Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

666 
WWUS53 KFSD 180402
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1102 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

SDC015-023-053-180415-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180518T0415Z/
Charles Mix SD-Gregory SD-Brule SD-
1102 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHARLES MIX...GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES...

At 1101 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lower Brule to near Clearfield, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Chamberlain, Kimball, Gregory, Burke, Bonesteel, Dallas, Herrick, St.
Charles, Grass Ranch Colony, Lake Francis Case, Pukwana and Dixon In
Gregory County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9953 4350 9929 4352 9928 4357 9934
      4364 9936 4367 9947 4370 9941 4377 9941
      4380 9936 4386 9931 4390 9936 4393 9935
      4393 9893 4354 9886 4300 9891 4300 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 275DEG 39KT 4404 9959 4313 9997 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kalin

677 
WWUS53 KFSD 180416
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1116 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

SDC015-023-053-180425-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180518T0415Z/
Charles Mix SD-Gregory SD-Brule SD-
1116 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHARLES MIX...
GREGORY AND BRULE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened just below 
severe limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or 
property. Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire. However 
gusty winds up to 50 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 4350 9953 4350 9929 4352 9928 4357 9934
      4364 9936 4367 9947 4370 9941 4377 9941
      4380 9936 4386 9931 4390 9936 4393 9935
      4393 9893 4354 9886 4300 9891 4300 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 275DEG 39KT 4403 9939 4312 9977 

$$

Kalin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
658 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continued into the early
afternoon west of the James River. This appeared to be consistent
with the eastern edge of the EML and some very weak
forcing/instability based around 7-8kft. This bit of mid level
moisture and instability look to continue through late afternoon
before drying out. Some hint that the the low and mid level winds
will back late this afternoon and evening as a mid and upper level
wave lifts northeast into western ND. This will likely keep the
brunt of new development tonight to the west of the Missouri River.
After about 6z some of the showers and thunderstorms may propagate
into central SD and get close to Interstate 29 as the low and mid
level winds turn a bit more south to southwest. With stronger winds
and more cloud cover lows will be mild in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

There may be a bit of a lull late morning into early afternoon
before the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Will keep the chance for rain
and thunderstorms generally west of Interstate 29. The chance for
any severe weather continues to be low as the mid and upper level
lapse rates are not nearly as steep as today. But with weak winds
slow storm motion will be possible with localized heavy rainfall
possible. Highs will still be warm, but not quite as warm as the
past couple of days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

The axis of moisture and instability shifts east and all but parts
of northwest IA should see a decent chance for rainfall and a few
thunderstorms Friday night. The main threat from these thunderstorms
should be lightning and heavier rainfall but at this time not
anticipating any widespread heavy rain concerns. Plus the better
chance for heavier rainfall will likely come west of the James River
where there is a little less impact from heavy rainfall. Closer to
Interstate 29 the chances will start to drop off but do expect at
least some scattered activity by afternoon as the low level
thermal/moisture ridge moves over Interstate 29. With the increase
in clouds and a cool front coming in from the north temperatures
will be cooler. Highs in the 70s in northwest IA and 55 to
65 elsewhere.

Saturday night into Sunday will include some higher chances for rain
and thunderstorms but again the chance for severe is pretty low.
There is also some room for error with a wobbling upper level low to
the south expected to lift north. If this low does not wobble north
the chances will decrease a bit. Right now banking on some rainfall
and a lot of clouds so highs in the 60s for everyone. If a little
more cool air and rain than expected there is a decent chance for
highs in the 50s.

Monday through Thursday will see temperatures more in line with the
seasonal normal, back into the 70s. While early week will see some
ridging aloft bringing an increased chance for dry conditions, the
models are hinting at some troughing mid week and will need to have
a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Breezy south winds continue through sunset, lighten overnight,
and then redevelop during the day Friday. Thunderstorms will
slowly approach from the west and north overnight, reaching KHON,
Chamberlain, and other areas west of Mitchell during the early
morning hours Friday. Lightning and gusty winds are possible with
storms. The line of storms will weaken during the morning hours,
likely dissipating before reaching I-29 and KFSD & KSUX. During
Friday afternoon and evening, additional scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...VandenBoogart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
938 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067-069>071-190245-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-
Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Brookings-Lake-Moody-
McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln SD-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
938 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east
central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Diminishing thunderstorms may reach the outlook area Friday
morning.

Thunderstorm chances will increase again Friday afternoon and
Friday night as a front approaches the area.  While the overall
risk of severe storms is low, there will be a risk for locally
heavy rainfall due to the slow moving nature of the expected
storms.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday. While the risk of
severe storms is low, locally heavy rainfall could be possible
leading to increased risks of renewed river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063>065-068-190245-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-
938 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota,
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A weakening line of thunderstorms will move through around
midnight through the early morning hours Friday. Strong wind
gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible as storms pass, with perhaps a
few damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. A few locations could also see
heavy rain, as storms are slow moving.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Redevelopment of thunderstorms will again be possible Friday
afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible and
will bring the risk of damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and
locally heavy rainfall into Friday evening. Thunderstorms will
likely continue into Saturday morning as a front arrives, with a
lingering risk of excessive rainfall.

The risk of thunderstorms continues Saturday and Saturday night
before decreasing on Sunday. While severe weather chances will be
low, there will be an increased risk for excessive rainfall which
could lead to minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.