Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

832 
WGUS75 KFGZ 132353
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
453 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZC025-140000-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180714T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
453 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

Emergency management reported an earlier closure of Central Avenue 
in Mayer due to flooding. Big Bug Creek has begun to recede and 
flooding is no longer expected to post a threat. Please continue to 
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3445 11227 3444 11222 3434 11214 3433 11216
      3435 11218 3436 11229 3438 11237 3444 11237
      3446 11231

$$

TPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1008 AM MST Fri Jul 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The monsoon weather pattern will persist over Arizona
through early next week, with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. The main threat with storms from today through the
weekend will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...Plentiful moisture remains in place over northern
Arizona at this time. In addition, mostly clear skies are allowing
for heating to develop some fairly robust cumulus over higher
elevation areas. Hi-res convection allowing models indicate
scattered to numerous storms over primarily the higher terrain
late this morning into this afternoon, with fairly good agreement
on a complex moving out of New Mexico this evening and bringing
rain to portions of the Little Colorado River valley and the
eastern Mogollon Rim. Slow storm motions could lead to some high
rainfall amounts and localized flash flooding. The forecast has
been updated to lean even more toward these trends, but the
inherited forecast already had them fairly well covered.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /458 AM MST/...Deep monsoon moisture continues
over all of northern Arizona with precipitable water observed at
1.14" at Bellemont Thursday afternoon which is around 140% of
normal. Surface dewpoints were in the mid 50s to low 60s. At 4 AM,
patches of mid level clouds can be seen on satellite, but overall
cloud cover is less than what we saw Thursday morning at this
time. Model forecast soundings are indicating more instability by
late this morning and through the afternoon and this looks
reasonable since we should get more sfc heating. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain
areas by 10 or 11 AM with slow storm motion toward the west or
southwest at only 5 mph or so. The weak steering flow suggests
that storms won't make it too far off the high terrain with less
coverage expected across the lower elevations. With the slow
movement and high atmospheric moisture content, locally heavy rain
and flash flooding will be the main threat today although some
mainly small hail will also accompany some storms. Most areas will
see decreasing storm activity by mid evening but models suggest a
second wave of showers and storms could move into eastern Arizona
late in the evening so we kept higher rain chances there
overnight.

Saturday through Monday - deep moisture continues over the area
with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms and a threat of
localized flash flooding. Steering flow (toward the SW) picks up a
bit especially Sunday and Monday so lower elevation areas south
of the Mogollon Rim stand a better chance to see storms.

Tuesday through Thursday - the ridge is forecast to gradually
reposition to near the four corners by Thursday, resulting in
easterly flow becoming southeasterly. Moisture remains plentiful
along and south of the Mogollon Rim (though not quite as high as
this weekend), with a hint of some drying over far northern
Arizona. Expect a near average monsoon pattern with daily rounds
of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect mostly VFR conditions and
light winds across northern Arizona except in showers and
thunderstorms. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will generally start over the
higher terrain around 17Z and then spread or develop over the lower
terrain by the afternoon, lasting into the evening. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep moisture will remain over northern
Arizona for the next several days. Expect scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period, especially
during the daylight hours. Winds will generally be light, though
gusty winds will develop near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...AT/JJ
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1152 AM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZZ011-131930-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
1152 AM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH OF WINDOW ROCK NEAR ROUTE
12 UNTIL 1230 PM MST...

At 1149 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Oak Springs Valley, or 7 miles southwest of Window
Rock. This storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Springs Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 10933 3565 10924 3563 10904 3543 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 009DEG 2KT 3558 10915

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1155 AM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

AZZ015-131945-
Western Mogollon Rim-
1155 AM MST FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM
MST...

At 1154 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Fort Valley, or 9 miles northwest of Flagstaff. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Valley and Arizona Snowbowl.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 11178 3534 11160 3524 11162 3526 11181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 011DEG 1KT 3531 11172