Flash Flood Warning 152, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

107 
WGUS75 KFGZ 140424
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
924 PM MST SAT OCT 13 2018

AZC025-140730-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0152.000000T0000Z-181014T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
924 PM MST SAT OCT 13 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 920 PM MST, gauge reports on the Agua Fria River northeast of 
Black Canyon City indicated a 6 foot rise and nearly 4000cfs (cubic 
feet per second) of flow moving toward Black Canyon City. Expect 
Flash Flooding in the Agua Fria River at Black Canyon City 
imminently.

Stay away from the Agua Fria River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 11206 3446 11205 3442 11206 3436 11206
      3435 11200 3430 11204 3425 11205 3420 11209
      3409 11208 3408 11210 3407 11216 3411 11211
      3417 11212 3427 11207 3431 11208 3437 11212
      3440 11213 3437 11210 3434 11208 3442 11208
      3447 11207 3449 11208

$$

988 
WGUS75 KFGZ 140724
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1224 AM MST SUN OCT 14 2018

AZC025-140730-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0152.000000T0000Z-181014T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
1224 AM MST SUN OCT 14 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM
MST...

Flood waters are receding. A stream gauge on the Agua Fria at Rock 
Springs rose about about 5 feet around 11:30 pm MST. The water 
levels are receding, but expect elevated water through the early 
morning hours. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures 
and do not enter any flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 3448 11206 3446 11205 3442 11206 3436 11206
      3435 11200 3430 11204 3425 11205 3420 11209
      3409 11208 3408 11210 3407 11216 3411 11211
      3417 11212 3427 11207 3431 11208 3437 11212
      3440 11213 3437 11210 3434 11208 3442 11208
      3447 11207 3449 11208

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Sat Oct 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system entering Arizona will continue
to spread showers and embedded thunderstorms along and south of
Interstate 40, with isolated showers and storms to the north.
Expect a chance for showers to continue over the weekend. Much
colder and breezy conditions Monday as a cold front moves through
the area. Unsettled weather will continue with additional showers
possible through Wednesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A closed low was centered over the southern
California/Baja California border during the afternoon hours
continuing to head toward Arizona.

Overnight...The closed low will move across Arizona, weaken and
be absorbed into the general flow. During the evening upward
motion and moisture will remain across central and southern
Arizona. The result will be widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms from about Interstate-40 southward. North of
Interstate-40 moisture and dynamics will be much less for just
isolated activity. After midnight expecting essentially isolated
showers as the low exits the state and sinking motion puts an end
to most showers. With such wet conditions patchy fog will be
possible along the Mogollon and locations southward.

On Sunday and Monday...A strong trough and associated cold front
will push toward Arizona on Sunday. The cold front will cross the
Arizona/Utah border late Sunday afternoon then across all of
northern Arizona Sunday night. It will be much colder on Monday
with high temperatures ranging from 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Behind the cold front north to northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph
will develop adding to the chill. The threat of showers will
continue on Sunday with increasing chances during the afternoon
and Sunday evening in association with the cold frontal passage.
Before cold frontal passage some locations at elevations as low as
6000 feet could see a few snowflakes. Drier air then moves in
behind the cold front for a mainly dry Monday. Models are showing that
the cold front will stall across central Arizona. While most of
northern Arizona will be dry on Monday behind the front the White
Mountains region will continue to see a chance of showers as
moisture lingers across that area.

From Tuesday onward...In association with the trough and cold
front models show another closed low spinning-up over Arizona.
Moisture just to the south and east of the low will be drawn back
across Arizona. The result will be an increasing chance of
showers on Tuesday. In fact, snow levels will be in the 6000-7000
foot range with snow in portions of the high country Tuesday
morning a distinct possibility. For the remainder of the period
the closed low hangs around through Wednesday (or even longer in
some model runs) for unsettled conditions from Wednesday onward.
Temperatures will remain well below normal with locally breezy
east to northeast winds, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...SHRA, along with widespread
MVFR/IFR ceilings, have been observed for most areas along and south
of the Mogollon Rim. Expect this trend to continue through the
evening. Overnight, MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in fog and
isolated showers are possible, with the best chances along the
Mogollon Rim from KGCN-KFLG-KSOW. On Sunday, chances for showers
continue as a cold front sweeps across the area from the north.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A passing low will continue to deliver showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the area through this evening. Shower
activity will decrease overnight, but another round of precipitation
is possible on Sunday as a cold front sweeps across the area from
the north. By Monday, expect much cooler temperatures and breezy
north-northeast winds. Chances for showers will continue in the
White Mountains.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect below normal temperatures and
chances for showers each day as a low remains parked over the area.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ008-037.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff