Flash Flood Warning 138, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

933 
WGUS75 KFGZ 022235
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
335 PM MST SUN SEP 2 2018

AZC001-017-030000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0138.000000T0000Z-180903T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Apache-Navajo-
335 PM MST SUN SEP 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MST FOR
APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

At 334 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is expected to continue.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Low Mountain, Whippoorwill Chapter House and Blue Gap Chapter House. 

This includes the following streams and drainages...Burnt Corn
Wash...Cottonwood Wash...Tse Chizzi Wash...Polacca Wash and Wepo
Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 10985 3611 10995 3589 11014 3597 11028
      3627 11002

$$

KD

514 
WGUS75 KFGZ 022355
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
455 PM MST SUN SEP 2 2018

AZC001-017-030003-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0138.000000T0000Z-180903T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Apache-Navajo-
455 PM MST SUN SEP 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 500 PM MST...

The heavy rain has ended over the Polacca wash. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3622 10985 3611 10995 3589 11014 3597 11028
      3627 11002

$$

RR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
948 AM MST Sun Sep 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the early part of next week. Thunderstorms will be most
numerous from the Mogollon Rim northward. Otherwise, expect cool
mornings and near normal high temperatures through the period. A
drying trend is expected toward the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another active day is expected from the Mogollon Rim
northward. There are some key differences today in the flow which
will transition us toward more of a flash flood threat than the
severe weather threat we saw yesterday. Weak flow aloft will
result in less shear and slow storm motion promoting the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Storms are expected to develop
over the higher terrain in the next hour or two with a general
storm motion toward the east-southeast.

Current forecast handles this well and no updates are needed at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...Expect less shear today as a
trough settles into the area, moving higher shear values south
and southeast of our CWA. Temperatures at 500mb will range from
-9C to -11C for the next few days, with warming developing from
south to north by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Expect slower moving storms today through Tuesday or Wednesday as
the trough axis remains over the state. The main storm threat will
shift from severe, to slower moving and heavy rain producing
storms. Colder than normal temperatures aloft will keep the
threat for hail around, but more likely smaller hail when
compared to Saturday.

Eventually, warmer temperatures aloft develop as high pressure and
drier westerly flow develops off the California coast. Expect a
drying and warming trend toward the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered thunderstorms will
develop into this afternoon, especially along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds
are possible near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler conditions and light winds are expected
today. Anticipate scattered afternoon showers and thundertorms,
mainly across higher terrain features.

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue Monday and Tuesday, with a downward trend by Wednesday.
Temperatures will range from around normal to just below normal,
with generally light west through southwest winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/Peterson
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...ET

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1132 AM MST SUN SEP 2 2018

AZZ013-016-021915-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
1132 AM MST SUN SEP 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM
MST...

At 1130 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Aripine, or 16 miles northeast of Forest Lakes,
moving east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Heber-Overgaard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 11058 3447 11064 3457 11051 3443 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 252DEG 6KT 3445 11055

TPS