Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 4, 2018Lake of the Woods County, Roseau County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 4, 2018, 5:15 AM CDT for Lake of the Woods County, Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2018, 5:15 AM CDT (10:15 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2018, 6:15 AM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND

Counties Lake of the Woods County, MN, Roseau County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 219 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 765 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1228 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 52 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 4, 3:55 AM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 3:55 AM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Convection, both ongoing and possible redevelopment, is the
primary challenge for the period.

Strong shortwave coming around the base of the main upper low has
been lifting northeastward from MT into southern Canada. Plenty of
synoptic lift as surface low pressure moves into central ND.
MUCAPE values are around 2000-3000 J/kg, and deep layer bulk shear
has been 40 to 50 kts. Low level jet has also been feeding into
the eastern Dakotas, so think the ongoing QLCS thunderstorm line
moving across the CWA will maintain its strength for a while
longer. Winds and brief spin ups will be the main issue as the
line pushes northeastward across our counties. CAMs have been
playing catch up, but HRRR has the line moving across the Red in
the next hour or so, pushing quickly into our eastern counties.
Most of the CAMs have the storms weakening as they move deeper
into MN, but there remains good MUCAPE and shear for a bit longer.
May do a local extension to the current watch.

The main upper low will be lifting into Manitoba by this evening,
with the surface trough and cold front moving into our CWA during
the day. Much of the eastern ND counties will see the front move
through early enough to push the higher dew points out of their
area, leaving breezy northwest winds and highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. The southeastern counties will see the rich low level
moisture hanging around a bit longer ahead of the front. Think
the morning MCS will be out of our area with enough time to
recover instability later today. Several of the CAM models have
redevelopment of storms over west central MN, and this seems
reasonable. Shear should be adequate for some of the storms to
bring some hail, although uncertain how quickly storms will become
severe before moving out of our area. Will continue to message a
marginal risk for severe in our southeast this afternoon and early
evening, but kept out of the grids. The convection should push
completely out of our area by 00Z if not before.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

12Z Thu - 12Z Sat

A quiescent period is expected. Upper level trough will extend from
the MAN/Ontario border to northwest MN Thu morning. Flow aloft will
become more northwest as MAN trough moves east and upper ridge over
the Rockies builds. Ridge building ends about Fri then shifts over
the Northern Plains by 12Z Sat.

Cold front will continue moving south and east away from the area on
Thu. Surface high pressure will settle in northwest MN on Fri
morning.

Sat - Tue

Long wave ridge over the Plains and into the Desert Southwest will
weaken and expand farther west into the Pacific. Long wave trough
off the Pacific Northwest coast will fill and shift east. Flow aloft
will become more zonal along the International border by the end of
the period.

Split flow was over North America with the southern stream along the
International border. Next cold front and chance for storms is
expected to move out of Canada around Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Line of thunderstorms expected to move across the FAR and
Possible DVL and GFK TAF sites before 12Z. West to turn to the
west tomorrow afternoon with gusts to near 25kts at DVL and GFK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 3, 6:11 AM CDT, 23 hours 4 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
611 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026-027-054-041115-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-
Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-
Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Western Walsh County-
611 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible for this morning. Expect
wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter. Also
locally heavy rain will be possible.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight.
Storms are expected to develop over the central Dakotas and move
to the east. One can expect hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and
wind gusts to 60 mph. Locally heavy rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Severe storms will be possible for Wednesday morning over the
southeast zones or roughly southeast of a line from Baudette, MN
to Wahpeton ND. Expect hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gust
to 70 mph will be possible. Also locally heavy rain will be
possible. Elsewhere no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ002-003-029-NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053-041115-
Norman-Clay-Wilkin-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
611 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible for this morning for
southeast Northeast Dakota and neighboring parts of west central
Minnesota. Expect wind gusts to 70 mph and hail up to one inch in
diameter through 9 AM CDT. Also locally heavy rain will be
possible.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight.
Storms are expected to develop over the central Dakotas and move
to the east. One can expect hail up to 2 inches in diameter and
wind gusts to 70 mph. Locally heavy rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

JH

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:06 AM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
406 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW GRAND FORKS       47.98N 97.11W
07/04/2018  M57 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   MESONET

            PEAK WINDS MEASURED AT THE RWIS STATION ALONG I-29 NEAR
            MP146.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:12 AM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 AM     TSTM WND GST     MINTO                   48.29N 97.37W
07/04/2018  M70 MPH          WALSH              ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND AT PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:13 AM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
413 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAVALIER                48.80N 97.62W
07/04/2018                   PEMBINA            ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF TREES UPROOTED AND POWER OUTAGES.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:49 AM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
449 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUTLAND                 46.05N 97.51W
07/04/2018  M53 MPH          SARGENT            ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:50 AM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
450 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUTLAND                 46.05N 97.51W
07/04/2018  M53.00 MPH       Sargent            ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.
            SUSTAINED WIND AT 43 MPH.

&&

GGUST

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 5:15 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
515 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

MNZ005-006-008-009-013-041115-
East Marshall MN-North Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-Roseau MN-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
515 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARSHALL...ROSEAU...
NORTHERN BELTRAMI...LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHEASTERN PENNINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 515 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ross to Goodridge. Movement was east at 55
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Roseau around 520 AM CDT.
  Salol around 530 AM CDT.
  Jelle and Carmel around 535 AM CDT.
  Longworth, Springsteel Island and Fourtown around 540 AM CDT.
  Thorhult around 545 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4802 9589 4897 9597 4900 9584 4900 9516
      4916 9515 4923 9480 4913 9478 4909 9475
      4888 9468 4883 9471 4878 9469 4872 9459
      4869 9447 4820 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1015Z 255DEG 48KT 4893 9585 4812 9579

JK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 3:24 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay, Norman, Polk, Red Lake, Wilkin	66 min
Jul 4, 3:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Pennington, Polk	63 min
Jul 4, 4:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Kittson, Marshall, Pennington, Polk, Roseau	59 min
Jul 4, 5:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Becker, Hubbard, Otter Tail	58 min
Jul 4, 5:47 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Roseau	43 min
Jul 4, 6:33 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Hubbard, Wadena	42 min
Jul 4, 2:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Griggs, Nelson, Ramsey	45 min
Jul 4, 2:26 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Nelson, Ramsey	49 min
Jul 4, 2:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 2 more	57 min
Jul 4, 2:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Nelson, Ramsey, Towner and 1 more	53 min
Jul 4, 3:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Ransom, Richland, Sargent	66 min
Jul 4, 3:09 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina, Ramsey, Walsh	36 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.