Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

128 
WGUS75 KFGZ 022246
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
346 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

AZC025-030115-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-180803T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
346 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 343 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the Goodwin Fire Scar. Up to two inches of rain have 
already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly along 
Big Bug Creek in Mayer.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Mayer, Cordes and Spring Valley. 

This includes the following streams and drainages...Turkey Creek...
Badger Spring Wash...Antelope Creek...Little Wolf Creek...Cedar
Creek...Grapevine Creek...Agua Fria River...Wolf Creek...Hackberry
Creek...Big Bug Creek and Mineral Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Heavy rainfall over the Goodwin fire scar will likely trigger life
threatening flash floods and debris flows in and downstream of the
fire area. Residences near drainages and creeks, particularly Big Bug
Creek and surrounding tributaries such as Grapevine Creek and
Hackberry Creek, may be affected by high water and debris flows.
Heavy rains may cause dangerous flooding across roadways in Mayer
near Big Bug Creek. Move away from drainages now!

&&

LAT...LON 3441 11220 3430 11210 3429 11212 3434 11230
      3443 11234 3446 11230

$$

TPS

592 
WGUS75 KFGZ 030017
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
517 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

AZC025-030115-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-180803T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
517 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 514 PM MST, flooding has been reported in low lying areas along 
Big Bug Creek. Please heed all evacuation orders that have been 
given along Big Bug Creek. 

Heavy rain has ended on the Goodwin Fire Scar and water levels along 
Big Bug Creek are expected to continue to recede through the 
evening. However, flood waters will flow into the Agua Fria River 
with flash flood conditions expected this evening. An additional 
Flash Flood Warning has been issued for the Agua Fria River from 
Cordes Lakes to Black Canyon City. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Mayer, Cordes and Spring Valley. 

This includes the following streams and drainages...Turkey Creek...
Badger Spring Wash...Antelope Creek...Little Wolf Creek...Cedar
Creek...Grapevine Creek...Agua Fria River...Wolf Creek...Hackberry
Creek...Big Bug Creek and Mineral Creek.

This includes the following highways..
  State Route 69 between mile markers 265 and 274.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Heavy rainfall over the Goodwin fire scar will likely trigger life
threatening flash floods and debris flows in and downstream of the
fire area. Residences near drainages and creeks, particularly Big Bug
Creek and surrounding tributaries such as Grapevine Creek and
Hackberry Creek, may be affected by high water and debris flows.
Heavy rains may cause dangerous flooding across roadways in Mayer
near Big Bug Creek. Move away from drainages now!

&&

LAT...LON 3441 11220 3430 11210 3429 11212 3434 11230
      3443 11234 3446 11230

$$

TPS

937 
WGUS75 KFGZ 030113
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
613 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

AZC025-030122-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-180803T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
613 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM
MST...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters are receding on Big Bug Creek 
at Mayer. Flooding in the Mayer area is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3441 11220 3430 11210 3429 11212 3434 11230
      3443 11234 3446 11230

$$
41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 PM MST Thu Aug 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect afternoon and evening chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Friday. For the weekend, chances decrease as
a passing disturbance brings drier air across our area. Moisture
returns early next week with storm chances increasing across the
northland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoonal moisture will continue to create a favorable environment
for widespread showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening hours today. Light steering flow will allow for slow
moving storms to create situations where flash flooding may occur
especially over flood prone locations.

Most of the stronger activity continues to be located in Yavapai
county this evening where skies clear significantly earlier in the
day than other locations along the rim. This allowed for increase
solar insolation and subsequent heating to occur.

Storm-top winds are pushing cloud tops generally off to the
northeast and creating additional shade, limiting further
widespread insolation and modifying the airmass across much of the
high country. This is helping further limit storm growth and
aligns well with with current lifted index values highest in
Yavapai County and dropping across much of the Mogollon Rim.

Storm activity should begin to decrease across the area around
sunset as diurnal heating shuts off.

A similar situation is expected again on Friday as daytime
heating initiates convection over the higher terrain with
expectations for the bulk of the shower activity to develop over
the rim and propagate across Yavapai and Gila counties.

A drying trend is expected to develop Saturday and Sunday as
zonal flow moves into the southern great basin and cuts down on
our available moisture. The decrease in available moisture will
result in convection being limited to the highest terrain such as
the White Mountain and San Fransisco Peaks. However by early next
week moisture should be increasing again as the zonal flow moves
back northward and the ridge redevelops allowing for moisture to
once again flow into northern Arizona from the Gulf of California.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect thunderstorms activity to
diminish this evening mainly after 02Z. Local IFR in +RA, erratic
wind gusts, and hail will be possible near any of the stronger
storm cells. Storm activity should begin to diminish after 02Z
Fri. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
AdditionalShowers are expected to develop Friday around 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Areas from the Mogollon Rim southward will
continue to remain favored for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again on Friday. Erratic outflow winds should be expected near
any thunderstorm activity. In addition, heavy rain and hail will
also be possible. Temperatures will remain above average. A
warming and drying trend is expected to develop on Saturday and
limit thunderstorm activity.

Sunday through Tuesday...The downward trend in thunderstorm
coverage will continue over the weekend. An increase in monsoonal
activity is possible on Monday and Tuesday as deeper moisture
returns to the region.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...Suk

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1140 AM MST THU AUG 2 2018

AZZ008-037-021930-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
1140 AM MST THU AUG 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM
MST...

At 1139 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Yavapai Campground, or near Prescott Valley, moving east at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prescott Valley, Prescott, Yavapai Campground, Downtown Prescott,
Prescott Airport, Indian Hill West Prescott and Prescott Gateway
Mall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 11250 3464 11258 3474 11247 3454 11234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 249DEG 8KT 3461 11249

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1249 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

AZZ007-008-037-022030-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County
Mountains-
1249 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 1248 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Ash Fork, or 23 miles north of Chino Valley, moving
east at 5 mph. This storm may impact SR 89 south of Ash Fork.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Yavapai and
Coconino Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 11253 3517 11252 3520 11236 3499 11237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 266DEG 5KT 3511 11247

RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
138 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             4 ENE IRON SPRINGS      34.60N 112.50W
08/02/2018  M1.00 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BY THE
            PUBLIC AS A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVED OVER
            THE PRESCOTT AREA.

&&

TPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
256 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E PRESCOTT COURTHOUSE 34.55N 112.40W
08/02/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSING HIGH WATER (DEPTH
            UNKNOWN) ON HWY 69 AT LEE BLVD.

&&

41