Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

721 
WGUS75 KFGZ 180327
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
827 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2018

AZC005-180430-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180818T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
827 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MST FOR
COCONINO COUNTY...

At 823 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain has ended. Runoff 
from earlier heavy rainfall will cause flash flooding along Deer 
Creek north of the Colorado River.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Tapeats Creek...
Kanab Creek...Colorado River...Deer Creek and Jumpup Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 11250 3637 11262 3646 11257 3646 11246
      3645 11240

$$

MCT

871 
WGUS75 KFGZ 180423
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2018

AZC005-180432-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180818T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
923 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM
MST...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat at this time. Continue to use caution as water levels will 
remain elevated along Deer Creek tonight.

LAT...LON 3634 11250 3637 11262 3646 11257 3646 11246
      3645 11240

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
249 PM MST Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A standard monsoon weather pattern will continue
across much of Arizona today, with scattered, mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. A drying trend will develop over the
weekend, with only isolated storms expected. Moisture increases
again starting Tuesday, with a return to active monsoon
conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
An active monsoon day continues with scattered showers across the
area will through this afternoon and evening. An 18z upper air
sounding shows abundant moisture at the lower levels, along with
limited steering flow.

Radar and satellite analysis has confirmed this, with slow storm
movement from discreet cells across the area. The stronger storms
with larger rainfall amounts continue to be across Yavapai county
where abundant moisture along with the solar insolation have lead
to an efficient rainfall producing storm environment.

Flooding looks to be the main threat through sunset when most of
the storms will decrease when convective heating shuts off.

Going into Saturday moisture is expected to decrease as the upper
level ridge further West and allows for drier northwest flow to
move over the area. Some afternoon storms are expected over the
higher peaks as near surface conditions begin to dry out.

This drying and warming trend is expected to last through Sunday
and into Monday as the ridge moves back east towards the Four
Corners area. By Tuesday this shift in the position of the ridge
will cause moist southerly flow to again advect abundant moisture
back into Arizona, and bring increasing afternoon thunderstorms
beginning Tuesday and increasing through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms with brief MVFR/IFR conditions will continue into this
evening...then decrease. Winds will be generally light, except near
the stronger storms, where sfc wind gusts to 40 kts are possible.
ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA will develop again after 17Z Saturday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
decrease this evening across the district. The airmass will begin to
dry out on Saturday as northwesterly flow develops. Enough moisture
will remain to keep a threat of convection over the southeastern
portions of the district and dewpoints will remain relatively
high. Mostly dry conditions are expected on Sunday.

.Monday through Wednesday...Mainly dry conditions are expected
Monday, with light westerly flow and a drying boundary layer.
There may be enough moisture for isolated convection over the
White Mountains. Moisture returns to many areas Tuesday as a more
favorable circulation develops. Moisture will continue to increase
on Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SSE CONGRESS         34.03N 112.79W
08/17/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STREAM GAUGE ON MARTINEZ CREEK SHOWED AROUND
            A 2 FOOT RISE FROM DRY TO 1400 CFS.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 PM MST FRI AUG 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SSE CONGRESS         34.02N 112.81W
08/17/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED ON MATTHIE RANCH ROAD.

&&

JJ