High Wind Watch 1, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1213 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

Satellite shows clear skies across the region. There is a surface
low to the west of the forecast area with a weak surface front
across the central part of the forecast area.

The surface front is expected to move slowly north and allow
temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s. The front will
turn the winds toward the south as the front moves to the north.
Winds will increase during the day and become gusty. The warm
temperatures and breezy conditions will cause some areas to have
near critical fire weather conditions. The driest air will be in the
western part of the area mainly to the west of a line from Lexington
to Stockton, but the winds are lighter in that area since it is
nearer to the surface low. The temperatures and dew points will need
to be watched this afternoon to see if the relative humidity gets
lower or if the winds become stronger.

The south winds across the area will bring additional moisture to
the area during the day. All of the models have some moisture
spreading across the area late this afternoon and especially this
evening. Expect that there could be a few clouds in the east during
the afternoon. The clouds are expected to spread across the area
during the evening. Toward morning, there is a weak upper level wave
that moves through the area and models have some light
precipitation. There could be some drizzle in the northern part of
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 421 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

A strong spring storm system remains on track to impact the region
beginning Sunday...before departing the local area on Tuesday. This
well advertised storm will be proceeded by strong southerly winds
and near critical to critical fire weather conditions across parts
of the area Sunday afternoon.

While afternoon temperatures Sunday will likely reach 70 or higher
in many locations...conditions will not exactly be pleasant and
stiff southerly breezes will accompany these warm temperatures. In
addition...the day will likely begin with widespread stratus across
the local area...with some drizzle also possible across the
northeastern portion of the local forecast area. As this stratus
thins and lifts northeast of the local area by afternoon...winds
will increase...with southerly gusts of at least 30 mph likely.

With the departing stratus...instability will also build by afternoon
and the strong CAP will erode...with 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE and an
approaching frontal boundary justifying the mention of thunderstorms
across much of the local area. In fact...the local area remains
highlighted in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms...with
strong thunderstorm wind gusts likely being the main severe
threat...with marginally severe hail also not out of the question.

As the main front pushes south across the local area Sunday
night...winds will really ramp up across the local area...with
sustained winds of 40 mph likely accompanies by wind gusts to 60
mph. Because of this...and high wind watch/warning will likely
eventually become necessary, but felt it was too soon this morning
to heist a headline of this nature. As a result...issued another SPS
to advertise the multiple impactful elements expected across the
region with this system. With the very strong winds and near
critical relative humidity values forecast across north central
Kansas...could also very well need a fire weather headline as well
Monday afternoon. While the main system will be moving east of the
local area by Tuesday...continued strong northerly winds are
expected across the local area with any remaining precip across our
area exiting the region late in the day Tuesday.
Overall...precipitation wise...this system will likely not carry
much of a punch across the local area...with the bulk any rain or
snow lying just to the north of the local area...and the main local
impacts being increased fire weather concerns and very strong winds.

Beyond Tuesday...dry conditions and primarily near to above normal
temperatures are expected through the extended periods as west to
northwesterly flow is anticipated...with no significant embedded
disturbances...through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

VFR conditions will persist through the daylight hours today with
south winds and mostly clear skies. Low level wind shear will be a
concern during the evening through the overnight hours. Low
stratus will spread northward, impacting both terminals during the
overnight hours with conditions dropping to IFR or lower at both
terminals. Winds will remain southerly and there could be some
drizzle and visbility impacts. Did not include any visibility
reductions at this time, but something to watch for on later
issuances.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
658 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
041200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
658 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon,
mainly to the west of a line from Lexington Nebraska to Stockton
Kansas.

Warm temperatures will increase the threat of ice jams
and ice jam flooding. The Platte River and the branches of the
Loup River have the highest risk for ice jams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Fluctuating temperatures...with several days well above
normal...will result in the break up and melting of river
ice...increasing the threat of ice jams and ice jam flooding through
the upcoming week. The Platte River and the branches of the Loup
River have the highest risk for ice jams.

Sunday afternoon...near critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected to develop primarily along and southwest
of a line extending from Elwood, Nebraska to Osborne, Kansas.
Critical to near critical conditions will again be a concern
Monday with the very strong winds and low relative humidity
values...along and south of I-80. On Tuesday near critical
conditions will again be possible primarily across north central
Kansas.

In addition...there will be a chance for thunderstorms across
portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas Sunday
evening...with a marginal risk for an isolated severe thunderstorm
or two.

Finally...high winds are expected Sunday night through Monday night.
Sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph are likely...with gusts to 60 mph.
Winds will again be strong on Tuesday with sustained speeds of 25 to
35 mph and gusts to 45 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings