Wind Advisory 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

722 
WWUS74 KFWD 110627
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1227 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...Wind Advisory Thursday and Thursday Evening...

.A strong cold front will move across North and Central Texas
Thursday, increasing winds out of the north and northwest at
20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156>159-111430-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.180111T1500Z-180112T0600Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Lampasas, 
Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, and Waco
1227 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...Thursday morning through Midnight Friday.

* WINDS...Northwest at 20-30 mph behind the front, with gusts to 
  around 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured 
  may easily be displaced. High profile vehicles may experience 
  difficultly traveling on area roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans...lawn furniture...and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

740 
WWUS74 KFWD 110931
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...Wind Advisory in effect across North and Central Texas...

.A strong cold front will move across North and Central Texas
today, increasing winds out of the north and northwest at 20 to 
30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph.

TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175-111800-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.180111T2000Z-180112T0600Z/
Freestone-Anderson-Falls-Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, 
Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, 
Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, 
and Calvert
331 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight
CST tonight. 

* TIMING...This afternoon until midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Northwest at 20-30 mph behind the front, with gusts to 
  around 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured 
  may easily be displaced. High profile vehicles may experience 
  difficultly traveling on area roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans...lawn furniture...and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156>159-111800-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.180111T1500Z-180112T0600Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Lampasas, 
Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, and Waco
331 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...This morning through midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Northwest at 20-30 mph behind the front, with gusts to 
  around 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured 
  may easily be displaced. High profile vehicles may experience 
  difficultly traveling on area roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans...lawn furniture...and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

848 
WWUS74 KFWD 111735
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018


TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156>159-120200-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180112T0600Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Lampasas, 
Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, and Waco
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...through midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Northwest at 20-35 mph behind the front, with gusts to 
  around 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured 
  may easily be displaced. High profile vehicles may experience 
  difficultly traveling on area roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans...lawn furniture...and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175-120200-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.180111T2000Z-180112T0600Z/
Freestone-Anderson-Falls-Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, 
Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, 
Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, 
and Calvert
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...Mid afternoon until midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Northwest at 20-30 mph behind the front, with gusts to 
  around 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured 
  may easily be displaced. High profile vehicles may experience 
  difficultly traveling on area roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans...lawn furniture...and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

930 
WWUS74 KFWD 120344
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
944 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...


TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141>143-156-157-120445-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180112T0600Z/
Young-Jack-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Eastland-Erath-Comanche-Mills-
Hamilton-Lampasas-Coryell-
Including the cities of Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Breckenridge, 
Mineral Wells, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, 
Dublin, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Lampasas,
Copperas Cove, and Gatesville
944 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 



$$

TXZ091>095-102>107-117>123-131>135-144>146-158-159-120600-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180112T0600Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Wise-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-
Hopkins-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-
Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-Bell-
McLennan-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, 
Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, 
Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Weatherford, 
Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, 
Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, 
Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Granbury, 
Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, 
Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Clifton, Meridian, 
Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, 
and Waco
944 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...through midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Northwest at 20-35 mph behind the front, with gusts to 
  around 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured 
  may easily be displaced. High profile vehicles may experience 
  difficultly traveling on area roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans...lawn furniture...and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175-120600-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180112T0600Z/
Freestone-Anderson-Falls-Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, 
Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, 
Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, 
and Calvert
944 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...Mid afternoon until midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Northwest at 20-30 mph behind the front, with gusts to 
  around 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured 
  may easily be displaced. High profile vehicles may experience 
  difficultly traveling on area roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans...lawn furniture...and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

043 
WWUS74 KFWD 120553
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1153 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CST...

TXZ091>095-102>107-117>123-131>135-144>146-158-159-120700-
/O.EXP.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180112T0600Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Wise-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-
Hopkins-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-
Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-Bell-
McLennan-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, 
Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, 
Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Weatherford, 
Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, 
Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, 
Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Granbury, 
Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, 
Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Clifton, Meridian, 
Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, 
and Waco
1153 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

The strong northerly winds that have gusted over 40 mph at times
on Thursday are starting to slowly decrease. Wind speeds of 20 to
25 mph with gusts over 30 mph are expected through the overnight 
hours. The combination of the wind and the temperature will result
in wind chill readings in the single digits and teens. 



$$

TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175-120700-
/O.EXP.KFWD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180112T0600Z/
Freestone-Anderson-Falls-Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, 
Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, 
Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, 
and Calvert
1153 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

The strong northerly winds that have gusted over 40 mph at times 
on Thursday are starting to slowly decrease. Wind speeds of 15 to 
25 mph with gusts over 30 mph are expected through the overnight 
hours. The combination of the wind and the temperature will result
in wind chill readings in the teens. 


