Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

058 
WWUS53 KFSD 252116
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
416 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

MNC033-252130-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-180725T2130Z/
Cottonwood MN-
416 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COTTONWOOD COUNTY...

At 416 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Springfield, or
19 miles north of Windom, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Cottonwood County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sioux Falls.

&&

LAT...LON 4403 9506 4420 9519 4419 9511 4411 9510
      4411 9501 4410 9488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 317DEG 40KT 4415 9505 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ferguson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The nose of higher lapse rates aloft was moving through this
afternoon with the mid level showers moving east along this nose.
Cooler air aloft will settle in fairly quickly behind this feature
and surface winds will turn to the north and northwest advecting
cooler and drier air southward. Convergence along this boundary is
pretty poor with west southwest winds ahead of the cool front. There
still might be a brief window when a few thunderstorms develop from
about 3 pm to 6 pm. With decent shear and marginal instability there
will continue to be a severe threat but it does appear to be on the
isolated side. The main threat will be across northwest IA and far
southern MN.

As the front passes the thunderstorm chances will quickly shift
south and clouds will begin to clear. Much of the cloud cover in the
area is driven by the higher lapse rates aloft and also diurnally
driven cumulus, both of which should be gone by about 3z. Northwest
winds will remain about 5 to 10 mph through the night with lows
falling to about 53 to 58 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

After a cool start to the day northwest winds will increase and
likely gust to around 25 mph Thursday afternoon. Model soundings do
indicate some moisture at the inversion so expect a cumulus field to
develop late in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy over far eastern
SD, southwest MN and northwest IA. With the cooler air and cloud
cover temperatures will top out in the 70s and likely feel a bit on
the cool side with the slightly stronger winds.

High pressure will build south on Thursday night and bring lighter
winds, clear skies and cooler morning lows. Temperatures on Friday
morning will likely be in the 50 to 55 degree range.

Friday should be a very pleasant day with light winds, lower
humidity and highs in the 70s. Clouds will be on the increase
through the day as a wave moves through Wyoming onto the Western
High Plains. This will bring an increase in mid and high clouds with
a small chance for showers and thunderstorms into south central SD
Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday the wave will move into the Central
Plains with broad mid level warm air advection bringing rain and
thunderstorms to areas south of Interstate 90. Instability is pretty
weak so not expecting severe weather. And, if everything comes out
as expected there may not be a whole lot of thunder either.

Once this system passes a large scale trough will settle onto the
Plains, bringing cooler conditions and dry weather. By early next
week the system will shift a bit east and a gradually warm up to
around normal is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Few showers have developed along a cold front moving to the
southeast this afternoon. After 20Z, could see some thunderstorms
develop creating large hail and a strong wind gust or two across
northwest Iowa. These storms will shift southeast this evening,
leading to clearing skies and northwest winds. Could see cumulus
develop during the day tomorrow.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
410 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ089-090-NEZ013-014-SDZ067-
070-071-260915-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Nobles-Jackson-Dixon-Dakota-Lincoln SD-
Clay SD-Union-
410 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today where some of the
stronger storms could become severe later today. Thunderstorm
activity in the afternoon will depend on cloud cover. If
conditions remain cloudy through the first half of the day, severe
storms will be very limited. If sky conditions can break out and
allow the atmosphere to destabilize, then golf ball size hail and
wind gusts around 70 mph are possible. The severe weather threat
is more favored from 3 pm to 9 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night into
Saturday. At this moment, severe weather threat is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

MNZ071-072-080-081-097-098-SDZ056-061-062-065-066-068-069-260915-
Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Pipestone-Rock-Moody-McCook-
Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
410 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Minnesota, east central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe in the afternoon hours.
The primary threats are large hail to half dollar and damaging
winds to 70 mph. The severe weather threat is more favored from 3
pm to 9 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night into
Saturday. At this moment, severe weather threat is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

SDZ038>040-050-052>055-057>060-063-064-260915-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-
410 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota,
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms chances will continue during the day as a cold
front moves through. A few storms may be marginally severe with
quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night into
Saturday. At this moment, severe weather threat is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.