Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

201 
WWUS53 KFSD 181823
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
123 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

SDC015-181845-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-180718T1845Z/
Brule SD-
123 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRULE COUNTY...

At 122 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Grass Ranch
Colony, or 8 miles south of Kimball, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Grass Ranch Colony around 135 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 9879 4371 9879 4350 9884 4350 9894
      4357 9927 4373 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 280DEG 26KT 4362 9901 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JM

623 
WWUS53 KFSD 181843
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
143 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

SDC015-181853-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-180718T1845Z/
Brule SD-
143 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRULE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 145 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4372 9879 4371 9879 4350 9884 4350 9894
      4357 9927 4373 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 280DEG 26KT 4359 9881 

$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Main highlight of the entire forecast package is the widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected by this evening. Wave digging
into the high northern Plains seen on satellite water vapor imagery
will continue translating eastward through the short term period,
providing plenty of forcing for lift across the CWA by this
afternoon. Still thinking the well advertised moderate rain forecast
is on track, with most places receiving 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with
locally higher amounts. PWAT values, while high, are not off the
charts, but storm motion looks to be slow with Corfidi vectors and 0-
6 km mean flow both being less than 25 kts and generally getting
slower as the upper wave pivots as it reaches the eastern Dakotas.

Other concern in the short term is the potential for severe weather.
There appears to be a small window in which storm redevelopment may
occur in central SD before heading east-southeast into our
southwestern CWA - mainly southwest of a 9V9-YKN line. Given the
backed winds at the surface and the additional deep shear courtesy
of the upper jet nosing into the region, could have a few hours with
a threat for organized convection, and can't totally rule out an
isolated tornado. As continued ascent leads to more widespread
showers and storms by the evening, expect storms to agglomerate and
the severe threat to diminish as the previously discussed heavy rain
threat begins to ramp up.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Long term period begins with the lingering effects of the upper
wave on Thursday. Expect SW MN to be the cool spot as showers
linger in the morning and skies slowly clear through the day.
Meanwhile, south central SD will be sunny and could reach 90.
Superblend actually did a decent job of illustrating this contrast
in temperatures, so only had to tweak it a bit to get something
realistic.

The remainder of the extended features mostly benign weather. The
upper low continues to build eastward into the Great Lakes for
Friday, with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in our
eastern CWA as a disturbance rounds the backside of this feature.
Otherwise, a return to the nice weather appears to be in store for
Saturday as ridging aloft builds in. A small disturbance rides the
ridge on Sunday, so left in chance PoPs during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous west of
Interstate 29 through the afternoon. The thunderstorm threat will
then spread east towards Interstate 29, southwest MN and northwest
IA during the evening and overnight hours. MVFR ceilings will
become likely late tonight as the rainfall exits.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ferguson
LONG TERM...Ferguson
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

NEZ013-014-SDZ050-057>060-063>065-068>070-190845-
Dixon-Dakota-Gregory-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Nebraska, south central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph being the main threats.
Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Furthermore,
heavy rain may become an issue this afternoon through tonight due
to expected slow movement of showers and thunderstorms. Expect
half an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall with locally higher
amounts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thursday through Tuesday look to be mostly uneventful, with Friday
and Sunday having a slight chance for thunderstorms. At this time,
any thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 1 pm and 7 pm this
afternoon.

IAZ001-012-020-031-SDZ038-039-052>055-061-062-066-067-071-190845-
Lyon IA-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Beadle-Kingsbury-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln SD-Union-
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, central South Dakota, east central South
Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph being the main threats.
Furthermore, heavy rain may become an issue this afternoon
through overnight tonight due to expected slow movement of
showers and thunderstorms. Expect half an inch to an inch and a
half of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thursday through Tuesday look to be mostly uneventful, with Friday
and Sunday having a slight chance for thunderstorms. At this time,
any thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 1 pm and 7 pm this
afternoon.

IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
SDZ040-056-190845-
Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay IA-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Ida-
Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-
Rock-Brookings-Moody-
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and east central South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rain may become an issue this afternoon through overnight tonight
due to expected slow movement of showers and thunderstorms.
Expect half an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall with locally
higher amounts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thursday through Tuesday look to be mostly uneventful, with Friday
and Sunday having a slight chance for thunderstorms. At this time,
any thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.