Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Fort Worth, TX

953 
WGUS74 KFWD 080037
FFSFWD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
737 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2018

TXC113-080042-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180908T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dallas TX-
737 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

The bulk of the heavy rain has ended in central Dallas County, but 
creeks and streams in the area may remain swollen or out of their 
banks. Rainfall has exceeded 2 inches northwest of downtown.

Motorists should continue to exercise caution. Please continue to 
heed any remaining road closures. Turn around; don't drown.

A flash flood warning remains in effect in western Dallas County.

LAT...LON 3291 9678 3275 9673 3275 9686 3291 9690

$$

25

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
315 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Through Tonight/

Efficient rain-producing showers and thunderstorms associated
with a slow-moving cold front are trekking into the northwestern
zones this afternoon. Scattered activity has blossomed over our
southern zones as well. Given the moderate instability, moisture
content, and upper level support will allow for diurnally driven
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to increase in
coverage this afternoon. This activity will likely impact the
afternoon commute, especially in areas where the heavier
thunderstorms develop.

A tropical environment, with PWATs in excess of 2", skinny CAPE
profile soundings, and weak mean winds will continue to pose a
flash flooding threat through tonight. Much of the region has
already received plentiful rainfall, and similar to previous days,
isolated heavy rainfall will occur. HREF QPF probabilities
continue to key in on the Metroplex and points southwestward
likely seeing isolated higher amounts of 2-3".

As we head into the evening, some of the diurnally driven
activity will begin to wane. However, along remnant outflow
boundaries and the slow-moving cold front, where the highest
convergence is, the potential for showers and thunderstorms
exists. For those attending outdoor events this evening, make sure
to have a weather safety plan. Even though severe weather is not
expected, heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds up to 30 mph will
be the main threats.

We expanded the Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning to
include Bell, McLennan, Kaufman, and Rockwall counties to account
for the latest radar trends and QPF flash flood guidance. Since
the ground has become more saturated over the past few days, the
threat for rapid runoff increases. Given the tropical
environment, convergence along the front, and support from the
upper level trough, kept 30-50% PoPs across the region for
tonight.

Villanueva

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Next Weekend/

A slow moving front will be situated across our southern-most
counties where scattered showers and occasional embedded
thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period.
Precipitable water amounts will be pushing 2.25 inches, so heavy
rain and the potential for localized flash flooding will be the
primary concern, with the focus shifting slowly south and east
with the front. Storm motion will increase slightly on Saturday
as westerly winds pick up around the base of the trough, but
training thunderstorms along the surface boundary will still
remain a good possibility. The position of the front will coincide
fairly closely with a mid-level trough axis, which will likewise
be moving slowly south and east with time.

The result will be a continued threat for locally heavy rain
across southern portions of the forecast area this weekend. At
this time, there is no plan to expand the Flood Watch
geographically or extend the watch in time for a couple of
reasons. One is that these areas were hit hard by the Summer
drought. The other is that mesoscale boundaries which tend to
push out ahead of the front may actually shift the focus for heavy
rain to areas just south of our Central Texas counties. That
said, we will need to keep an eye on trends during the evening and
overnight hours and may end up needing to adjust the watch based
on future trends.

The mid and upper level trough axis will shift east from East
Texas into Louisiana Sunday and Monday, forcing the front through
the entire forecast area and allowing a cooler airmass to fill in
from the north. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will range
from lows in the 60s to highs in the 80s, or slightly below
normal for this time of year.

A weak disturbance will kick off a few showers and afternoon
storms as it swings across the state during the midweek time-
frame, while temperatures gradually warm to near and just above
normal. An easterly wave will bring an influx of Gulf moisture
and increasing rain chances as it moves in from the east late next
week and the following weekend. Fortunately for Texas, it looks
like Tropical Storm Florence will remain in the Atlantic, but it
may become an issue for anyone with East Coast travel plans late
next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1256 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018/
/18Z TAFS/

Concerns: TSRA this afternoon, MVFR/IFR ceilings possible early
Saturday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as
a weak cold front moves into the region. Latest thinking is
activity will begin to develop around 19-20Z as we exceed our
convective temperature and stronger forcing is in place.

With this forecast issuance, opted to TEMPO +TSRA from 22-00Z for
the Metroplex TAF sites and 23-01Z for Waco. Will amend as needed
if TSRA prevails in the evening, but with the loss of daytime
heating, I'm not as confident in prevailing for a longer period,
and included VCSH through 04Z. The one factor that may cause a
few isolated thunderstorms this evening is the collision of
outflow boundaries, which we will monitor this afternoon.

Once this activity subsides, expect VFR conditions and northerly
winds to prevail through late tonight before a deck of post
frontal MVFR stratus treks its way into the TAF sites around 10Z.
Some guidance has hinted at IFR ceilings, but for now opted to
prevail MVFR. This potential will need to be addressed in future
forecast issuances.

Villanueva

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  83  69  83  67 /  60  60  30  10   5
Waco                74  85  70  84  66 /  70  70  50  30  10
Paris               71  84  66  81  66 /  50  50  40  10   5
Denton              72  82  66  81  65 /  50  50  30   5   5
McKinney            72  83  67  82  65 /  50  50  30  10   5
Dallas              74  83  69  84  68 /  60  60  40  10   5
Terrell             73  86  68  83  67 /  60  70  40  20   5
Corsicana           73  83  70  84  66 /  70  70  50  30  10
Temple              73  85  70  83  67 /  70  70  50  40  20
Mineral Wells       71  80  67  82  63 /  60  60  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ115>121-
129>134-141>146-156>159.

&&

22/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
310 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
310 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
tonight across North and Central Texas. There will be a threat for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially from the Metroplex
southward to areas along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday and Sunday
mainly along and south of I-20. Heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main threat through the weekend.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly east of I-
35 Monday through Thursday. Gusty winds and lightning will accompany
the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.