Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

031 
WGUS63 KFSD 191850
FFAFSD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
150 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.Thunderstorms will continue to develop Wednesday evening and 
continue through Thursday morning. This thunderstorm activity will
have the potential to produce high rainfall rates, and rapid 
accumulation of rainfall in a short period of time. Total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible by Thursday 
morning with localized rainfall amounts above 3 inches possible. 
This rainfall on top of saturated grounds will lead to a 
heightened risk of flash flooding as well as river flooding.

IAZ001>003-012>014-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-
052>062-064>067-201015-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FF.A.0006.180920T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Lincoln MN-
Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Kingsbury-
Brookings-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-
150 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and South 
  Dakota, including the following areas, in northwest Iowa, Clay 
  IA, Dickinson, Lyon IA, O'Brien, Osceola, and Sioux. In 
  southwest Minnesota, Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln MN, Lyon MN, 
  Murray, Nobles, Pipestone, and Rock. In South Dakota, Aurora, 
  Brookings, Brule, Davison, Douglas, Hanson, Hutchinson, 
  Jerauld, Kingsbury, Lake, Lincoln SD, McCook, Miner, 
  Minnehaha, Moody, Sanborn, and Turner. 

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday afternoon

* Thunderstorms will continue to develop Wednesday evening and
  continue into Thursday morning. This thunderstorm activity will
  have the potential to produce extreme rainfall rates. Widespread
  rainfall accumulations between 1 and 3 inches will be possible.
  Localized rainfall accumulations greater than 3 to even 5 
  inches will also be possible. 

* Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with water covered 
  roads and urban flooding possible. Flooding an area streams 
  and rivers will also be possible into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

061 
WGUS63 KFSD 200040
FFAFSD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
740 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.Thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening and persist
through Thursday morning. This thunderstorm activity will have the
potential to produce high rainfall rates, and rapid accumulation 
of rainfall in a short period of time. Total rainfall of 1 to 3 
inches will be possible by Thursday morning, with localized 
rainfall amounts above 3 inches possible. This rainfall on top of 
saturated grounds, or in urban areas, will lead to a heightened 
risk of flash flooding as well as river flooding.

IAZ020-021-031-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-200845-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Plymouth-Cherokee-Woodbury-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
740 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Iowa, northeast 
  Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota, including the following 
  areas, in Iowa, Cherokee, Plymouth, and Woodbury. In northeast 
  Nebraska, Dakota and Dixon. In southeast South Dakota, Union. 

* Through Thursday afternoon

* Thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening, with
  scattered activity lingering into Thursday morning. This
  thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce extreme
  rainfall rates. Rainfall accumulations between 1 and 3 inches
  will be possible, with localized rainfall accumulations greater
  than 3 to even 5 inches possible. 

* Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with water covered 
  roads and urban flooding possible. Flooding an area streams 
  and rivers will also be possible into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-
052>062-064>067-200845-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Lincoln MN-
Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Kingsbury-
Brookings-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-
740 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and South 
  Dakota, including the following areas, in northwest Iowa, Clay 
  IA, Dickinson, Lyon IA, O'Brien, Osceola, and Sioux. In 
  southwest Minnesota, Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln MN, Lyon MN, 
  Murray, Nobles, Pipestone, and Rock. In South Dakota, Aurora, 
  Brookings, Brule, Davison, Douglas, Hanson, Hutchinson, 
  Jerauld, Kingsbury, Lake, Lincoln SD, McCook, Miner, 
  Minnehaha, Moody, Sanborn, and Turner. 

* Through Thursday afternoon

* Thunderstorms will continue to develop Wednesday evening and 
  continue into Thursday morning. This thunderstorm activity 
  will have the potential to produce extreme rainfall rates. 
  Widespread rainfall accumulations between 1 and 3 inches will 
  be possible. Localized rainfall accumulations greater than 3 
  to even 5 inches will also be possible. 

* Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with water covered 
  roads and urban flooding possible. Flooding an area streams 
  and rivers will also be possible into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

009 
WGUS63 KFSD 200238
FFAFSD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
938 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.Thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage overnight into
Thursday morning. This thunderstorm activity will have the 
potential to produce high rainfall rates, and rapid accumulation 
of rainfall in a short period of time. Total rainfall of 1 to 3 
inches will be possible by Thursday morning, with localized 
rainfall amounts above 3 inches possible. This rainfall on top of 
saturated grounds, or in urban areas, will lead to a heightened 
risk of flash flooding as well as river flooding.

SDZ039-052-053-057-058-200345-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kingsbury-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-
938 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, and south central South Dakota has been
cancelled. The threat of heavy rainfall has shifted southeast, 
and thus the risk of flash flooding in areas from Chamberlain to 
De Smet has decreased.

$$

IAZ022-201045-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buena Vista-
938 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of northwest Iowa, 
  including the following area, Buena Vista. 

* Through Thursday afternoon

* Occasional thunderstorms will continue into Thursday morning.
  This thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce
  extreme rainfall rates. Widespread rainfall accumulations
  between 1 and 3 inches will be possible, with localized higher
  amounts possible.

* Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with water covered 
  roads and urban flooding possible. Flooding an area streams 
  and rivers will also be possible into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020-021-031-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ040-054>056-059>062-064>067-071-201045-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Woodbury-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-
Union-
938 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, and 
  South Dakota, including the following areas, in Iowa, 
  Cherokee, Clay IA, Dickinson, Lyon IA, O'Brien, Osceola, 
  Plymouth, Sioux, and Woodbury. In southwest Minnesota, 
  Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln MN, Lyon MN, Murray, Nobles, 
  Pipestone, and Rock. In northeast Nebraska, Dakota and Dixon. 
  In South Dakota, Brookings, Davison, Douglas, Hanson, 
  Hutchinson, Lake, Lincoln SD, McCook, Miner, Minnehaha, Moody, 
  Turner, and Union. 

* Through Thursday afternoon

* Thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage overnight 
  into Thursday morning. This thunderstorm activity will have the 
  potential to produce extreme rainfall rates. Widespread rainfall
  accumulations between 1 and 3 inches will be possible. 
  Localized rainfall accumulations greater than 3 to even 5 inches
  will also be possible. 

* Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with water covered 
  roads and urban flooding possible. Flooding an area streams 
  and rivers will also be possible into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

023 
WGUS63 KFSD 200554
FFAFSD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.Thunderstorms will continue tonight into Thursday morning. This 
thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce high 
rainfall rates, and rapid accumulation of rainfall in a short 
period of time. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will 
be possible through Thursday morning, with localized rainfall 
amounts above 3 inches possible. This rainfall on top of saturated
grounds, or in urban areas, will lead to a heightened risk of 
flash flooding as well as river flooding.

IAZ031-NEZ013-014-200700-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Woodbury-Dixon-Dakota-
1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of west central Iowa and
northeast Nebraska has been cancelled. The strongest activity has
shifted northward and is expected to not really fill in across
this area. 

$$

SDZ063-068>070-201400-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Charles Mix-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-
1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of south central South 
  Dakota and southeast South Dakota, including the following 
  areas, in south central South Dakota, Charles Mix. In 
  southeast South Dakota, Bon Homme, Clay SD, and Yankton. 

* Through this afternoon

* Occasional thunderstorms will continue into Thursday morning.
  This thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce
  high hourly rainfall rates. Additional widespread rainfall 
  accumulations between 1 and 3 inches will be possible, with 
  localized higher amounts possible. 

* Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with water covered 
  roads and urban flooding possible. Flooding an area streams 
  and rivers will also be possible into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
SDZ040-054>056-059>062-064>067-071-201400-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-Union-
1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and South 
  Dakota, including the following areas, in northwest Iowa, 
  Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay IA, Dickinson, Lyon IA, O'Brien, 
  Osceola, Plymouth, and Sioux. In southwest Minnesota, 
  Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln MN, Lyon MN, Murray, Nobles, 
  Pipestone, and Rock. In South Dakota, Brookings, Davison, 
  Douglas, Hanson, Hutchinson, Lake, Lincoln SD, McCook, Miner, 
  Minnehaha, Moody, Turner, and Union. 

