Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

671 
WGUS75 KFGZ 140308
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
808 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZC005-140530-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180714T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
808 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM MST FOR
COCONINO COUNTY...

At 804 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated the heaviest rain had ended, 
with moderate rain continuing over the warned area. Between one and 
two inches of rain has fallen just west of Highway 89a between Mile 
Marker 546 and 553. There is a significant threat of Flooding over 
Highway 89a.

Flash flooding is also expected to impact the following streams and 
drainages...South Fork Soap Creek...House Rock Wash...Emmett 
Wash...Soap Creek and Badger Canyon.

This includes U.S. Highway 89A between mile markers 546 and 553.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. Dry
washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 11179 3671 11191 3679 11187 3679 11176
      3673 11170

$$

807 
WGUS75 KFGZ 140527
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZC005-140536-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180714T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
1027 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM
MST...

The heavy rain has ended, and Flood waters have receded. Additional 
flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3666 11179 3671 11191 3679 11187 3679 11176
      3673 11170

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
252 PM MST Fri Jul 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The monsoon weather pattern will persist over Arizona
through next week, with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. The main threat with storms from today through the
weekend will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Storms early this afternoon have been slow
moving. Fortunately, the lack of vertical shear has also inhibited
storm organization thus far, with most cells producing heavy
precipitation for a fairly short time before decreasing in
intensity. Storms into central/eastern Yavapai County are
persisting a little longer and producing larger areas of heavy
rain. Expect this trend to continue through the afternoon into
early evening, with the majority of storms remaining over/near
higher terrain features due to the light steering flow. Hi-res
convection allowing models still are fairly consistent in
forecasting a cluster of storms moving off the high terrain in
western NM through portions of the Little Colorado River valley
and the eastern Mogollon Rim this evening. We will maintain
elevated precip chances in these areas.

Ensemble forecasts show precipitable water values increasing
slightly into this weekend, then remaining fairly steady through
the early part of next week before perhaps decreasing slightly
later next week. At any rate, it is expected that there will be
plenty of available moisture for showers and thunderstorms
throughout next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect slow moving showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR conditions during the late afternoon and
evening. Generally VFR conditions to persist outside of any storms.
Storms anticipated to decrease in overall coverage and intensity
after 03Z Saturday, before ramping up again after 17Z Saturday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep moisture will remain over northern Arizona for
the next several days. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast period, especially during the
daylight hours. Winds will generally be light, though gusty winds
may develop near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...AT
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
234 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZZ008-037-132215-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
234 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEROME IN YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MST...

At 234 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jerome , or 18 miles northwest of Camp Verde. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jerome, Potato Patch Campground, Mingus Mountain Campground and
Playground Group Campground.

LAT...LON 3473 11219 3478 11210 3474 11205 3467 11212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 311DEG 3KT 3473 11211

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SE CARRIZO            33.90N 110.17W
07/13/2018                   GILA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CEDAR CREEK PEAKED WITH A 5 FT RISE AND IS
            NOW RECEDING.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
442 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW MAYER              34.41N 112.25W
07/13/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EAST CENTRAL AVE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
535 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZZ012-015-140100-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Western Mogollon Rim-
535 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
MST...

At 533 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Gray Mountain, or 29 miles north of Flagstaff. this
storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Driving along Hwy 89 will be hazardous due to heavy
rain, small hail, strong winds, and limited visibility.

Locations impacted include...Highway 89 near the entrance to Wupatki
National Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 11142 3552 11148 3557 11163 3571 11158
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 262DEG 2KT 3561 11152

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
631 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZZ011-040-140215-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
631 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR APACHE COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM MST...

At 629 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Window Rock, or 21 miles west of Gallup, moving west at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Interstate 40 from Sanders to the New Mexico border, Pine Springs,
Window Rock, Fort Defiance, Sanders, Oak Springs Valley, Houck and
St. Michaels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Driving may become hazardous on area roads due to ponding of water.
Area streams may be running high from the rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 10943 3586 10944 3588 10905 3517 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 088DEG 18KT 3562 10910