$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR and IFR cigs. Very strong northwest winds behind
Thursday's cold front, and a chance for a wintry mix across the
DFW airports on Thursday afternoon.

MVFR and IFR cigs will mostly prevail through the valid TAF
period, but there may be a brief period of scattering this
afternoon. The cloud deck that covers much of North and Central
Texas this morning is slowly eroding from the west. By 20-21Z,
skies at KFTW and KAFW may be scattered, and the clearing line
may approach KDFW and KGKY. If skies do not scatter at the
remainder of the TAF sites, they will likely become BKN between
1-2 kft. IFR cigs are expected to quickly return this evening and
prevail through tonight. On Thursday morning, the ceilings should
improve to MVFR, and they may clear for a short period ahead of
the approaching cold front, but MVFR cigs are expected behind the
front. At this time, do not have a mention of precipitation in
the TAF, but patchy drizzle may occur tonight, and then there may
be a short period of a light snow/sleet mix across the DFW
airports Thursday afternoon.

Breezy south winds of 12-20 kts with higher gusts will
prevail through tonight. As the strong cold front approaches, the
winds will shift to the southwest and west, and then become
northwest behind the front at speeds of 20-30 kts with gusts
potentially as high as 40 kts. An AWW will likely be needed for
non-convective wind gusts.

JLDunn

&&

.UPDATE... /Issued 1047 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/
The ongoing forecast for today is in good shape and only minor
changes were needed. Areas of fog across the region this morning
are expected to improve this afternoon, but cloudy skies will
prevail across mainly the eastern half of the region. This is also
where temperatures will likely be confined in the upper 40s and
50s. Farther west, temperatures are expected to warm into the
upper 60s to mid 70s with mostly sunny skies and breezy south
winds. Weather conditions will change starting tonight as a strong
upper level system and a strong cold front arrive. There is a
chance for rain across the eastern portions of the region, and
then a chance for a light snow/sleet mix behind the front in the
afternoon hours. At this time, we are analyzing new model data to
determine if the area of wintry mix needs to be expanded. Because
this system will be fast moving, accumulations are expected to be
minor, and impacts very minimal. We will have more information on
the afternoon forecast package.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 354 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

The upper low responsible for the wet weather across Southern
California is currently moving east across Arizona, and will
continue working its way east towards the Southern Plains over the
next 24 hours. Isentropic lift ahead of the system continues to
result in low clouds and fog across the eastern half of the
forecast area. In addition to the reduction in visibilities,
this area of clouds and fog will continue to produce
uncomfortably cool and damp conditions through much of the day.
Fortunately, due to a tightening pressure gradient, surface winds
have been strong enough to mitigate the dense fog threat.
Visibilities have been running generally in the 2 to 5 mile range,
with a few isolated spots down around a mile. The expectation at
this time is that a dense fog advisory is unlikely, but we will
nonetheless keep a close eye on visibility trends over the next
several hours, particularly in the vicinity of the clearing line
where dense fog development would be most likely should it occur.

Conditions will improve as we approach midday and limited amounts
of solar radiation penetrate the cloud deck, allowing stronger
winds to mix their way to the surface. However, even as
visibilities improve, low clouds will likely linger roughly along
and east of the I-35 corridor where a stout inversion will be
difficult to mix-out. The high temperature forecast will be rather
challenging, as temps will struggle to exceed 50 degrees in the
areas of thick cloud cover, but will climb into the 60s and 70s
where clouds are absent. Based on the latest guidance and recent
satellite trends, the high temperature grid will indicate 50s
along and east of the I-35 corridor, with 60s immediately west of
the cloud deck. In the western-most counties, mid 70s will be
attainable due to plentiful sun and a slight southwest component
within the low level wind field. Warm and breezy conditions will
create elevated grass fire concerns across the west during peak
heating hours, with these conditions abating by sunset.