* Through this afternoon

* Thunderstorms will continue into Thursday morning. This
  thunderstorm activity will have the potential to produce high
  hourly rainfall rates. Additional rainfall accumulations between
  1 and 3 inches will be possible. Localized rainfall
  accumulations greater than 3 inches will also be possible.
  

* Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with water covered 
  roads and urban flooding possible. Flooding an area streams 
  and rivers will also be possible into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

525 
WGUS63 KFSD 201131
FFAFSD

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.Rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue this morning. The
general trend though the morning hours is for the rainfall rates
to diminish. However there will still certainly be localized
pockets of heavy rainfall, most likely in southeast South Dakota,
the southern sections of southwest Minnesota, and extreme
northwest Iowa which could produce heavy rain in a brief amount 
of time. This is due to convective cells which will occasionally 
occur. This rainfall on top of saturated grounds, or in urban 
areas, will lead to a heightened risk of flash flooding as well as
river flooding.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
SDZ040-054>056-059>071-201800-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-180920T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-
Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and South 
  Dakota, including the following areas, in northwest Iowa, 
  Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay IA, Dickinson, Lyon IA, O'Brien, 
  Osceola, Plymouth, and Sioux. In southwest Minnesota, 
  Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln MN, Lyon MN, Murray, Nobles, 
  Pipestone, and Rock. In South Dakota, Bon Homme, Brookings, 
  Charles Mix, Clay SD, Davison, Douglas, Hanson, Hutchinson, 
  Lake, Lincoln SD, McCook, Miner, Minnehaha, Moody, Turner, 
  Union, and Yankton. 

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this morning. The
  general rainfall will be trending downward. However there will
  still be isolated to scattered pockets of heavy rain under the
  heavier cells which will produce thunderstorms. Therefore
  isolated areas could receive a quick one inch of rain in a brief
  amount of time, on top of already saturated ground. 

* Reports of county and township roads, and even some state
  highways underwater are coming in for locations south of 
  Interstate 90. Heavy rains can lead to flash flooding, with 
  water covered roads and urban flooding possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
657 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Vigorous short wave is moving across the southern sections of this
forecast area at this time, primarily along and south of Interstate
90, aided by strong frontogenesis in the 850-800mb layer extending
generally from the southern sections of southwest MN, through
extreme northwest IA, and into southeast SD through 12Z. At this
time, the TSRA complex is pretty progressive and turning
multicellular. Soundings show stability through the lowest 1.5km
with instability noted above 800mb with fairly steep mid level lapse
rates. The directional wind shear is actually tremendous early this
morning with strong veering - but - this shear is for the most part
unusable as it is in the inversion layer. Wind speeds at 6km are 40
to 45 knots which could explain the progressive nature of the
convection. The TSRA should migrate from west to east early this
morning along the short wave and low level frontogenesis, again
impacting area mainly along and south of the I 90 corridor, with
less activity in our northern zones and in our far south around
Sioux City. Therefore not expecting copious amounts of rain at this
time early today for most locations. But hourly rates under the
strongest cells have been 1 to 2 inches. Therefore if one gets a bit
of training for more than an hour, there could certainly be
localized amounts of over two inches early this morning.

So what happens the remainder of the day is quite a challenge. Once
this current wave leaves, the 850mb frontogenesis shifts east to
northeast with it, and there is an absence of QG forcing. Therefore
it may be similar to yesterday in that parts of the forecast area
will dry out late this morning and afternoon. With some mid level
frontogenesis, a stripe of likely pops is warranted across our
western and northern zones later this morning and afternoon moving
from southwest to northeast, roughly from Chamberlain SD to Marshall
MN. But otherwise pops greatly decrease heading to the southeast
from those locations. For temperatures, near the warm front Sioux
City still looks quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. Storm Lake
may not bee far behind. Conversely our northern and western zones
with deeper moisture may not move much off their current readings.
Therefore highs in the mid to upper 60s is warranted for those
locations.

