Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Storms have fired along the frontal boundary from Baudette down to
Mahnomen, with some moresporadicc convection further south and
west along the boundary. Several cells in northern Beltrami county
have had funnel or tornado reports, which fits with 5 or more
significant tornado parameter values. There should be a continued
tornado threat during the next hour or two before the storms
become less discrete, then more wind and hail along with heavy
rain is expected. Adjusted POPs for what is going on currently,
and have the convection shifting slowly south and eastward during
the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

As of 3 pm, the frontal boundary extended from Cavalier down
toward Jamestown North Dakota. Behind the front, winds have turned
to the west-northwest and dew points were slow to drop. Ahead of
the front, temperatures have finally come up, but still not quite
as high as expected in some areas. Dew points were in the lower
70s, with even some middle 70s at a few spots. So it is very warm
and humid.

The front is expected to pass east of the Red River in another 2-3
hours or so. Grand Forks is already switching to the southwest, as
is Valley City and Gwinner. The one thing limiting convection
right now are the warm mid level temperatures. 700mb temps right
now are at least +12C over a good portion of the FA. High
resolution models show convection becoming a little stronger and
widespread in the 7 to 8 pm time frame. With the front mainly over
northwest Minnesota by then, that would be the area for any strong
to severe storms. The time window would likely be from 7-8 pm
until around midnight. Some of the strong to severe storms may try
to build southward, possibly even clipping the Fargo-Moorhead area
into the southern Red River Valley. However, the best bet may be
from Waskish to Bemidji to Detroit Lakes. With the high moisture
in the area, these storms would likely drop localized heavy rain
as well. Some models are hinting at the potential for some
lingering weak activity into a portion of early Thursday, but will
keep it dry for now. Otherwise slightly cooler and a touch less
humid on Thursday as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Forecast is still on track showing that the best, if not only,
chance for impactful weather will present itself Sat eve into the
overnight. Thu eve and Fri will be dry and still warm, with westerly
sfc winds promoting daytime warmth. By Sat afternoon two days of
evapotranspiration effects of abundant ground moisture and more
southerly winds will help SFC dewpoints to rise up toward the 70
degree mark again. This will combine with an upper wave tracking
across Manitoba and an attendant cold front sweeping through south
of the border to set up late eve and overnight convection.

Ensembles, operational and statistical models paint a consistent
picture for substantially cooler and drier weather during the Sun to
Tue interval. This surge of cooler air on NW flow would look to
suppress any sensible weather a good distance south of the forecast
area. Daytime highs in the 70s will be accompanied by overnight lows
in the low to mid 50s. Return flow should kick in mid week,
returning the region to seasonal warmth by then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Some MVFR cumulus clouds at KBJI have been going back and forth
between SCT and BKN, and some HZ has developed at KDVL. Think both
of these reductions in category will be short lived. All other
TAF sites are VFR and will remain so throughout the period.
Convection will form near a cold front moving across the area. The
best chances for storms will be near KBJI so have mention in at
that site for this evening. Storms will push out of the area
before 06Z. Winds will shift to the southwest and then northwest
as the cold front continues to push through. Some gusts to near 20
kts will be possible tomorrow afternoon at least at KGFK and KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ027-030-039-049-052-053-
121700-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Grand Forks-Traill-
Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms possible tonight between 7 pm and midnight.
Areas east of the Red River will see the highest risk. Large hail
up to 2 inches in diameter and 75 mph wind gusts will be the
primary risks. The tornado risk is relatively low but cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are again possible on Saturday, with severe storms
possible. Details are still uncertain with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-028-029-038-054-121700-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-
Nelson-Griggs-Steele-Barnes-Western Walsh County-
1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are again possible on Saturday, with severe storms
possible. Details are still uncertain with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
757 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

MNZ009-120145-
North Beltrami MN-
757 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northwestern Upper Red Lake, or 49 miles north of Bemidji, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Beltrami County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for north central
Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4805 9492 4824 9500 4837 9479 4837 9443
      4835 9442 4811 9443 4810 9442 4809 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 240DEG 29KT 4819 9482

Hopkins

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
919 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 S LENGBY              47.50N 95.63W
07/11/2018                   Polk               MN   STORM CHASER

            LOOKING TO THE WEST.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 919 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

CORRECTION FOR TIME

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 S LENGBY              47.50N 95.63W
07/11/2018                   POLK               MN   STORM CHASER

            LOOKING TO THE WEST.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
923 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     PONEMAH                 48.02N 94.91W
07/11/2018                   BELTRAMI           MN   911 CALL CENTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR PONEMAH

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     TORNADO          1 W PONEMAH             48.02N 94.94W
07/11/2018                   Beltrami           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TOUCHDOWN REPORTED WEST OF PONEMAH BY POLICE

&&

JH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1013 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

MNZ016-017-022>024-120415-
Mahnomen MN-South Clearwater MN-Hubbard MN-North Clearwater MN-
South Beltrami MN-
1013 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUBBARD...SOUTHEASTERN
BELTRAMI...EAST CENTRAL MAHNOMEN AND SOUTHERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1013 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Pinewood to Roy Lake. Movement was east at 45
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pinewood and Solway around 1015 PM CDT.
  Upper Rice Lake, Puposky and Lake Bemidji State Park around 1030
  PM CDT.
  Alida and Turtle River around 1035 PM CDT.
  Tenstrike around 1040 PM CDT.
  Becida and Hines around 1045 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Camp Thunderbird
East and Camp Thunderbird West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for north central
and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4728 9467 4728 9569 4768 9517
      4772 9442 4741 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 264DEG 39KT 4762 9513 4734 9554

Hopkins