Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
922 AM MST Sun Jul 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The monsoon weather pattern will persist over the
region through next week, with daily rounds of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
The short term forecast looks good. Satellite imagery showing
mostly clear skies across northeast AZ with partly cloudy
conditions along across yavapai and western Coconino counties.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the
high terrain by around noon with storms drifting to the west
southwest during the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds of 50+ mph are
possible late this afternoon across the lower elevations of
Yavapai County. High resolution models are indicating a second
round of storms moving from NM into northern AZ this evening and
overnight, this covered well with the current forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /443 AM MST/... Deep monsoonal moisture is
expected over the next week under a favorable flow aloft. An
active period with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected across northern Arizona. Some storms are likely to be
strong enough to generate marginally severe hail and wind gusts,
along with the potential for localized flooding. Temperatures
will be generally on par for what is considered normal this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18z package...Expect scattered to numerous
-SHRA/-TSRA through 12z Monday. Storms will initiate over the higher
terrain with a general west-southwest movement. Most widespread
storm coverage expected over Yavapai and Coconino counties. Another
round of storms may develop across eastern AZ this afternoon and
move toward the southwest through the evening. Storms could produce
brief MVFR conditions and gusty winds to 45 kts. VFR outside of any
storm activity. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the weekend and
into next week. Storm activity will increase Monday and Tuesday,
with coverage becoming more widespread through the week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL/KD
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff