Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

October 21, 2018Navajo County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 21, 2018, 4:06 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 21, 2018, 4:06 PM MDT (22:06 UTC)
Expired
Oct 21, 2018, 4:45 PM MDT
In force
39 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.25 in
Wind
50.0 mph

County Navajo County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2018-10-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 358 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2018-10-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 123 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
358 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1094 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
174 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 21, 11:42 AM MDT, 4 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 11:42 AM MDT, 4 hours 24 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 21, 3:40 PM MDT, 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

AZZ012-013-040-212230-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
240 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 239 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking two strong thunderstorms 9
miles east of Rimmy Jims, or 12 miles northwest of Winslow, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winslow and Homolovi State Park Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 11065 3510 11097 3533 11082 3526 11039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 261DEG 11KT 3516 11087

41
Special weather statement, Oct 21, 3:57 PM MDT, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
257 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

AZZ007-012-212245-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Coconino Plateau-
257 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
MST...

At 255 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Desert View at Grand Canyon, moving northeast at
20 mph. This storm to affect highway 89 between milemarkers 475 and
490 around 330 PM MST (430 PM MDT).

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas OF Coconino County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 11157 3596 11165 3614 11139 3602 11130
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 234DEG 16KT 3595 11159

41

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 21, 6:43 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementFGZYavapai47 min
Oct 21, 7:39 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementFGZ51 min
Oct 21, 8:27 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementFGZ48 min
Oct 21, 9:19 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementFGZ41 min
Oct 21, 1:44 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZApache3 hr
Oct 21, 2:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino14 min
Oct 21, 3:07 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFGZCoconino23 min
Oct 21, 3:40 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementFGZNavajo50 min
Oct 21, 3:57 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementFGZCoconino48 min
Oct 21, 4:44 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningFGZNavajo3 hr
Oct 21, 5:32 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino28 min
Oct 21, 5:55 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino35 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.