Tonight and Thursday, QG forcing becomes hard to follow, both in the
upper and mid layers. Therefore timing individual waves is difficult
at best. So simplifying things, height falls are noted with the warm
front staying put close to Sioux City to Storm Lake. The rest of the
forecast area will experience a northeast surface flow. Mid level
frontogenesis becomes increasingly strong as tonight progresses, and
certainly into Thursday across our northern and western zones. For
tonight, continued to place the highest pops along the 850mb forcing
similar to where the convection is going now and also last night.
This puts the highest pops from southwest MN to southeast SD this
evening, extending westward into east central SD late tonight as the
mid level frontogenesis builds. The heaviest rainfall should in the
southern zones of southwest MN and in southeast SD right on the
850mb deformation, extending back into south central SD. Rainfall
rates late tonight may decrease but will monitor these locations for
a potential flash flood watch if the 12Z model runs come in similar
to what they are showing now. Then on Thursday, there is good model
consensus in bringing surface low pressure northeastward through the
forecast area with the main upper trough finally moving into the
western high plains. Mid level frontogenesis remains strong in our
north and west, with low level frontogenesis more dominant in our
east. High pops are still warranted on Thursday as the surface wave
moves through. The air mass will become stable in our west. However
in our far eastern zones ahead of the front, severe weather is a
threat in the afternoon with 0-1km close to 2000 J/kg along and east
of a Sioux City to Jackson MN line and 0-6km winds of 45 to 50
knots. At this time, non convectively contaminated 0-3km bulk shear
vectors are 40 to 50 knots in those same locations.

Highs on Thursday will vary greatly from the lower 80s in Sioux City
and Storm Lake, to mid 60s in east central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Further out, behind the cold front manually increased the wind
speeds above superblend into the breezy to windy categories later
Thursday night and Friday morning as subsidence is pretty strong.
Rain chances will linger Thursday evening in our eastern zones, and
perhaps along highway 14 in our north with a few showers in that
location. But stability will rapidly usher eastward through the
forecast area leaving the severe weather threat behind likely after
early evening. Highs on Friday will be cool across the area with
upper 50s and lower 60s and much drier air.

The weekend will be dry, followed by another upper trough moving
eastward and affecting our weather early next week. Although the
details are sketchy with model variances, there is enough consensus
to warrant pops, especially on Monday, with another cold front
passage late Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Thunderstorms remain in the forecast this morning and afternoon,
especially for areas along and north of I-90. Surface winds will
generally be out of the east 10 to 20 kt, but variable and
gusting 30 to 40 kt in the vicinity of storms. Low clouds are
likely to continue for much of the next 24 hours, with IFR
ceilings being widespread. After sunset thunderstorm coverage will
increase with a heavy rain threat as a large weather system moves
through tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...VandenBoogart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
513 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

IAZ001-002-012-020-031-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-201015-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-
Cottonwood-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-
Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Turner-Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
513 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

After morning thunderstorms depart, a few storms may become
marginally severe this afternoon and evening. The main threat with
the stronger storms will be small hail and gusty winds, however a
few storms may have hail up to the size of quarters.

A larger threat of heavy rainfall will occur tonight with
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. The main axis for
heavy rain is currently expected in southwest Minnesota, extending
into southeast South Dakota and into south central South Dakota.
These locations could receive 2 to 4 inches of rainfall tonight.
The situation however is not clear cut, so stay alert for
adjustments to the rainfall forecast both in amounts and in
location. However the timing is pretty certain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue on Thursday, but
the heavy rain threat will be rapidly waning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.
Rainfall reports are welcome.

IAZ003-013-014-021-022-032-MNZ090-201015-
Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay IA-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Ida-Jackson-
513 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, and southwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will depart this morning. Then scattered
storms may redevelop late this afternoon and evening with a few
storms possibly marginally severe. The main threat with the
stronger storms will be small hail and gusty winds, however a few
storms may have hail up to the size of quarters along with 50 to
60 mph winds.

A continued threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the overnight and late night hours. Locally heavy rain may
occur, especially close to the Minnesota border, where 2 to 3 inch
amounts could occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday. There is a
risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon and perhaps very early
evening from Jackson Minnesota, to the eastern sections of
Woodbury county Iowa, and points eastward. Hail to the size of
half dollars and 60 mph winds could occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
703 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SIOUX CENTER            43.08N 96.17W
09/19/2018  M2.08 INCH       SIOUX              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

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