Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A weak frontal boundary near the NE/KS state line this afternoon
will become the focus for thunderstorm formation this evening.
Expect convection starting to initiate across the high plains the
past hour to spread east through the late afternoon and evening
hours. With some modest elevated instability and decent 0-6 KM
shear values present...could see a few of these storms reach
severe criteria...with large hail being the primary focus. Not
surprisingly...most of the short term guidance is hinting at some
thunderstorm development near and on the cool side of this
boundary this evening. As a result...expect to see some strong to
marginally severe storms ride this boundary similar to
HRRR/RAP/NAM...and blended this guidance to come up with shower
and thunderstorm coverage for this evening.

With the fairly progressive nature of these showers and
thunderstorms tonight...expect precipitation to come to an end
before daybreak Saturday...with cooler air filtering in across
the local area tomorrow. While there could be some clearing across
the southwestern half of the area tomorrow...clouds will likely
linger east of highway 281...with a cloudy and cool afternoon
anticipated as clouds wrap around the departing surface low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A fairly active and seasonably cool start to the extended periods
is anticipated as troughiness across the west...followed by a
progressive northwestelry flow...will impact the local weather
through the end of next week.

While overall...not a lot of precipitation is anticipated with
a weak disturbance Saturday night...overnight low temperatures
came down a couple of degrees and these cooler lows justified the
continued mention of some light mixed precipitation across the
region. Evenso...qpf values will not amount to much...so do not
think this will be a large concern for the time being.

Thereafter...additional chances for precipitation are anticipated
periodically through the end of the week...as multiple weak
disturbances make their way across the local area. While no
particular day appears too threatening...could see a few isolated
thunderstorms in spots anywhere from late Sunday night through
Tuesday morning...although at this point they do not appear that
they will approach severe limits. Thereafter...the temperatures
will fluctuate around seasonal norms through the end of next
week...with some additional small chances of precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The main aviation forecast concern is in the first 6 hours with
the chance of thunderstorms, then a continued chance for IFR
ceilings to persist into the morning hours. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed and will impact both the KEAR/KGRI
terminals in the first 3 to 6 hours, with the best chance in the
first 3 hours. Have VCTS at this juncture, but will likely amend
for prevailing Thunderstorms. After the thunderstorms exit, low
clouds are expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings persisting into the
morning hours. Winds will become northerly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
240 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241945-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
240 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late
afternoon through evening hours. There is a slight risk that some
of these storms could produce hail to the size of quarters and
wind gusts to 60 mph...especially near the Nebraska and Kansas
state lines.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A wintry mix of freezing rain...sleet...and snow could occur
across portions of south central Nebraska late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts will be very light.

In addition...a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the outlook area late Sunday night through Monday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters...please relay any reports of hail or strong thunderstorm
wind gusts to the National Weather Service late this afternoon
and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

NEZ082-083-240030-
Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
659 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FURNAS AND NORTHERN
HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hollinger, or 23 miles north of Norton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Orleans, Stamford, Huntley and Hollinger.

LAT...LON 4035 9961 4035 9934 4018 9921 4007 9978
      4023 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 239DEG 33KT 4016 9975

Billings Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
740 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

NEZ082-240115-
Furnas NE-
740 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 740 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wilsonville, or 22 miles northwest of Norton, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Beaver City, Wilsonville, Hendley and Hollinger.

LAT...LON 4021 10019 4027 9963 4000 9963 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 268DEG 33KT 4013 10006

Billings Wright

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
745 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             5 NW HUNTLEY            40.26N 99.36W
03/23/2018  U0.75 INCH       HARLAN             NE   STORM CHASER

            45 MPH WINDS.

&&

THIES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
750 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             WILSONVILLE             40.11N 100.10W
03/23/2018  E0.50 INCH       FURNAS             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

THIES