Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
248 PM MST Mon Aug 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect storm activity today, with isolated to
scattered storms over Yavapai and Coconino counties. A significant
moisture increase will develop later tonight through Tuesday,
with showers and thundertorms becoming likely. This moisture will
stay around for the remainder of the week, with a good chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The ridge over eastern AZ-NM continues to move east
and looks to settle in over Texas by Wednesday where models
indicate it should stay at least into the weekend. This has
already opened the tap to the Gulf of California moisture which
has pushed up to the Mogollon Rim and into Northern Coconino
County. A few thunderstorms have fired off in Coconino and Yavapai
Counties, and along the Mogollon Rim southeast to the Whites.
Skies remain mostly clear across the rest of northern Arizona
building energy for widely spread isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across much of the area late this afternoon into
the evening. There is a possibility for storms overnight south of
the Mogollon Rim and in Yavapai County if convective activity to
our south kicks off today. Stay tuned.

High resolution models indicate Tuesday to be a very active day
across the area. A classic monsoonal pattern will dominate
Wednesday into the weekend with deep southerly flow pumping
moisture north. Long range models indicate a possible change to a
more Fall like pattern early next week with a trough digging deep
from the northwest, though confidence is low as there is little
consistency run-to-run.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Primarily VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Continued isolated storms along and north of the
Mogollon Rim through 03Z; along with a chance for overnight isolated
storms near KPRC, KSEZ, KFLG. Anticipate areas of MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty/erratic winds within the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Increasing storm coverage Tuesday after 18Z and
throughout the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For the remainder of today, isolated showers and
thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains and
northward. Moisture will continue to push across Arizona tonight
through Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler on Tuesday by 5 to 10 degrees. Wednesday will
experience continued moisture leading to scattered to numerous
storms and showers again.

.Thursday through Saturday...Monsoon moisture will persist across
northern Arizona with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...ML
FIRE WEATHER...ML

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
140 PM MST MON AUG 20 2018

AZZ008-015-037-038-202130-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Yavapai County
Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
140 PM MST MON AUG 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 PM MST...

At 139 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles north of Clarkdale
to 9 miles northeast of Perkinsville. Movement was northeast at 15
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Raymond Boy Scout Camp and White Horse Lake Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 11184 3531 11186 3503 11215 3473 11214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 226DEG 11KT 3485 11209 3501 11210

JDS

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