Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
242 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
across the southern half of the CWA. New development is beginning
to take shape along and ahead of a cold front that is expected to
move across the region tonight. Thunderstorm chances will increase
across the area as this occurs, with a few strong to severe
storms possible. The main threat will be hail up to one inch in
diameter along with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. Due to
relatively high surface vorticity, funnel clouds and brief
landspout tornadoes could also occur. The severe threat will be
short lived, however, as indices remain unfavorable for organized
severe thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be rainfall and
cloud cover dependent, ranging from the upper 60s to near 80
degrees.

For tonight, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will decrease in
coverage along the front. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower
60s. Rain chances diminish as we head into Friday morning with highs
on Friday expected to reach the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Friday night - Saturday night: As upper-level ridging builds to the
west, showers will begin to decrease in coverage as they progress
eastwards and conditions turn dry late Friday. Mostly sunny skies
then return for the area Saturday under high pressure.

Sunday - Monday morning: By Sunday night a positively tilted mid-
level trough will begin to pivot over the Dakotas initializing
thunderstorm potential. Southerly flow ahead of an oncoming cold
front will support increasing temperatures and moisture transport
Sunday allowing for CAPE values near 2000 J/Kg and higher in
addition to deep layer shear 30-50 kts. Given those parameters,
severe storms are still a possibility for late Sunday into early
Monday.

Monday - Thursday: Conditions dry back out early Monday leaving
quiet conditions under high pressure. By Tuesday afternoon a
secondary shortwave will progress eastwards back into the area. This
will bring rain and storm chances once again primarily for
northwestern Minnesota. Still low confidence for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue this afternoon
around KFAR. VFR to MVFR conditions are possible at all sites this
evening and tonight as ceilings lower along and ahead of a cold
front. Another round of thunderstorms may also briefly reduce
visibility. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible Friday morning,
mainly for KTVF and KGFK as lower ceilings are expected and
possibly even some patchy fog.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...AH/TG
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
506 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-201015-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Western Walsh County-
506 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Although a few showers will be possible along the Highway 2
corridor throughout the day, thunderstorm chances will increase
during the late afternoon and evening hours for northeast North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. A few storms may be strong with
small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances increase late Sunday into early Monday
morning. While details are still uncertain, a few severe storms
can't be ruled out at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ002-003-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053-
201015-
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
506 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Steady rainfall ongoing this morning across southeast North Dakota
and west central Minnesota is expected to continue through the mid
to late afternoon hours. Rainfall totals up to one inch are likely
with locally higher amounts possible. This may cause some ponding
on roadways in urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances increase late Sunday into early Monday
morning. While details are still uncertain, a few severe storms
can't be ruled out at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not expected.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
503 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CAMPBELL MN             46.10N 96.41W
07/19/2018  M3.07 INCH       WILKIN             MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CSRM5, CAMPBELL MN.

&&

NC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
503 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

NDZ015-054-192300-
Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-
503 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RAMSEY AND WESTERN
WALSH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 503 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edmore, or 20 miles south of Langdon, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fairdale around 530 PM CDT.
  Adams around 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4844 9786 4820 9803 4842 9857 4854 9848
      4855 9832
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 294DEG 15KT 4847 9842

Hopkins

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
507 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

NDZ006-192300-
Towner ND-
507 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TOWNER COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amourdale, or 47 miles west of Langdon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Perth around 520 PM CDT.
  Rocklake around 545 PM CDT.
  Arndt around 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4884 9953 4894 9942 4879 9900 4874 9900
      4855 9919 4876 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 305DEG 11KT 4883 9941

Hopkins