Wind Advisory 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

215 
WWUS75 KFGZ 130105
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
605 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

AZZ012>014-016-017-130215-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180213T0100Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Including the cities of Wupatki N.M, .Tuba City, Winslow, 
Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, Springerville, Heber, Happy Jack,
Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, and Pinetop
605 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Southwest winds will continue to diminish, with most areas 
staying in the 15 to 25 mph range this evening, falling to 10 to 
20 mph after Midnight MST.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
755 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cool and wet start to the week on Monday as
rain and snow showers develop over the region. Drier conditions will
develop Tuesday and Wednesday, with a good chance of showers
returning for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Evening model runs are not showing any major
deviations from earlier runs and the details of the impending
weather change should now become more apparent.

It comes down to not if it will rain or snow, but when and where.
Additionally, there is a saturation problem to deal with, this will
make a big impact on the type of precipitation and the ability for
any snow to accumulate.

Models runs are showing poor saturation over the Mogollon Rim, with
deeper saturation over western Coconino county and across the Kaibab
Plateau. Temperature profiles indicate frozen precipitation starting
at about 6000 feet, but pellets are more likely than dendrites.

So, as hghts fall tonight, moisture transport will begin over the
southern California and Arizona deserts as the marine layer deepens.
This moisture will deepen enough by mid-morning Monday to allow for
the development of upslope showers from roughly the Payson rim and
points westward. Showers will then become more numerous during the
afternoon and evening, especially northwest of Flagstaff, where
dynamics and moisture profiles are much more favorable.

Then, during the day Tuesday, the low will retrograde off the coast.
This will bring an end to the precipitation, as warmer air aloft
stabilizes the atmosphere.

This will be the case into Wednesday, before the low taps into some
sub-tropical moisture and moves east Thursday and Friday. This will
be another wet period, with tricky snow level forecasts.

For tonight, we will raise POPs from about the central rim westward
and tweak one hourly temperatures and snow ratios. Hopefully, this
will lead to a better idea of where snowfall may become an issue and
lead to travel impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...MVFR/IFR conditions developing by
14Z-16Z, especially from KPAN-KFLG and points westward. Mainly VFR
conditons lee of terrain features, including much of the LCR. Sfc
winds sw15-25g30kts, mainly in the daylight hours. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A trough of low pressure over northern California
this afternoon will settle over the Southwest this week. Expect
increasing southwest winds and a chance of rain and snow showers
Monday and Tuesday.

.Wednesday through Friday...The trough of low pressure will
continue to bring unsettled weather with the best chances of
precipitation on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will be
near to below average each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff