Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
today. Storms may produce heavy rain that could lead to flooding.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of northwestern
Arizona until this evening. Warmer afternoon temperatures and
decreasing storm coverage should start Sunday and persist through
much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A remnant mesoscale circulation from last night's
convective system can be seen on satellite this afternoon moving
northward along the Colorado River near Bullhead City. Northern
Arizona remains on the eastern periphery of this feature and has
seen scattered thunderstorm activity develop this afternoon.
Storms have mostly been producing a lot of cloud to ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Storms are moving to the
north or northwest at about 10-20 mph. A Flash Flood Watch
continues for a portion of northwestern Arizona where training
storms could lead to areas of heavy rain and flash flooding. A few
stronger cells could also produce hail. Storms should begin to
decrease after sunset this evening as the circulation moves north.

Sunday will begin to see decreasing moisture levels leading to a
downward trend in thunderstorm activity lasting into the coming
week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected,
favoring the higher terrain areas of northern Arizona.
Thunderstorm threats will transition to lightning and gusty
outflow winds. Temperatures will also begin to increase Sunday
through the upcoming week reaching at least 5 to 8 degrees above
late July averages. Heat advisory/warning products may be needed
by the middle of the week for some of the lowest elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered thunderstorms with
heavy rain and hail will affect central and northwestern Arizona
through this evening affecting KFLG, KGCN and KPGA terminals.
Isolated to scattered storms elsewhere in northern Arizona. MVFR
and IFR conditions expected in the strongest storms. Storm
coverage and intensity will gradually diminish after 02z Sun. VFR
conditions outside of storm activity. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
affect Coconino County through the afternoon. Isolated to
scattered storms can be expected elsewhere. Sunday will begin to
see a gradual decrease in thunderstorm activity lasting into next
week. Temperatures will also begin to warm above average Sunday
into next week.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect warming temperatures as a
strong high builds over the southwest US. Isolated to scattered afternoon
showers/storms are expected to continue, but with less coverage
and intensity than observed last week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MST
this evening FOR AZZ004>007-015.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
151 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2018

AZZ015-016-212115-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
151 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY ALONG LAKE
MARY ROAD FROM MORMON LAKE TO CLINTS WELL UNTIL 215 PM MST...

At 148 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Mormon Lake to 6 miles southeast of Happy Jack.
Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

Half inch to dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mormon Lake, Dairy Springs Campground, Happy Jack and Double Springs
Campground, Lake Mary Road from Mormon Lake to Clints Well.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these
storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 11156 3462 11145 3460 11126 3502 11137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 151DEG 16KT 3497 11146 3467 11133

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
218 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2018

AZZ015-016-212200-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
218 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY FROM CLINTS WELL
TO FLAGSTAFF UNTIL 300 PM MST...

At 217 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mountainaire to 6 miles northwest of
Clints Well. Movement was northwest at 10 mph.

Half inch to dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Flagstaff, Munds Park, Clints Well, Happy Jack, Kachina Village,
Stoneman Lake, Mountainaire, Mormon Lake, Walnut Canyon National
Monument, Clints Well Campground, Lake View Campground, Double
Springs Campground, Lake Mary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 11154 3467 11155 3481 11155 3481 11161
      3522 11174 3516 11153 3451 11129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 114DEG 11KT 3506 11157 3462 11140

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2018

AZZ015-212230-
Western Mogollon Rim-
301 PM MST SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY
180 NORTH OF FORT VALLEY UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 259 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Valley, or 13 miles northwest of Flagstaff, moving north at 15
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Valley, highway 180 from Fort Valley to 10 miles northwest of
Fort Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 11171 3525 11187 3546 11192 3547 11171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 174DEG 13KT 3532 11179

JJ

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