Low clouds along with the possibility of patchy fog and drizzle
will return tonight as a cold front approaches the Red River.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 354 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

Thursday will start off warm and muggy with temperatures in the
lower 50s and persistent shallow moisture in place resulting in
extensive cloud cover. Significant changes will occur through the
morning though as a powerful upper trough swings through North
Texas. Southerly winds will be gusty in the morning ahead of a
surface low which should be centered somewhere across southwest
Oklahoma. As the upper trough moves east through the day, the
surface low will track eastward and drag a strong cold front
southward into Texas. The front should enter our northwest
counties during the early morning hours and should clear the CWA
by midday, so it will be fast moving. Despite the very strong
forcing for ascent, moisture appears to be too shallow in nature
for any convection to develop. It looks like this shallow moisture
will get mixed rather quickly as the front barrels through.
Farther east, where moisture depth increases, the frontal forcing
combined with the overall strong large scale forcing should be
sufficient for scattered showers to develop during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. We'll keep 20-40% PoPs confined
to our far eastern counties to account for this. It is entirely
possible that the front clears the CWA with no significant liquid
precipitation.

We still continue to closely monitor the potential for a quick
shot of some wintry precipitation as the center of the upper
trough passes through North Texas Thursday afternoon. Latest
guidance continues to indicate that a fairly intense band of
mid level ascent between 600-400mb will be present from central
Oklahoma southward into North Texas during the afternoon hours.
This band of lift develops across northwest Texas around midday
and spreads eastward with the center of the trough axis into the
evening hours. While upward vertical motions alone are not that
concerning, the fact that they will be occurring within an area
that becomes saturated with lapse rates > 8C/km becomes much more
interesting in that this scenario would support the development of
convective snow bands with the potential for some bursts of brief
heavy snow. The 6Z NAM continues to support this scenario and
forecast soundings from Bowie/Gainesville show a brief period
during the mid afternoon hours where near saturation occurs with a
profile below freezing. With the steep lapse rates and increasing
confidence that moisture will be available within an area of
strong ascent, we'll raise PoPs to 20-40% in a narrow band from
the Metroplex northwestward and mention a snow/sleet mix. If any
convective bands can develop, there would certainly be the
potential for some minor light accumulations under any bursts of
snow. At this time, we don't see the need for any winter weather
advisories, but this is certainly on the table for Thursday
afternoon. Any snow would be short lived as the upper trough will
move eastward quickly Thursday evening with temperatures falling
into the lower 30s by the evening hours. Strong north winds will
result in wind chills in the lower 20s.

Beyond Thursday, we'll enter a period of rather quiet weather
into the weekend, although another strong reinforcing cold front
will swing through the Plains on Saturday. This will help keep
temperatures cold through the weekend with highs struggling to get
out of the 30s on Saturday and 40s on Sunday. As we get into
early next week, we're going to have to monitor the potential for
more wintry weather by Tuesday. Another strong front looks like it
will move through North Texas sometime on Monday. The GFS/ECMWF
diverge on the handling of the upper pattern during this time with
the GFS more amplified and colder. While colder may seem worse,
it is also drier and shunts the moisture southward into Deep South
Texas keeping our area mostly dry. The ECMWF is more zonal and
keeps stout warm advection atop a near freezing airmass Tuesday
into mid week. This results in quite a bit more precipitation
across North Texas and what could pan out to be a messing freezing
rain event. We'll keep a close eye on this pattern as several of
the GFS/ECMWF ensemble members show a cold and wet pattern next
week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  51  53  29  47 /   5   5  20   0   0
Waco                61  51  57  29  51 /   5  10  10   0   0
Paris               54  51  57  25  43 /  10  10  30  10   0
Denton              60  49  51  25  46 /   5   5  30   0   0
McKinney            56  50  53  26  45 /   5  10  20   0   0
Dallas              58  52  54  28  47 /   5  10  20   0   0
Terrell             57  52  56  27  46 /   5  10  20   5   0
Corsicana           57  53  57  28  47 /   5  10  20   5   0
Temple              62  51  58  30  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       66  46  49  25  50 /   5   5  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

82/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
400 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111000-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
400 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Fog and drizzle along and east of a line from Bowie to Lampasas may
reduce visibilities below a mile at times this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
There is a slight chance of sleet or snow north of a line from Paris
to Waxahachie to Stephenville on Thursday, as a strong cold front and
upper level disturbance move across the area. Minor accumulations
will be possible, especially along the Red River.

Reinforcing arctic fronts will arrive on Saturday and Monday,
leading to below-normal temperatures this weekend through early next
week. Wintry precipitation will be possible along and north of a line
from Athens to Goldthwaite Monday night and Tuesday of next week.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to this weather
system, but more details will come into light as model data comes
into better agreement over the next few days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.