Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

537 
WWUS53 KFSD 232100
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
400 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

SDC061-067-232115-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180523T2115Z/
Hanson SD-Hutchinson SD-
400 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANSON AND NORTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

At 400 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Milltown, or 9
miles east of Parkston, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Clayton around 410 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4334 9769 4335 9801 4369 9777 4361 9761
      4350 9761 4350 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 214DEG 26KT 4342 9781 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BT

574 
WWUS53 KFSD 232110
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
410 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

SDC061-067-232120-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180523T2115Z/
Hanson SD-Hutchinson SD-
410 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANSON AND
NORTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4334 9769 4335 9801 4369 9777 4361 9761
      4350 9761 4350 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 214DEG 26KT 4347 9776 

$$

BT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
300 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

In the near term, broken line of thunderstorms funneling north
through the James River Valley.  Could see an isolated storm or two,
but with CAPE near 1500 J/KG and weak shear, generally expect these
storms to remain below severe limits.  Expect these storms to decay
in the early evening hours as heating dies away.

Challenging forecast heading into tonight with waves of convection
expected to propagate into the forecast area.  Storms across western
South Dakota into western Nebraska this evening are expected to move
into central South Dakota towards 06z.  If they hold together, they
are moving into a more favorable environment as low level jet is
most concentrated across central and eastern South Dakota.  CAMs
suggest as these clusters of storms approach Central South Dakota,
the may try to organize and expand into a complex.  Not a lot in the
way of additional forcing mechanisms, as low level jet is nearly
parallel to the low level boundary across Central South Dakota. One
concern is 0-3 km shear is fairly weak, so elevated storms may
produce outflow that races out ahead of the complex stabilizing the
near surface layer. Therefore, have the highest pops concentrated in
the west, with lower pops trailing into the I-29 corridor and areas
east after 12Z Thursday. Forecast soundings suggest a nearly
uncapped environment from near 850-800 mb, so there is the potential
of storms if we can get a trigger. It is unknown how the outflow
boundaries will interact with the low level jet and convective
clusters around the area.

If we can destabilize throughout the day on Thursday, interesting
set up with stationary front/ dry line type feature remaining across
central South Dakota as shortwave approaches from the southwest late
in the day. Models suggest CAPEs could exceed 3000 J/kg with very
limited shear.  0-6 km bulk shear is near 15-20 knots, so think
storms will struggle to organize. Biggest concern for afternoon
convective potential and high temperatures will be the lingering
cloud debris from morning convection.  With weak winds through the
layer, cloud could hang around longer than expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Friday through the holiday weekend looks warm and dry as an upper
level ridge develops across the plains.  Have kept forecast dry, and
with 850 hpa temps pushing 20C, expect highs in the upper 80s and
90s through much of the weekend.  At this point, Saturday appears to
be the warmest day with widespread 90s.Dew points in the lower 60s
will push heat index values towards advisory criteria, but appears
to be a few degrees on the cool side at this point.

Upper level trough works into the west coast and inches toward the
forecast area early next week. Spokes of energy break off the low
and lift northeast bringing sporadic chances of precipitation Monday
through Wednesday to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR is expected to be the dominant category at the TAF sites
through the 18Z TAF set. That said there are some challenges. In
the near term this afternoon, small, popcorn type showers and
isolated storms will develop, especially affecting the KHON and
possibly KFSD TAF sites. This will be closely monitored for
amendments when or if these small showers occur. Tonight, VCTS is
warranted at the KHON and KFSD TAF sites as activity develops
over the western plains and possibly nudges eastward later tonight
for the KHON and KFSD TAF sites. Not enough confidence to include
any TSRA potential in a tempo group so opted to go the VCTS route
as a heads up. Finally, as the low level jet increases tonight,
there will be a threat for low level wind shear.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
359 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

IAZ003-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-240900-
Dickinson-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-
359 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa
and southwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will linger into the mid to late morning
hours before diminishing. Locally heavy rainfall, with isolated
flash flooding or ponding of water will be the primary threat,
with small hail also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional storms will be possible by Thursday evening. A few of
these storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely today and tonight.

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-240900-
Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-
359 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota,
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this morning.
Severe weather is not anticipated, though locally heavy downpours
will be possible. Additional storms may develop west of the James
River this evening, spreading east overnight. Isolated severe
storms with hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to 60
mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional storms will be possible by late Thursday afternoon,
continuing into Thursday night. A few of these storms may be
severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely today and tonight.

IAZ001-002-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ098-NEZ013-014-SDZ039-040-
054>056-061-062-066-067-069>071-240900-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Kingsbury-Brookings-
Miner-Lake-Moody-McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln SD-Yankton-
Clay SD-Union-
359 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east
central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible toward the
Highway 14 corridor this morning. Severe weather is not
anticipated, though locally heavy downpours will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional storms will be possible by Thursday evening. A few of
these storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is unlikely today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
202 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             3 S PARKSTON            43.35N 97.99W
05/23/2018  E1.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AK