Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1017 AM MDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Morning Update: Only update this morning was to the wind forecast,
raising up the winds especially along the border with North Dakota
where the pressure gradient looks to continue to tighten up a bit
as the low deepens a bit more before the upper-level low catches
up and fills in the low slowly over the weekend. Otherwise the
forecast was still in good shape, and no further changes were
necessary. Bigelbach

Surface low and cold front will be along the Montana/Dakota border
this morning. Upper level trough will move into Western Montana
this morning. Moist and unstable air mass will linger over the
forecast area today with occasional showers and thunderstorms
across the region. The cold front will move slowly east across
the Dakotas this afternoon and evening while the upper trough
moves through Central and Eastern Montana. Tight surface gradient
will allow for gusty northwest winds this afternoon. Will issue a
Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. Areas near the North Dakota
border may be unstable enough this afternoon for a severe
thunderstorm.

The surface low and upper low becomes stacked over Southeast
Saskatchewan tonight. At this time, it looks like the effects of
the wrap around moisture for the forecast area will be limited to
the northeast corner of the state. Drier air will build into the
remainder of the region tonight.

High pressure builds into the forecast area on Saturday with
mainly dry weather. However, gusty northwest winds will continue
which will require the Lake Wind Advisory to remain in effect.
Those winds will diminish Saturday evening as the center of the
surface high passes through.

Upper level ridge moves in on Sunday with dry weather and warmer
temperatures.

The ridge moves to the east on Monday. Expect a warm day ahead of
a shortwave trough and cold front that moves through the area
Monday Night with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Another wave in WSW flow aloft in WSW flow aloft Tuesday Night
could bring a chance of showers. Then, another wave could bring a
chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Forrester

&&

.AVIATION...

Expected Flight Category: MVFR to VFR

Synopsis: Lingering low pressure east of the region will keep
chances for showers and some thunderstorms over northeast Montana
today, before high pressure returns later this evening, clearing
out much of the sky cover and returning the region to relatively
dry conditions for the weekend.

WIND: Northeast 10 to 20 kts early. Winds will become light and
variable this morning. Then northwest winds 15 to 25 knots will
develop this afternoon and continue at 10 to 20 knots tonight.

Forrester/Bigelbach

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday For Fort Peck Lake
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
805 AM MDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MCCLOUD 13WNW/BIG SHEEP 47.03N 105.80W
06/01/2018  M65 MPH          PRAIRIE            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LCFM8, MCCLOUD 13WNW/BIG
            SHEEP MTN.

&&

BCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
116 PM MDT FRI JUN 1 2018

MTZ022-023-026-012015-
Garfield MT-Prairie MT-McCone MT-
116 PM MDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD...SOUTHERN
MCCONE AND NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 116 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Hillside, or 28 miles northwest of Miles City,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hillside and Crow Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
northeastern Montana.

LAT...LON 4686 10584 4686 10609 4685 10609 4685 10647
      4718 10623 4718 10540 4683 10568 4683 10583
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 213DEG 36KT 4671 10625

Mottice