Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

971 
WGUS75 KFGZ 020145
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
645 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

AZC007-020152-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-180802T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila-
645 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GILA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

At 640 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that 
rain had ended in the Kohls Ranch area. No reports of Flash Flooding 
have been received, although about 2 inches of rain fell just east 
of Kohls Ranch.

Area creeks and washes may still have higher than normal water 
levels this evening, but the Flash Flood Warning will be cancelled 
as Flash Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3413 11125 3440 11116 3437 11114 3438 11114
      3438 11112 3439 11110 3437 11104 3436 11106
      3434 11104 3434 11103 3436 11103 3437 11102
      3434 11099 3433 11097 3432 11097 3409 11109

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A generally mid-grade monsoonal pattern will continue
through Friday, with daily afternoon and evening chances for
showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, chances decrease as a
passing disturbance brings drier air in across the area before
some moisture returns for the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As expected, there has been much more convection
firing across the higher terrain of northern Arizona this
afternoon as compared to yesterday. Storms are generally moving
toward the south. A strong outflow boundary is currently pushing
southwest off the Rim into northern Gila and eastern Yavapai
County. This will likely be the focus for more storm development
through the afternoon and evening. The primary threats today so
far have been gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. The deeper
moisture remains confined to the Rim and south so again there has
been little convective development over the Four Corners region.
Some showers and storms will likely persist into the evening
hours, but coverage and intensity is expected to gradually diminish
after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Similar conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with storms
initiating over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains around midday
then moving toward the south and southwest into the lower
elevations through the afternoon and evening. One difference we
expect to see is more shower and thunderstorm development north
and east of the Rim as some deeper moisture advects into that
region.

A noticeable downward trend in the monsoon activity is expected
over the weekend as a weak disturbance passing to the north brings
in some drier air.

Long range models continue to struggle with the pattern evolution
downstream as a deep Pacific trough moves toward the West Coast.
Differing solutions are offered with respect to the high placement
and strength, but general consensus is the high will build back
west toward the Great Basin with monsoonal moisture increasing
again across the region. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim will continue to push toward
the south and southwest into the lower elevations through 02Z Thu.
Storm coverage and intensity will gradually diminish after sunset.
Brief IFR conditions and erratic wind gusts will be the main
aviation concerns. VFR conditions expected outside of any storms.
Similar shower and thunderstorm development is expected after 18Z
Thu. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deeper moisture will continue to reside along and
south of the Mogollon Rim over the next few days. This area will
remain the focus for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some
increase in thunderstorm activity is anticipated north and east of
the Rim with deeper moisture arriving in that region. High
temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal.

Saturday through Monday...A downward trend in thunderstorm coverage
is expected over the weekend. An increase in monsoonal activity is
possible on Monday as some deeper moisture could return to the
region.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
103 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

AZZ016-012030-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-
103 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 103 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Aripine, or 18 miles east of Forest Lakes, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Springs, Pinedale, Aripine and Lewis Canyon Group Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 11061 3444 11049 3436 11014 3412 11034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 303DEG 19KT 3433 11047

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
209 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

AZZ012-015-016-038-012200-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Western Mogollon
Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
209 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MST...

At 208 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fort Valley to 10 miles north of Tremaine
Lake. Movement was southwest at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Flagstaff, Dairy Springs Campground, Flagstaff Mall, Hutchison Acres,
Kachina Village, Cosnino, Winona, Mormon Lake, Downtown Flagstaff,
Tremaine Lake, Doney Park, Fort Valley, Bellemont, Walnut Canyon
National Monument, Twin Arrows, Mountainaire, Upper Lake Mary, Walnut
Canyon Visitors Center, Little Elden Spring Horse Camp and Ashurst
Lake Campgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 11198 3472 11125 3508 11107 3532 11157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 061DEG 14KT 3523 11172 3491 11119

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
359 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

AZZ018-012330-
Northern Gila County-
359 PM MST WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MST...

At 358 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles northwest of Hilltop, or 28 miles northeast of Roosevelt,
moving south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3366 11079 3393 11082 3394 11060 3385 11055
      3384 11057 3380 11068 3365 11078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 346DEG 7KT 3385 11069

KD