Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Grand Forks, ND

286 
WWUS43 KFGF 040112
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
712 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

MNZ004-007-008-013>015-022-027-031-040215-
/O.CAN.KFGF.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180104T1700Z/
Kittson-West Marshall-East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
Mahnomen-West Becker-East Otter Tail-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Warren, 
Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, 
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, 
Erskine, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Detroit Lakes, Perham, 
New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, and Battle Lake
712 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Overnight low temperatures will be a bit warmer than forecast due
to clouds moving into the area. This combined with a very light
wind will mean wind chill temperatures will remain above negative
25. 

$$

MNZ005-006-009-016-017-023-024-028-032-041700-
/O.CON.KFGF.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180104T1700Z/
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-Wadena-
Including the cities of Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Alida, 
Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, 
Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wolf Lake, Wadena, and Menahga
712 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to around 25 below. 

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northwest 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM CST Thursday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

649 
WWUS43 KFGF 040549
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

MNZ005-006-009-016-017-023-024-028-032-040700-
/O.CAN.KFGF.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180104T1700Z/
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-Wadena-
Including the cities of Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Alida, 
Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, 
Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Wolf Lake, Wadena, and Menahga
1149 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will be near calm overnight into Thursday morning. 

$$

dtr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

Updated forecast for today based on temps and clouds trends. More
sun today as clouds have eroded and or departed. Temps still
struggling with current readings in the single digits below zero.
Not much more improvement today is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

The gusty northwest winds from last evening are finally beginning
to subside, and most locations are currently around 10 to 15 mph.
Temperatures have been slow to fall due to the wind staying up, so
the coldest temperatures and wind chill readings are over
northeast North Dakota at 25 below to 30 below zero. Some areas
are not quite this cold, but will continue the wind chill advisory
until later this morning. With the decreasing winds, there may be
a little drifting snow in open areas early this morning, but not
for long.

Should be a good amount of sun today, with highs in the single
digits above and below zero. Will let the day shift take another
look at wind chills tonight, but wind speeds may be light enough
that one may not be needed. Models have been waffling around with
pcpn chances tonight. It still looks like a gradient will set up
over central ND and possibly our western FA, where there is some
weak warm advection and an upper jet. This may be able to squeeze
out some flurries or a dusting of light snow from Devils Lake to
Valley City.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

Northwest flow aloft remains over the area through 84 hours. Upper
level jet also remains over the area but begins to shift east of the
area Fri night. Precipitable water also increases after Fri night.
Jet streak/short wave forecast to move through Thu night and may
produce flurries/very light snow in the far western zones.

Another upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will approach
the area Sat and produce another round of light warm advection snow
for much of the forecast area. The GFS was the faster solution over
the ECMWF.

Split flow develops over North America in the extended period/Sat
through Tue/. Long wave ridge over western North America shifts into
AK with troughs moving into the West Coast. Long wave trough over
eastern North America weakens and expands into the northern
Atlantic. Models were in reasonable agreement up to Sat morning.
However the area remains mostly under northwest flow aloft. GFS and
ECMWF differ in how they handle the split flow and become out of
phase by Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

VFR conditions expected with northerly light winds becoming
light and variable this evening and into the overnight under
surface high pressure. High BKN deck may skirt the DVL area
overnight otherwise SKC or SCT high clouds at TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
400 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous wind chills are expected this morning and will be
possible in some areas again tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hazardous wind chills are possible in some areas Thursday night
and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.