Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
708 PM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Evening Update (7pm MDT): Only tweaks to the forecast for the
coming 24 hour period are to MaxT/MinT and winds to account for
the building high pressure over the region. Left the next storm
system alone for now as the narrative and model solutions are
doing a good job of resolving it, and thus is currently reflected
well enough in the grids to not require edits for the evening
package. Bigelbach

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The cold front that pushed through Northeast
Montana remains well to the southwest. With northwest flow,
surface and aloft, most temperatures today only got into the teens
and 20s, around 25-30 degrees below normal. With an upper ridge
off to the west, the northwest flow aloft will continue tonight.
An Arctic surface high will maintain mostly clear skies tonight
for another round of single digit lows, some below zero. The
surface high will cause winds to become light and variable, so
dangerous wind chills are not expected.

Sunday, a developing storm system near Vancouver Island will send
additional moisture into Montana. By evening, snow is expected
that will spread over Northeast Montana through Monday evening.
The storm will cover all of central and parts of eastern Montana.
Snow total amount range from zero to 8 inches for our area. Mainly
used FB for this storm, which produced headline snow. As a result,
in coordination with surrounding offices, issued a winter storm
watch.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper ridge in the west reestablishes
itself, although the stationary front keeps our region on the cold
side.

Thursday, another Arctic low descending into Manitoba and more
Pacific moisture will conspire to generate another winter storm
for Thursday and Friday. Models diverge quite a bit at this point.
Most have this system loses strength as it runs into the Rockies,
leaving northeast Montana with periods of precipitation. A lot
can change by then, so will see how this progresses over the next
few days.

Templer

&&

.AVIATION...

Expected Flight Category: VFR

Synopsis: A small and short-lived high pressure system builds over
the region tonight. This will lead to VFR conditions across the
region. Slight chances for some visibility reduction due to
freezing fog exist mainly at GGW tomorrow morning, but not likely.
Another approaching winter-like storm system moves its way in
tomorrow evening and could hinder operations through Monday.

Wind: Northwest winds at 10-15 kts will become light and variable
overnight and through much of the morning. After around midday,
winds will shift to the southeast at 7-12 kts across the sites.

Bigelbach

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...McCone...
Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...Prairie...
Richland...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow