Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
324 PM MST Wed Aug 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deeper moisture has returned to areas along and
south of the Mogollon Rim, thus look for increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms through this weekend. Soem sstorms will
produce heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Several strong storms this afternoon, dropping hail
and 1+ inches of rain in less than one hour along the Mogollon
Rim. Storms are moving into Yavapai and northern Gila counties
now, with outflow wind gusts to 70 mph possible in these areas.

High pressure to sit over the desert southwest for several
days. Monsoon moisture to increase as well and the stage is set
for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through this weekend at least. The Four Corners are to see
isolated covered through Thursday before an increase in storm
coverage arrives there.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect showers and thunderstorms
along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong, with the potential
for large hail and wind gusts above 50 knots possible. General storm
motion will be from the northeast to southwest around 5 knots. In
addition, MVFR visibilities are possible under the heaviest rain
showers. Shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease after 06Z,
with another round of storms forecast after 18Z Thursday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Good monsoon moisture will remain in place along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are forecast in these area each day, with
more isolated activity north of the Mogollon Rim. Strong outflow
winds, heavy rainfall, hail and frequent lightning are the primary
hazards.

Saturday through Monday...An active monsoon pattern continues, with
the best chances for storms continuing to be along the south of the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005-
006.

&&

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
113 PM MST WED AUG 8 2018

AZZ015-038-082100-
Western Mogollon Rim-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
113 PM MST WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
MST...

At 112 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mountainaire, or 9 miles southwest of Flagstaff, moving south at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kachina Village...Mountainaire and I-17 between thesee points.

LAT...LON 3504 11165 3503 11177 3514 11167 3509 11161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 016DEG 9KT 3507 11169

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
203 PM MST WED AUG 8 2018

AZZ015-037-038-082200-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Oak Creek and
Sycamore Canyons-
203 PM MST WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM MST...

At 202 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorm over Junipine Resort, or 8 miles north of Sedona,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sedona, Junipine Resort, Garland's Oak Creek Lodge, Slide Rock State
Park, Cave Springs Campground, Pine Flat Campground, Manzanita
Campground, Sterling Fish Hatchery and West Fork Of Oak Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 11176 3506 11170 3481 11175 3489 11198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 041DEG 11KT 3498 11180

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
247 PM MST WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HAIL             7 W SLIDE ROCK          34.94N 111.87W
08/08/2018  E0.88 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            HAIL STONE APPEARED TO BE IN BETWEEN THE
            SIZE OF A QUARTER AND A NICKEL.

&&

RR