Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
623 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Minor adjustments to reflect current radar trends/thunderstorm
coverage, and sky cover. Forecast generally on track. Marginal
storm environment is support development, but so far cells are
remaining sub severe. Still potential for isolated severe threat.
Thoughts are that once the sun goes down and updrafts become
elevated we should see a decrease in intensity with stronger
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Clouds continue to pull out of northwest Minnesota as a surface
low pressure system lifts eastward into the western Great Lakes.

Sunshine behind that departing cloud mass has allowed for
significant warming and destabilization of the lower atmosphere
across eastern ND and the Red River Valley corridor... ahead of an
approaching midlevel shortwave trof. Showers and thunderstorms
are firing across eastern ND in advance of a surface trof now
located along a Langdon to Jamestown line. The main mid level
circulation is north of the CanAm border... and is lifting into
the Lake Winnipeg region attm. Given the proximity to the mid
level cold pool and stronger surface forcing, isolated strong to
severe convection is more likely nearer the CanAm border,
effectively along and north of the Highway 2 corridor in
northeast ND and far northwest MN through the late afternoon an
early evening.

HRRR guidance is generally an hour or so too fast on timing
storms across the area through this late afternoon into early
evening. Ensemble guidance shows shortwave energy pushing out of
northwest MN from 00 to 03z, so storm activity should diminish
there with sunset. Expect fair skies with light southwest winds
through evening and overnight hours.

Monday should see fair skies and light southwest winds early...
with increasing clouds and an increased risk for thunderstorms
late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Monday night... A warm front will lift across South Dakota during
the day and is expected to move into North Dakota Monday night into
Tuesday increasing chances for thunderstorms. With the introduction
of the low level jet there is potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. SPC has a day 2 slight risk highlighting the area
around where the MN/ND/SD borders meet for elevated thunderstorms
with the primary threat of hail. The main risk area will be
southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota.

Tuesday... An active period looks to continue into Tuesday.
Thunderstorms possible Tuesday morning across North Dakota and into
northern Minnesota north of a warm front. In this warm sector
unstable and moist air could allow for strong to severe storms. The
main inhibiting factor looks to be warm mid levels leading to a cap.
This threat continues later in the as well especially after surface
heating provides for a chance to help break the cap. Excessive
rainfall is also a concern for this period as NAEFS R-Climate and
GEFS M-Climate suggest an unusually moist environment with
precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range.
Precipitable water in this range is near the GEFS M-Climate
maximum in southeast North Dakota Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Independence Day... Looks to be another active day for the
Independence Day holiday. A shortwave trough aloft associated with a
surface cold front looks to continue to provide chances for rain
showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the cold front it looks to be a
hot and humid day with heat indexes near 90. The timing of the cold
front passage will play a major role in impacts both heat and
thunderstorm related. The cold front is expected to pass in the
afternoon or evening which will bring rain and thunderstorm chances
ahead of it but will cool us down as it passes. Timing of this
passage will be important to many as it could impact holiday
celebrations including fireworks shows near dusk.

Thursday into Sunday... Behind the cold front surface high pressure
moves in leading to a dryer and cooler period for the end of the
work week. Heat and moisture returns to the area for the weekend and
with another cold front passing late Saturday into Sunday rain and
thunder chances return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms tracking from central ND into
NW MN are producing outflow and erratic winds (occasionally
gusting around 40 mph). When these storms move over a terminal
(which is more likely from KDVL to KGFK to KTVF) MVFR vis with
moderate to heavy rain (and possibly hail) will be possible.
Coverage should decrease and transition east of the region by the
later part of the evening, with VFR conditions then prevailing
through the remaining TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
436 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

MNZ001-004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-020945-
West Polk-Kittson-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Western Walsh County-
436 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will begin to develop in northeastern North Dakota
this afternoon and move into far northwestern Minnesota this
evening. A few of the storms could become severe, with hail of an
inch or more and winds of 60 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms will arrive for the upcoming work week
as an active weather pattern continues. The severe threat will
shift further south late Monday, with the chance for hail greater
than a quarter and wind gusts above 60 mph across southeastern
North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will also be possible Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons and evenings, although exact details are uncertain at
this point.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ028>030-
038-039-049-052-053-020945-
Norman-Clay-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
436 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some showers this morning across portions of west central
Minnesota. More showers and thunderstorms will arrive later this
afternoon and into the evening. Best severe potential will remain
further north and west, but some lightning and brief downpours
will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms will arrive for the upcoming work week
as an active weather pattern continues. The severe threat will
shift further south late Monday, with the chance for hail greater
than a quarter and wind gusts above 60 mph across southeastern
North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will also be possible Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons and evenings, although exact details are uncertain at
this point.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

JR

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