Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

871 
WGUS75 KFGZ 031055
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 AM MST FRI AUG 3 2018

AZC025-031102-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-180803T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
355 AM MST FRI AUG 3 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM
MST...

A stream gauge on the Agua Fria River above Black Canyon City 
reported a rise of about 2 feet as of 1:34 AM MST. Water levels have 
been receding since then. However, expect elevated water levels in 
the Agua Fria this morning as water continues to recede. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3408 11216 3410 11212 3414 11211 3418 11213
      3430 11206 3429 11209 3432 11210 3433 11205
      3424 11204 3421 11208 3417 11207 3409 11208
      3405 11212 3405 11216 3404 11216 3404 11218

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
915 PM MST Thu Aug 02 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect afternoon and evening chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Friday. For the weekend, chances decrease as a
passing disturbance brings drier air to the area. Moisture returns
early next week, with storm chances increasing across the northland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large MCS formed over south Phoenix this evening and
is currently pushing a significant outflow into Yavapai county. That
will make for at least a few hours of active convection in southern
and central Yavapai county. A second outflow in the LCR has kept
convection active from Winslow eastward this evening, this area
should decrease as the outflow encounters cooler air.

Most activity should be over around Midnight MST, although debris
cloud and light stratiform showers will linger.

Expecting another active day on Friday, with similar shear and
moisture profile. A rather abrupt shift to westerly flow over the
weekend will bring a drying and warming trend, before monsoonal
circulation redevelops early next week, brining active conditons
back the the area.

Updates sent earlier for POP trends, no further updates tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...An active area of convection will
persist over southern Yavapai county through 08Z. A secondary area
east of KINW will also decrease as it heads toward the NM border.
Expect brief MVFR/IFR in these convective areas, Elsewhere, wdsprd
debris cloud with bases from 8-10kft agl will produce light -shra
through 09Z-10Z. Most areas VFR after 10Z. Expect sct-nmrs shra/tsra
and isold +tsra again aft 18Z-20Z Friday, persisting through early
Friday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Areas from the Mogollon Rim southward will
continue to remain favored for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again on Friday. Erratic outflow winds should be expected near any
thunderstorm activity. In addition, heavy rain and hail will also be
possible. Temperatures will remain above average. A warming and
drying trend is expected to develop on Saturday, with limited
thunderstorm activity.

Sunday through Tuesday...The downward trend in thunderstorm activity
will continue on Sunday, due to westerly flow aloft. An increase in
monsoonal activity is possible again by Monday or Tuesday, as deeper
moisture and a more favorable circulation returns to the region.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Suk/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff