Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

The widespread thunderstorms that dominated the mid to late
afternoon brought one final round to the Metroplex around 00Z
(6 pm CST). Although some showers are still upstream, the forcing
responsible for the deeper convection is passing north of the
I-20 corridor, and a brief lull will precede a line of storms
approaching from the west. The AWW will be allowed to expire on
time (0030Z or 6:30 pm CST), but another will likely be needed
after 01Z (7 pm CST).

Strong southerly flow is advecting MUCAPE values in excess of 2000
J/kg that will soon interact with the advancing linear complex.
In addition, an axis of enhanced mid-level lapse rates closer to
the I-35 corridor will also aide in the line's intensification and
a corresponding uptick in lightning activity. This squall line
should continue peeling up the buoyant surface layer, and the
downward transport of momentum from a powerful low-level jet will
maintain the potential for damaging winds. Although outside the
current tornado watch, embedded tornadoes will also remain a
threat as the line reaches the I-35 corridor.

The line is expected to enter Tarrant County after 01Z (7 pm CST)
and move rapidly eastward across the Metroplex TAF sites. A
similar, but slightly delayed, time line is anticipated for Waco.
The squall will feature westerly winds, but backing will occur
within the trailing precipitation. A rapid clearing after midnight
will maintain VFR conditions with southwesterly flow into the
daylight hours Thursday.

The surface front associated with this storm system will arrive
Thursday afternoon, shifting the winds to the west then northwest.
Although it may mimic a Pacific front, the postfrontal air will be
cP in origin and not starved of moisture. As a result, stratocu
may briefly clutter the sky after FROPA, but the deck should be
primarily scattered.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 135 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this afternoon
along and west of the I-35 corridor, in response to a
strengthening low-level jet and warm-air advection regime
centered near the Big Country. General thinking is most of this
convection should remain rooted above a surface stable layer
for another hour or two. Still, will continue to monitor these
cells for any more notable surface-based characteristics, which
would suggest a quicker increase in the threat. Regardless, as
forcing for ascent with the primary shortwave trough (very evident
in satellite imagery over the Permian Basin) approaches North and
Central Texas, a line of storms is then expected to intensify as
it moves into our western counties around 6-8pm.

Ahead of this line, the strengthening low-level jet and
south/southeasterly surface flow will draw dew points in the lower
to possibly mid 60s northwestward through Central Texas towards
the Big Country. This should bring sufficient low-level and
mixed-layer CAPE (e.g., upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE)
to primarily areas south of I-20 and west of I-35 to support the
development of surface based updrafts through the evening hours.
In turn, a threat of a few damaging wind gusts, marginally severe
hail, and a few tornadoes is expected with this line, especially
given rather stout low-level flow. Farther north (generally I-20
and points northward), decreasing surface theta-e should limit the
severe threat more. Still, a few isolated damaging gusts will be
possible and a couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out
either during the late evening hours.

Storms should cross the I-35 corridor through about 8pm to
midnight, before reaching East Texas around 4am. The severe threat
should then come to an abrupt end with the departure of the line
to the east.

Picca

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 135 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/
/Thursday through Wednesday/
With the passage of the upper trough overnight, drier westerly
flow will prevail behind the Pacific front Thursday. Temperatures
will be near or even a little warmer than today compliments of
the downslope flow and sunny skies. Winds by the evening hours
will become more northwesterly as a surface high builds down in
through the Plains. This will begin a modest but persistent cold
advection regime over the region. Temperatures will gradually fall
and it will bring a few days of chilly weather. Friday's highs
will be in the mid 40s in the northwest zones to the mid 50s
southeast, and lows Friday night will range from the upper 20s
northwest to the upper 30s southeast.

By Saturday clouds and rain chances will increase as isentropic
lift sets up over the area in response to energy translating
through the Panhandles within a stationary positive tilt upper
level trough axis. Moisture will be a bit limited with this first
round of lift so the best rain chances, while still low, will be
across the southeastern half of the area. Another shortwave will
track through Texas in southwesterly flow aloft late Sunday and
we'll see more numerous showers, especially Sunday night. Again
the best chances of rain will be over the southeast half of the
CWA where moisture is greatest and PoPs will range from likely
there to slight chance in the northwest. Daytime temperatures will
be held down by the clouds and sporadic rainfall with 30s and 40s
for highs this weekend. Likewise the cloud cover will keep low
temperatures from cooling appreciably, so believe the threat for
any freezing rain is too low to mention. While one might normally
be concerned that we could see wet bulb cooling to force temps
below freezing, by this time wind speeds are nearly calm and
therefore it would be a situation where evaporative cooling is
minimal and warm raindrops are effectively transporting heat from
the cloud layer to the ground.

