River Flood Warning 87, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.AVIATION...
Cool and moist post-frontal air will remain in place across all
TAF sites, resulting in generally IFR to low end MVFR ceilings
this evening and overnight with some patchy fog (VSBY 3 to 5 SM).
The cold front will briefly lift back to the north on Sunday,
resulting a return of south flow and a surge of moisture which
will keep IFR to low end MVFR ceilings in place through the day. A
much stronger cold front will reach the Metroplex TAF sites near
or just after 00Z Monday. An abrupt north wind shift will
accompany the cold front along with a good chance of
thunderstorms.

79

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 347 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018/
/Tonight/

Thunderstorms will end from northwest to southeast through sunset
with the passage of the upper level shortwave and the arrival of
cooler and drier air behind a cold front. We will not remove PoPs
across the south completely tonight since the cold front may have
a difficult time clearing the CWA.

We will clear several of the western counties out of Tornado Watch
413 with the release of the afternoon package, but will leave the
southeast zones in the watch through its duration since they will
remain in the unstable and highly sheared warm sector.

Even though much of the rain will end before 7 PM, we will let
the current Flash Flood ride until expiration to account for
lingering street flooding.

Otherwise, it will remain cloudy and damp through the night with
patchy areas of fog. However, extensive cloud cover should prevent
widespread dense fog from developing. The cloud cover will also
keep low temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 347 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018/
/Sunday through Friday/

A very unsettled weather pattern is expected across the entire
region Sunday through next weekend with multiple opportunities for rain
and very cool/cold temperatures.

Sunday will be somewhat of a transitional day as today's cold
front attempts to lift back to the north in response to another
developing low pressure system in the west. As the front lifts
northward it will interact with lingering moisture to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The better chance of storms
will arrive across the northwest zones late Sunday afternoon when
a strong cold front enters the region. There will be some
potential for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon with
moderate mid level lapse rate and favorable shear. The extent of
the severe weather will largely hinge on how much the air can heat
up in the warm sector given the extensive cloud cover expected.
Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary hazards with the
strongest storms.

The front will move through the entire region Sunday night/Monday,
bringing much colder and breezy conditions along with some post
frontal showers and thunderstorms. Post frontal precipitation
chances will continue Monday night/Tuesday as a cutoff low
deepens over the Desert Southwest, supplying large scale lift and
moisture.

This general wet and cool pattern will persist through
the end of the week. We will likely need another flash flood watch
for portions if not all of the area for at least the first half
of next week, but for now we will hold off on issuing one and let
later shifts assess what areas are most vulnerable to flooding.
The only good news is that the mid level instability will decrease
next week so convective precip will be less likely.

Precipitation chances will end from north to south Friday
night/next Saturday when another strong cold front moves across
the Southern Plains.

After a much warmer day Sunday with highs in the 70s and 80s,
temperatures will cool significantly with highs Monday and Tuesday
generally in the 40s and lower 50s. We will even see some lows in
the 30s across the northwest zones Sunday night and Monday night.
High temperatures Wednesday through Friday will slowly warm into
the 50s and lower 60s with lows mainly in 40s.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  77  43  47  43 /  10  50  80  80  80
Waco                65  84  48  50  46 /  20  40  80  80  80
Paris               60  75  46  49  44 /  20  40  80  80  70
Denton              57  75  42  46  43 /  10  50  80  80  70
McKinney            59  76  44  47  44 /  10  50  80  80  70
Dallas              62  78  45  48  45 /  10  50  80  80  80
Terrell             63  79  47  50  46 /  20  50  80  80  80
Corsicana           65  82  49  51  46 /  30  40  80  80  80
Temple              67  84  48  50  46 /  40  40  80  80  80
Mineral Wells       58  78  41  46  42 /  10  50  80  80  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

79/25

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             10 SE ATHENS            32.10N  95.73W
10/13/2018  E1.50 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER ON 175
            SOUTH OF ATHENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILDRED                 32.04N  96.34W
10/13/2018                   NAVARRO            TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF DAMAGE NEAR MILDRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TORNADO          4 SE TEAGUE             31.54N  96.18W
10/13/2018                   FREESTONE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO 7 NNW OF BUFFALO.