Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

326 
WGUS75 KFGZ 240053
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
553 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

AZC025-240200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0115.000000T0000Z-180824T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
553 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 540 PM MST, gauge reports for Big Bug Creek in Mayer reported a 
level of 6.6 feet and rising, this is a rise of 5.1 feet. Heavy 
rains have moved south of Mayer and additional heavy rainfall is not 
anticipated. Flash flooding will continue to move southeast through 
Big Bug Creek toward Spring Valley and Cordes Lakes this evening.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Prescott Valley, Dewey-Humboldt, Mayer, Poland Junction and Spring 
Valley.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Little Wolf
Creek...Big Bug Creek...Chaparral Gulch...Lynx Creek...Brushy Wash...
Cedar Creek...Grapevine Creek...Agua Fria River...Wolf Creek...
Hackberry Creek and Yarber Wash.

This includes State Route 69 between mile markers 265 and 283.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Heavy rainfall over the Goodwin fire scar will likely trigger life
threatening flash floods and debris flows in and downstream of the
fire area. Residences near drainages and creeks, particularly Big Bug
Creek and surrounding tributaries such as Grapevine Creek and
Hackberry Creek, may be affected by high water and debris flows.
Heavy rains may cause dangerous flooding across roadways in Mayer
near Big Bug Creek. Move away from drainages now!

&&

LAT...LON 3456 11220 3441 11218 3437 11216 3432 11213
      3437 11221 3437 11229 3446 11233 3456 11231

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
332 PM MST Thu Aug 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoon moisture will bring another round of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday. Drier air advecting
into the region will lead to a downturn in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm
activity is ongoing across northern Arizona this afternoon. Storms
have been most numerous across Coconino and Yavapai counties with
more isolated activity over eastern portions of the Rim. Latest
hi-res guidance indicates storm activity will diminish through the
evening hours with little in the way of overnight convection.

Another active monsoon day looks to be on tap for Friday. Moisture
will slightly decrease over northern portions of the area so
expect thunderstorms to be more focused along the Rim from roughly
Flagstaff to the White Mountains with more isolated activity to
the north. Drier air will continue to slowly advect into the
region over the weekend resulting in a continued decrease in
convection. However, enough moisture will remain in the White
Mountains for scattered to numerous storms each afternoon.

A drier airmass will remain in place early next week so we are
only expecting isolated monsoon activity each afternoon. Long
range model guidance indicates these drier conditions could last
well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Sct-nmrs shra/tsra and isold +tsra
diminishing after 02z. Most active areas along and west of a KPGA-
KGCN-FLG-KSOW line. Brief MVFR/IFR possible in the strongest cells.
Light winds, except for thunderstorm outflows. Shower and
thunderstorm activity decreases Friday with the most active areas
along the Rim from KFLG southeast to the White Mountains. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain over the district
with good chances for showers and thunderstorms again Friday. Drier
air will slowly move in beginning Saturday resulting in a downturn
in shower and thunderstorm activity for areas north and east of the
Mogollon Rim.

Sunday through Tuesday...Drier air will remain over the region
leading to decreased shower and thunderstorm activity. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are still expected in the White
Mountains region each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1158 AM MST THU AUG 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW YARNELL            34.22N 112.75W
08/22/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THIS IS A POST-EVENT REPORT. ARIZONA DEPT.
            OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTS SR 89 IS CLOSED IN
            BOTH DIRECTIONS FROM FLOODING AT MILE POST
            277.4 (ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF SR 71).

&&

MCT