Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

133 
WGUS73 KFSD 070920
FFSFSD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
420 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

SDC023-053-071100-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180607T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Charles Mix SD-Gregory SD-
420 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
CHARLES MIX AND SOUTHEASTERN GREGORY COUNTIES...

At 412 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Doppler radar indicates 2 to 4 inches 
of rain has fallen so far in an area extending from central Charles 
Mix county including Geddes, southeastward to Wagner and locations 
north and east of Wagner. Other pockets of heavy rain exist near the 
Missouri River along the Gregory and Charles Mix county border. 

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Lake Andes, Pickstown, Wagner, Marty, Geddes, Dante and Ravinia. 

Moderate to pockets of heavy rain continue, and additional rainfall 
amounts of an inch or just over an inch are quite possible in the 
warned area. Locations most prone to flooding include low lying 
areas, poor drainage areas, and low areas in towns where runoff can 
be enhanced.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

In hilly terrain near the Missouri River, low areas on roadways are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads as you do not know the stability of underlying road bed. Find 
an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 9847 4300 9850 4300 9861 4334 9915
      4335 9860 4318 9811 4287 9812 4285 9815

$$

MJF

592 
WGUS73 KFSD 071057
FFSFSD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
557 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

SDC023-053-071104-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180607T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Charles Mix SD-Gregory SD-
557 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CHARLES MIX AND SOUTHEASTERN GREGORY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 AM CDT...

Heavy rain has ended. Ponded water and water in low lying or poor 
drainage areas which flooded are receding. Be alert for any residual 
flooding in poor drainage areas as you travel early this morning. 

LAT...LON 4295 9847 4300 9850 4300 9861 4334 9915
      4335 9860 4318 9811 4287 9812 4285 9815

$$

MJF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1130 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Main issue in the short term will once again be showers and storms.
Thunderstorms this afternoon should remain to our south as the
surface boundary sags southward this afternoon. Nevertheless, if a
storm is able to form in our southern zones they could get to severe
levels given the steep mid level lapse rates. Complication for
tonight is an increasing signal in guidance that the 700mb boundary
will retrograde northward and, in conjunction with another shortwave
approaching from the west, kick off a region of showers and
thunderstorms across the I-90 corridor. While a couple of these
storms could have some severe hail given continued steep mid level
lapse rates, main threat if this scenario plays out would be locally
heavy rainfall. With the insistence of several short term guidance
tools that this may happen, have put in some higher PoPs tonight
across the I-90 corridor.

Another wave impacts the region tomorrow with an attendant chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances in the morning and early
afternoon will be across northwest Iowa. Later into the night, focus
will shift to our western zones. Both locations have marginally
steep mid level lapse rates and some marginal shear, so can't rule
out a severe storm or two. The atmosphere will have been worked over
quite a bit over the past two days by then, so that will temper
chances for severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

The chances for showers and storms continue in the extended.
Guidance continues to be insistent on a shortwave translate
eastward across SD Friday. Potential instability ahead of this
wave looks to be substantial, but capping concerns remain with a
relatively warm layer in the 700mb-800mb range. While shear
profiles do not appear to be as favorable as they were in
yesterday's runs, shear would still be supportive of organized
convection. In summary, will need to continue watching Friday
closely.

The pattern of shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge will
continue through Monday when a longwave trough will approach from
the west. This trough will drive lee pressure falls to the west,
setting up a decent pressure gradient and breezy winds out of the
south Sunday into early Monday. Bumped up winds, highs for Sunday,
and lows during the overnight Sunday period accordingly.

The passage of the longwave trough will bring yet another chance for
rain. The good news is that the passage of this trough should serve
to cool things down a bit, with highs expecting to be around normal
to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through 06z Thu. Convection will
increase near and south of I-90 through the overnight hours, with
winds somewhat erratic around storms, and potential for a couple
of brief trips into MVFR visibilities with stronger storms. Have
taken many of the hours of mention for thunder out of TAFs at KFSD
and KSUX as uncertainty of timing random storms around slow moving
upper wave would require too many hours of mention.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ferguson
LONG TERM...Ferguson
AVIATION...Chapman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
319 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

MNZ071-072-097-SDZ038>040-054>056-072030-
Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Pipestone-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-
Lake-Moody-
319 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Minnesota and east central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hazardous weather is not expected today or tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic storms are possible Thursday through Friday night.
Isolated severe weather is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

IAZ001>003-012>014-MNZ080-081-089-090-098-SDZ050-052-053-057>070-
072030-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Murray-Cottonwood-
Nobles-Jackson-Rock-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-
319 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
southwest Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South
Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms tonight may lead to isolated quarter size hail and
localized heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional periodic storms are possible Thursday through Friday
night. Isolated severe weather is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

IAZ020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-072030-
Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
319 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, northeast Nebraska, and southeast South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening, with the main threats being hail up to the
size of ping pong balls and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional periodic storms are possible Thursday through Friday
night. Isolated severe weather is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.