Flash Flood Warning 154, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

164 
WGUS75 KFGZ 220331
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
831 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

AZC005-220615-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0154.000000T0000Z-181022T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
831 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM MST FOR
COCONINO COUNTY...

At 817 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated scattered thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. One to two inches of 
rain have fallen over portions of the western Grand Canyon, 
including upstream of Supai Village. Although rainfall coverage has 
decreased, runoff from earlier heavy rain will cause flooding 
tonight.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hualapai Hilltop, Grand Canyon National Park, Supai and Havasupai
Reservation.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Hundred and
Twenty Mile Creek...Coconino Wash...Tuna Creek...Deer Creek...Crystal
Creek...Colorado River...Heather Wash...Shinumo Creek...Pasture
Wash...Milk Creek...Prairie Wash...Black Tank Wash...Tapeats Creek...
Havasu Creek...Flint Creek...Hundred and Twentyeight Mile Creek...
Royal Arch Creek...Little Coyote Canyon...Hundred and Twentyseven
Mile Creek...Dragon Creek and Kanab Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life. 

&&

LAT...LON 3628 11279 3633 11275 3632 11273 3634 11273
      3635 11271 3635 11267 3642 11263 3640 11232
      3623 11215 3585 11265 3628 11283

$$

MCT

072 
WGUS55 KFGZ 220527
FFWFGZ
AZC005-221015-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0154.000000T0000Z-181022T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...

* Until 315 AM MST

* At 1023 PM MST, thunderstorms have moved out of the area, but 
  heavy rain from earlier this evening will cause flooding along 
  Havasu Creek in Supai tonight.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hualapai Hilltop, Supai and Havasupai Reservation.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Hundred and
Twenty Mile Creek...Coconino Wash...Tuna Creek...Deer Creek...Crystal
Creek...Colorado River...Heather Wash...Shinumo Creek...Pasture
Wash...Milk Creek...Prairie Wash...Black Tank Wash...Tapeats Creek...
Havasu Creek...Flint Creek...Hundred and Twentyeight Mile Creek...
Royal Arch Creek...Little Coyote Canyon...Hundred and Twentyseven
Mile Creek...Dragon Creek and Kanab Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.

In Supai, foot bridges will be washed out in Supai Campground. Some 
campsites will be flooded. Campers may be stranded in portions of 
the campground.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 11279 3633 11275 3632 11273 3634 11273
      3635 11271 3635 11267 3642 11263 3640 11232
      3623 11215 3585 11265 3628 11283

$$

MCT

995 
WGUS75 KFGZ 221013
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
313 AM MST MON OCT 22 2018

AZC005-221018-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0154.000000T0000Z-181022T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
313 AM MST MON OCT 22 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 315 AM
MST...

Havasu Creek is expected to rise later tonight, but serious flash 
flooding is no longer forecast. Those hiking and camping along 
Havasu Creek should be alert for higher than normal flows this 
morning and through the day on Monday.

LAT...LON 3628 11279 3633 11275 3632 11273 3634 11273
      3635 11271 3635 11267 3642 11263 3640 11232
      3623 11215 3585 11265 3628 11283

$$

BAK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
320 PM MST Sun Oct 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect unsettled weather with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Daytime temperatures
will be near normal, and any snowfall will be confined to the
highest mountain peaks. Dry weather is forecast beginning
Wednesday with above normal temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The most active areas across northern Arizona today
have been along the Kaibab Plateau in northwest Coconino County
and in the vicinity of the White Mountains. Only isolated showers
and thunderstorms have been observed elsewhere. There have been a
few strong storms today, the strongest being a rotating storm west
of Winslow that did briefly produce a tornado.

The majority of the high resolution model guidance shows two broad
areas of convection this evening. This first is associated with a
shortwave trough and may impact Graham and Cochise counties,
although is could skirt the White Mountains. The second is in
central Apache and Navajo Counties. More isolated convection is
depicted elsewhere.

It looks like Monday will see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity with the passage of a shortwave trough rotating around
the low. There will be less instability as compared to today, but
there will be stronger forcing coupled with between 30 to 40
knots of deep layer bulk shear, so some severe storms cannot be
ruled out. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue on Tuesday, before the low pressure system exits
Wednesday morning.

Dry weather with gradually warming temperatures are forecast for
the remainder of the week. High pressure in place across the area
may bring above normal temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue across northern Arizona, with the
potential for MVFR ceilings and visibilities under the stronger
storms. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with breezy south to
southeast winds, expect in the vicinity of storms where outflow
winds into the 20 to 30 knot range are possible. The best chances
for storms this evening will be north of Interstate 40. Showers
will continue overnight, with greater storm coverage forecast
after 18Z Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will continue to bring
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms to northern
Arizona. Expect breezy southerly winds on Monday, with lighter
winds Tuesday.

.Wednesday through Friday...Dry weather and gradually warming
temperatures are forecast through the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

AZZ012-013-040-212230-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
240 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 239 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking two strong thunderstorms 9
miles east of Rimmy Jims, or 12 miles northwest of Winslow, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winslow and Homolovi State Park Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 11065 3510 11097 3533 11082 3526 11039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 261DEG 11KT 3516 11087

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
257 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

AZZ007-012-212245-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Coconino Plateau-
257 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
MST...

At 255 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Desert View at Grand Canyon, moving northeast at
20 mph. This storm to affect highway 89 between milemarkers 475 and
490 around 330 PM MST (430 PM MDT).

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas OF Coconino County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 11157 3596 11165 3614 11139 3602 11130
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 234DEG 16KT 3595 11159

41

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
409 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TORNADO          5 E RIMMY JIMS          35.10N 110.94W
10/21/2018                   COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WELL DEVELOPED LAND SPOUT TORNADO NEAR MILE
            235 ON I-40.

&&

41

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 PM MST SUN OCT 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     TORNADO          3 ESE RIMMY JIMS        35.10N 110.97W
10/21/2018                   COCONINO           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 AZ DPS UNITS REPORT LAND SPOUT TORNADO
            NEAR MILE MARKER 235 ON I-40.

&&

41