Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

October 23, 2018Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 23, 2018, 4:12 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 23, 2018, 4:12 PM MST (23:12 UTC)
Expired: Oct 23, 2018, 4:44 PM MST
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 319 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 23, 3:24 PM MST, 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 23, 3:24 PM MST, 48 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 23, 1:47 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
147 PM MST TUE OCT 23 2018

AZZ008-037-038-232115-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-Oak Creek
and Sycamore Canyons-
147 PM MST TUE OCT 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM
COTTONWOOD TO JUST EAST OF DEWEY UNTIL 215 PM MST...

At 145 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a line
extending from Cottonwood to 6 miles southwest of Cherry.
Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarkdale, Verde Village, Bridgeport, Cherry, Cottonwood, Page
Springs, Cornville, Tuzigoot National Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 11185 3441 11200 3450 11217 3485 11203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 311DEG 9KT 3474 11200 3451 11211

JJ

Special weather statement, Oct 23, 2:42 PM MST, 1 hour 30 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
242 PM MST TUE OCT 23 2018

AZZ008-037-232215-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
242 PM MST TUE OCT 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM
MST...

At 235 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm just
north of Dewey-Humboldt, around 3 miles north of the intersection of
Highway 69 and 169.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Extreme east side of Prescott Valley and Dewey-Humboldt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 11235 3468 11225 3460 11207 3444 11218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 298DEG 14KT 3456 11222

JJ

Local storm report, Oct 23, 2:45 PM MST, 1 hour 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST TUE OCT 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 WNW PARKS             35.29N 112.06W
10/23/2018                   COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER AT I-40 AND DEER FARM RD SPOTTED A
            FUNNEL CLOUD APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF
            THEIR LOCATION. REPORT WITH PHOTOS VIA NWS
            FLAGSTAFF FACEBOOK.

&&

MCT

Special weather statement, Oct 23, 3:18 PM MST, 54 minutes before

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Local storm report, Oct 23, 3:37 PM MST, 35 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 23, 4:02 PM MST, 10 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 22, 5:41 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		49 min
Oct 23, 1:42 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		33 min
Oct 23, 2:09 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		36 min
Oct 23, 7:26 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	3 hr
Oct 23, 7:46 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	44 min
Oct 23, 8:13 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	47 min
Oct 23, 9:03 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Apache	42 min
Oct 23, 9:19 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		26 min
Oct 23, 10:11 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		49 min
Oct 23, 10:49 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	41 min
Oct 23, 11:41 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	3 hr
Oct 23, 1:47 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	28 min
Oct 23, 2:22 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	113 min
Oct 23, 2:42 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	33 min
Oct 23, 3:01 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Oct 23, 3:18 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	42 min
Oct 23, 4:02 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		43 min
Oct 23, 4:57 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Gila, Yavapai	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.