Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 31, 2018Becker County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2018, 10:45 PM CDT for Becker County, Minnesota. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2018, 10:45 PM CDT (03:45 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2018, 11:45 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND

County Becker County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 7:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 7:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
705 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Cold front located from NW of Bemidji to near Mahnomen to just
NW of Fargo to Lisbon. Just enough shear aloft and upper level
energy for storms to form the last 2 hours in Beltrami county on
the SW edge of a line of storms that extended into Ontario. In the
past 15 min have noticed CU field is growing via vsbl satellite
pic along the front to north of Fargo and we are starting to see
t-storms get going. SPC analysis shows surface CIN increasing
already in SE ND with little CIN yet in MN fcst area. The one
storm NW of Bemidji became supercellular with large hail but as
line of broken storms form it is not clear how strong the new
storms will get as the environment become unfavorable for
intensification soon. Scattered light rain showers Grafton/Grand
Forks area moving slowly east. Updated pops to reflect current
conditions and fcst idea of a risk of a few storms thru the night
along the front into WC MN, but not severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Convection chances and strength tonight will be the main issue for
the period.

Northwesterly flow aloft with a digging shortwave trough has
helped push a cold front into our northern counties. As of 19Z,
the front had passed through DVL and GAF over to BDE. So far the
CAPE along the front has been very limited, and only a few rain
showers have been moving into northwestern MN. SPC meso analysis
has the northern counties near the front well capped. However,
ML CAPE values are in the 1000-1500 J/kg across parts of
southeastern ND. Several of the high res runs such as the HRRR and
a couple of HopWRF members have storms blossoming along the front
between 22 and 00Z as the front pushes south into the area of high
instability. The instability area is pretty narrow, and deep layer
bulk shear is rather marginal with 25 to 30 kts. However, shear is
more than we have seen lately, and some high based thunderstorms
with the potential for large hail and damaging winds are not out
of the question for a few hours this evening. The main band of
thunderstorms will push southeastward by 03Z, although several of
the CAMs have additional activity developing behind the surface
cold front. Will continue to keep some POPs going for much of the
night into tomorrow morning.

High pressure will be building in behind the cold front tomorrow,
with north winds bringing continued cold air advection for much of
the day. Temps should stay mainly in the low 70s, although some
upper 60s will be possible in the southeast with clouds hanging
around a bit longer.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Northwest flow aloft prevails Wednesday night in the wake of a
shortwave trough. Surface flow shifts as we head into Thursday
morning, becoming southerly and allowing moisture to advect into the
region. The surface to 850mb flow continues to increase through the
day on Thursday with enhanced long-fetch moisture flow into the
region. A shortwave ridge will be building into the area at the same
time, thus allowing temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s
on Thursday and into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday with
increasing humidity.

A relatively weak cold front will push across the CWA on Friday with
a reinforcing cold front Saturday evening. Given the increased
moisture in place, instability will be elevated ahead of the front,
with CAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/Kg range. This, combined with bulk
shear of 30 to 50 knots, will be favorable for severe thunderstorm
development Friday afternoon with potentially strong thunderstorms
on Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday, several weak shortwaves will move through the
area along northwest flow aloft. This will allow several
opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

MVFR stratocu deck in S Manitoba extends into far NE ND at
23z/00z. Unsure how far south it makes it though as the main 500
mb cold pool is moving more east-southeast and models indicate 850
mb moisture weakens as it drops south. Better chc of MVFR cigs in
to NW MN tonight into Wed AM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 5:32 AM CDT, 17 hours 13 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
532 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-011045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
532 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are likely as a cold front pushes
through the region this evening and into the overnight hours. One
or two severe storms will be possible with hail up to one inch
and wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. The best chance for rain
will be along and south of highway two across Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances return to the region Friday and Saturday,
although exact details are still uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not expected.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 31, 7:24 PM CDT, 3 hours 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     HAIL             LEONARD                 47.65N 95.27W
07/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       CLEARWATER         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL FROM VIDEO POSTED TO BROADCAST MEDIA SOCIAL MEDIA
            ACCOUNT WITH TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR

&&

NC

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
730 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

MNZ016-017-023-024-010100-
South Clearwater MN-Hubbard MN-North Clearwater MN-South Beltrami MN-
730 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HUBBARD...SOUTH
CENTRAL BELTRAMI AND EAST CENTRAL CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Solway to Bagley. Movement was southeast at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Solway around 735 PM CDT.
  Becida around 750 PM CDT.
  Alida and Plantagenet Lake around 755 PM CDT.
  Nary around 800 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Camp Thunderbird
East and Camp Thunderbird West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4733 9477 4733 9518 4757 9549 4758 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 320DEG 28KT 4752 9515 4752 9541

NC

Local storm report, Jul 31, 7:51 PM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
751 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             2 N KRAGNES             47.02N 96.75W
07/31/2018  E0.88 INCH       Clay               MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED WITH TIME VIA RADAR

&&

NC

Local storm report, Jul 31, 9:32 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             DEBS                    47.73N 95.13W
07/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

            FROM SOCIAL MEDIA WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

NC

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 9:48 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
948 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

MNZ003-027>031-010345-
West Becker MN-East Otter Tail MN-East Becker MN-Clay MN-Wilkin MN-
West Otter Tail MN-
948 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN OTTER
TAIL...NORTHEASTERN WILKIN AND WESTERN BECKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT...

At 948 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Flom to near Averill. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Buffalo River State Park around 1000 PM CDT.
  Muskoda and Hawley around 1005 PM CDT.
  Callaway and Lake Park around 1015 PM CDT.
  Richwood around 1020 PM CDT.
  Westbury and Rollag around 1025 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4697 9661 4715 9619 4715 9598 4674 9547
      4641 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 326DEG 25KT 4711 9614 4696 9648

NC

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 10:45 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

MNZ003-027-028-030-031-010445-
West Becker MN-East Otter Tail MN-East Becker MN-Clay MN-
West Otter Tail MN-
1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN
OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1045 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Many Point Lake to near Rollag. Movement
was south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rollag around 1050 PM CDT.
  Cormorant around 1100 PM CDT.
  Height Of Land Lake and Dunvilla around 1115 PM CDT.
  Rochert around 1120 PM CDT.
  Toad Lake, Pelican Rapids and Snellman around 1130 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Many Point Scout
Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4674 9522 4630 9615 4680 9632 4714 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 338DEG 16KT 4704 9562 4676 9620

NC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 7:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Clay	41 min
Jul 31, 7:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Mahnomen	44 min
Jul 31, 7:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Clearwater	30 min
Jul 31, 7:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Norman	41 min
Jul 31, 9:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Becker, Clay	57 min
Jul 31, 10:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail	37 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.