Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
705 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...

7PM UPDATE:
Changes to the forecast included the latest blend of hourly
models for PoPs which seem to be matching the radar rather well.
Used a blend of NAMNest, RAP, GFS1hr, and HRRR. Thunderstorms look
to stay contricted to the southern zones with maybe a single cell
or two briefly becoming severe before midnight over southern
Garfield county to the far southeast. GAH

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION:
Generally clear skies continue across the area, but clouds will
quickly fill in across the west and southeast areas as a trough
associated with an upper-level low swings across the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will generally move in from west to east
after 6PM this evening with fairly widespread precipitation
expected.

Weak to moderate instability is present generally along and south
of the Missouri River. As the trough swings across, bulk shear
will increase to 55 to 65 knots, setting the stage for a few
strong to severe storms. The main threat will be damaging winds,
though some marginally severe hail will be possible as well. North
of the river, general thunderstorms can be expected with locally
heavy rain.

All precipitation should be out of the area by Wednesday morning
with zonal flow transitioning to weak ridging by Wednesday
evening. Independence Day will be characterized by a mostly sunny
sky with high temperatures in the upper 70s. It will also be a bit
breezy as westerly winds gust to 20 to 25 mph.

A ridge strengthens over the region for the remainder of the week,
centering over the area on Friday. This will lead to rapidly
warming temperatures with highs in the middle and upper 80s on
Thursday. By Friday, highs will be in the middle 90s to low 100s
with dewpoints ranging from the middle 50s out west to the middle
60s along the North Dakota border. This will lead to oppressive
heat, therefore a heat advisory has been issued from 11 AM to 8
PM MDT Friday.

Even though a weak front will move through late Friday night into
Saturday turning winds to the northwest, temperatures will still
be hot Saturday with highs in the middle 90s. Temperatures will
fall back into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday into early next
week, with generally dry weather expected. A shortwave trough may
move across the area Monday afternoon triggering a few showers,
but there remains a lot of uncertainty with how strong the ridge
will be at that point.

-Mottice

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT: VFR-MVFR.

DISCUSSION: An upper trough will trigger shower and thunderstorm
development this evening and move east through tonight. There may
be brief periods of MVFR conditions at times with any
thunderstorm. Showers and storms will exit east of the area by
Wednesday mid-morning with clearing skies in the late morning.

WIND: Variable at 5 to 10 kts through this evening, becoming
northwest to west tonight. Expect gusty and erratic winds in any
thunderstorm.

/GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for Central and
Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Daniels...
Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...McCone...Northern
Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...Prairie...Richland...
Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
724 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018

MTZ017-022-040215-
Garfield MT-Central and Southern Valley MT-
724 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN VALLEY
AND WESTERN MCCONE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

At 723 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 21 miles northwest of Hell Creek Rec Area to 15
miles southeast of Mosby. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jordan, The Pines Rec Area, Sand Springs, Hell Creek Rec Area,
Edwards, Cohagen, Rock Creek Rec Area, Brusett, Hillside, Haxby, Van
Norman and Steve Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4686 10672 4685 10765 4794 10719 4793 10636
      4787 10636 4787 10626 4753 10626 4753 10630
      4736 10630 4735 10627 4684 10635 4684 10672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 277DEG 29KT 4788 10716 4684 10764

GAH

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