Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
949 PM MST Fri Aug 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deep moisture will persist over central and southern
Arizona, bringing afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area. Areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim
will see the most activity through the weekend. Some storms will
produce heavy rainfall, hail, and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Trends over the last hour are toward more isolated
showers across northern Arizona, with the exception of northern
Gila county which is remaining quite active. It was another
afternoon and evening of storms producing large and severe hail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /328 PM MST/...The overall pattern remains
relatively unchanged over the weekend with storms favoring the
Rim southward through the afternoon with storms moving to the
southwest. This will depend on nighttime convection and how much
lingering morning cloud cover exists. Temperatures will remain
near average for this time of year, except for some of the
northern valleys such as near Winslow and Page that are quite warm
due to the lack of shower activity.

It looks like early next week will see a thinning of moisture
resulting in less storm coverage, but moisture will increase
again by the middle of the week as a deeper southerly flow
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue
across most of northern Arizona for the next 24 hrs. Expect
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop 19Z-
04Z, mostly over higher terrain, and to move off to the west to
southwest. Winds will be generally light at 5-10 kts with
afternoon gusts 10-20 kts. Stronger winds and hail possible near
any storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep moisture will remain in place along and south
of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms in these areas through the
weekend, with scattered storms mainly over the higher terrain
north of the Mogollon Rim to the Utah boarder. Strong outflow
winds, heavy rainfall, hail, and frequent lightning are the
primary hazards.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through the period, with the best chances for
storms continuing to be over the higher terrain and along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KD/MCT
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
549 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINETOP-LAKESIDE        34.13N 109.94W
08/09/2018                   NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8" DIAMETER FRUIT TREE WAS SNAPPED IN HALF
            DUE TO GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
            OUTFLOW OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
            PINETOP-LAKESIDE.

&&

NL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
629 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

AZZ007-015-110200-
Coconino Plateau-Western Mogollon Rim-
629 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
MST...

At 629 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Valle, or 30 miles southwest of Desert View at Grand Canyon, moving
southwest at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3580 11209 3566 11198 3552 11214 3572 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 046DEG 6KT 3568 11212

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
641 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

AZZ008-018-037-110230-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County
Mountains-
641 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES UNTIL
730 PM MST...

At 640 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Pine, or 10 miles west of Payson, moving southwest at
10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tonto Natural Bridge State Park.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3440 11151 3427 11136 3412 11149 3431 11174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 046DEG 10KT 3429 11151

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
903 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             SELIGMAN                35.33N 112.88W
08/10/2018  E0.88 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

0730 PM     HAIL             3 W SELIGMAN            35.34N 112.93W
08/10/2018  E1.75 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 PM     HAIL             2 WNW SELIGMAN          35.33N 112.91W
08/10/2018  E0.75 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1032 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

AZZ008-037-110600-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
1032 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM
MST...

At 1032 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Horseshoe Reservoir, or 11 miles northwest of
Sycamore Creek, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Horseshoe Reservoir.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3400 11174 3413 11175 3414 11155 3400 11150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 063DEG 8KT 3407 11160

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1121 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

AZZ013-016-017-110700-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-White Mountains-Eastern
Mogollon Rim-
1121 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MST...

At 1118 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms south of Holbrook extending to Heber-Overgaard.
Movement was west at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Show Low, Taylor, Clay Springs, Shumway, Wagon Wheel, Aripine,
Linden, Pinedale, Fort Apache Reservation, Snowflake, Cibecue, Gentry
Campground, Heber-overgaard, Dry Lake, Fool Hollow Lake Campground,
Lewis Canyon Group Campground, Black Canyon Rim Campground, Chevelon
Crossing Campground and White Mountain Apache Reservation.

LAT...LON 3400 11001 3400 11075 3426 11075 3426 11076
      3429 11076 3430 11078 3464 11079 3464 11075
      3488 11075 3489 11005 3397 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 070DEG 15KT 3462 11041 3431 11055

JDS