Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
326 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Through tonight/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
through sunset as a daytime heating interacts with a moist and
unstable atmosphere. The best coverage of storms will be across
the eastern half of the region where moisture is most abundant.
The primary hazards with storms this afternoon/evening will be
damaging downburst winds. Some hail will also be possible but
significant melting through a deep warm layer will keep hail
generally below severe limits. Storms will decrease in coverage
after sunset and should dissipate by mid to late evening.

Otherwise, it will remain warm and humid tonight with overnight
lows in the middle and upper 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Friday/
A moist and unstable atmosphere will remain over North and Central
Texas through next week which will keep at least some low
rain/thunderstorm chances in the forecast along with near normal
temperatures.

Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the Four
Corners region Saturday and Sunday while an easterly wave moves
along the Lower Texas Coast. While large scale lift will be weak,
there will be enough instability and moisture for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms with the best coverage across
our Central Texas counties. Deep easterly flow through the
troposphere will keep deep layer shear weak and moisture/precipitable
water values high. Therefore, storms will be brief, scattered in
coverage but fairly efficient rain producers and also capable of
gusty downburst winds. There is still a concern for new fire
starts from lightning strikes, especially across the western half
of the area since fine fuels are cured and abundant. The only
good news on the fire front is that the increase in moisture will
keep slightly cooler temperatures and higher afternoon relative
humidity. Also, prevailing wind speeds will be generally less
than 10 mph (outside of outflow winds from thunderstorms) which
will keep fire spread low.

The upper level ridge will become more elongated and shift
slightly eastward to the Central Plains next week which will keep
North and Central Texas on the unsettled southern side of the
ridge. Several weak waves will translate from east to west across
the region and keep at least low shower and thunderstorm chances
every afternoon next week. The best chances will be across the
east and southeast zones where moisture will be the most abundant.

Temperatures early next week will be close to seasonal normals
but should creep up slightly mid to late week as the upper ridge
amplifies over the Central Plains. It does appear that most areas
will remain below the Century mark through next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns: Diurnally driven convection. Gusty outflow winds from
nearby convection causing wind changes.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible at all the
airports this afternoon, and potentially on Saturday afternoon,
too. Brief heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds will be
possible with any storms that impact airports through the early
evening hours. Gusty winds may also occur outside of convection
from outflow boundaries, and may also result in sudden wind
shifts.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will occur through the period. The wind
direction will generally be from the northeast with periodic
deviations towards the north and/or east. Wind speeds are
expected to remain less than 11 kts, with the exception of
convective and outflow boundary activity.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  94  76  92  76 /  40  20  20  30  30
Waco                75  96  73  93  74 /  40  50  40  40  40
Paris               73  91  72  89  72 /  40  20  20  30  30
Denton              76  95  74  93  74 /  30  20  20  20  20
McKinney            77  93  71  92  69 /  40  20  20  30  20
Dallas              80  95  77  94  77 /  40  20  20  30  30
Terrell             77  94  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  40  30
Corsicana           77  94  73  92  73 /  40  50  40  40  40
Temple              74  94  72  91  72 /  40  60  40  50  40
Mineral Wells       74  95  73  93  73 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

79/82

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.
There is a chance for thunderstorms across all of  North and Central
Texas through this evening. The main thunderstorm hazards will be
strong wind gusts, lightning and brief heavy rain.

For locations west of I-35 that do not receive any rain...there will
be a continued threat for grass fires.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Thunderstorms will be possible across most or all of North Texas
Saturday through Thursday. The main thunderstorm hazards will be
strong wind gusts, lightning and brief heavy rain.

The grass fire threat will still exist west of I-35...especially for
regions that see little to no rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Very limited spotter activation will be possible through sunset.

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