This round of rain will end during the day Monday from west to
east with the passage of the shortwave trough. Clearing skies and
drier weather will prevail through the end of the week.
Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly below normal.
New Years Eve and Day festivities look seasonably chilly, but
pleasant.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  64  37  51  34 /  90   0   0   0   0
Waco                51  67  39  55  36 /  90   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  66  36  50  33 /  90  10   0   0   5
Denton              50  63  34  48  32 /  90   0   0   0   0
McKinney            52  65  35  49  33 /  90   0   0   0   0
Dallas              53  66  37  51  35 /  90   0   0   0   0
Terrell             54  66  37  52  35 /  90   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           54  66  38  54  36 /  90   5   0   0   5
Temple              52  68  39  56  37 /  90   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       48  61  32  48  29 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

25/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
217 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271245-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
217 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to further develop
west of the I-35 corridor this afternoon. The primary threat will be
locally heavy rain and generally small hail. Isolated marginally
severe hail cannot be ruled out, though.

The severe threat will increase early this evening as storms develop
across western North Texas and Central North Texas through 6-8pm.
There will be a threat of damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and
a few tornadoes, especially south of I-20 and west of I-35.

Strong to severe storms should push across the I-35 corridor during
the late evening hours, and then move into East Texas after midnight.
There will be a continued threat of severe weather, with the highest
potential remaining south of I-20. Localized flash flooding will be
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
A few storms may linger along and east of a line from Hearne to
Canton early Thursday morning, with lightning and localized flooding
being the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely south of I-20 and west of I-35 this
afternoon, and area-wide this evening and overnight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

TXZ115-116-129-130-141-270100-
Palo Pinto TX-Comanche TX-Erath TX-Stephens TX-Eastland TX-
600 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ERATH...EASTERN EASTLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS...PALO PINTO AND COMANCHE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
CST...

At 600 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Possum Kingdom State Park to near Blanket.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stephenville, Mineral Wells, Comanche, Dublin, Ranger, De Leon,
Gorman, Graford, Gordon, Gustine, Huckabay, Morgan Mill, Possum
Kingdom State Park, Strawn and Mingus.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for central and
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3216 9875 3294 9859 3294 9806 3251 9807
      3209 9786 3192 9821 3184 9816 3168 9846
      3172 9850 3170 9867 3208 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 274DEG 37KT 3287 9853 3187 9873

Hernandez

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRECKENRIDGE            32.75N  98.90W
12/26/2018                   STEPHENS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 POWER LINES DOWN AND 1 BROKEN TELEPHONE POLE IN THE
            NORTHWEST PART OF THE CITY OF BRECKENRIDGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRECKENRIDGE            32.75N  98.90W
12/26/2018                   STEPHENS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE METAL BARN BLOWN OVER AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
            BRECKENRIDGE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
647 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

TXZ091-102-270130-
Montague TX-Wise TX-
647 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTAGUE AND NORTHWESTERN WISE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CST...

At 646 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Henrietta to near Bowie to 6 miles
southwest of Boonsville. Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Decatur, Bridgeport, Bowie, Nocona, Alvord, St. Jo, Chico,
Forestburg, Sunset, Boonsville, Stoneburg, Runaway Bay and Lake
Bridgeport.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for north central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3395 9759 3392 9760 3390 9758 3391 9748
      3335 9748 3300 9791 3343 9792 3344 9795
      3349 9798 3389 9798 3385 9785 3388 9780
      3390 9780 3390 9778 3392 9778 3391 9776
      3394 9776 3394 9773 3399 9769 3399 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 218DEG 55KT 3386 9813 3352 9791 3304 9795

Hernandez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
703 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

TXZ102-103-117-118-130>133-141-143-144-270200-
Hood TX-Bosque TX-Comanche TX-Parker TX-Erath TX-Denton TX-
Tarrant TX-Hamilton TX-Johnson TX-Somervell TX-Wise TX-
703 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOMERVELL...HAMILTON...EASTERN
ERATH...JOHNSON...SOUTHERN WISE...DENTON...BOSQUE...PARKER...
TARRANT...HOOD AND SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...

At 702 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Springtown to near Hamilton. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, Grand Prairie, Carrollton, Frisco,
Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Mansfield, Euless, Bedford,
Grapevine, Haltom City, Keller, Coppell, Hurst, Burleson, The Colony
and Cleburne.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for central and
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3175 9833 3301 9792 3343 9736 3341 9684
      3299 9684 3299 9703 3226 9709 3218 9747
      3213 9750 3202 9749 3198 9738 3193 9744
      3184 9728 3178 9733 3175 9728 3159 9760
      3171 9769 3142 9827 3169 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 258DEG 33KT 3299 9774 3171 9816

Hernandez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
723 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

TXZ092-270215-
Cooke TX-
723 PM CST WED DEC 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COOKE COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CST...

At 723 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Leon to 11 miles southeast of
Forestburg. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Muenster, Lindsay, Callisburg, Lake Kiowa and Valley
View.

LAT...LON 3395 9695 3394 9695 3342 9694 3344 9748
      3391 9748 3383 9746 3382 9738 3388 9733
      3386 9733 3389 9731 3386 9726 3392 9721
      3386 9717 3376 9719 3372 9711 3382 9705
      3385 9709 3384 9703 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 244DEG 43KT 3383 9758 3338 9747

Hernandez