Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
857 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Still is a narrow window for stronger convection across the tri
state area and will continue to monitor radar. Elsewhere to the
west an area of showers with embedded thunder is moving east
north east from south central ND into the western edges of the FA.
Expecting this area to expand in coverage into the overnight and
bring up a tenth to two tenths, some lucky ones may see a third of
an inch, of rain by morning.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Cold front barreling down the valley currently pushing into the
FM metro area. Winds will turn to the north behind the front and
gust to 30mph with temps dropping rapidly. Temps fell 10 to 15
degrees in the first hour behind the front in the northern and
central valley. Gusty winds will persist into the late evening.
Next question mark is how and where convection will evolve this
evening into the overnight. Narrow corridor of time appears to be
in the next 2 hours for any strong to severe activity otherwise
rain showers expected through the overnight with the best chances
along and south of a Cooperstown to Grand Forks to Baudette line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Cold front approaching Baudette, Thief River Falls and Fargo at
20z. Initial wind shift is to the west but cooler air is about 1-2
hours behind. Initial wind shift will be in the Wahpeton-Bemidji
area by 23z. Main short wave moving into western SD and this will
move east-northeast toward the ND/SD/MN border region toward 03z
with surface low in the Sisseton/Wheaton MN area at that time.
Time frame for any convection with is short wave in our fcst area
is very narrow 00z-03z as narrow ribbon of 1000-1500 j/kg at 00z
present along frontal boundary Britton SD-Wahpeton ND area. So if
any strong t-storms will develop this is the area to watch.
Otherwise question overnight is extent of showers and embedded
t-storms. Most models do bring a fairly general area of showers
northeast on the NW side of the sfc low thru southeastern half of
ND into NW Minnesota and WPC QPF highlights best bet for 0.25 to
0.33 inch in the region from Valley City to Hillsboro to Upper Red
Lake in northern MN. Cooler air will continue to feed southward
with a north wind. Tuesday will be a cooler day for all, but
provided some sun occurs in the aftn and some of the lower
stratocu breaks up most sites should reach the 50s, though upper
40s in the Roseau area where coolest air lies. This will be a
stark contrast to the upper 70s today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

A chilly Tue night, with readings dipping to the low and mid 30s,
will be followed by a milder and dry Wednesday as high pressure
moves over the area from the east. A more zonal low amplitude upper
flow will develop during this time with a couple of weak waves
traversing this flow Wed night and later Thu. They will move quickly
and aren't likely to cause anything other than some light showers or
sprinkles. Back at the surface, a cold front is progged to push
through the region by early Fri, but is likely to be more of a wind
shift line than a true air mass change. This feature is reflected
well in terms of timing by both the GFS/ECMWF. Thus temps are likely
to remain in the 60s from late week right through the weekend.
Surface high pressure moves over the area Saturday with return flow
establishing itself on Sun ahead of the next chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Winds turning to the north in the wake of the cold front this
evening and gusting to near 30kts at GFK and FAR. Wind gusts will
decrease late this evening. MVFR CIGs expected to develop through
the overnight and rain showers, embedded with thunder at FAR, will
move across the region. DVL most likely spot not to see any rain.
NW winds and MVFR CIGs through the morning and into the afternoon
Tuesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
445 AM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054-010945-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-
Traill-Western Walsh County-
445 AM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late this afternoon
through this evening, decreasing in coverage and moving out of
the region by sunrise Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ002-003-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-010945-
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
445 AM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of the
region this morning, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing once again late this afternoon and evening.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible in far southeast
North Dakota and west central Minnesota late this afternoon and
early this evening, with hail to one inch in diameter and winds
to 60 mph the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required late this afternoon and early
this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018

MNZ030-031-010530-
East Otter Tail MN-West Otter Tail MN-
1132 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY UNTIL
1230 AM CDT...

At 1126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ashby, or 14 miles southeast of Fergus Falls, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clitherall, Battle Lake and Glendalough State Park around 1155 PM
  CDT.
  Vining around 1200 AM CDT.
  Henning and Ottertail around 1215 AM CDT.
  Deer Creek around 1230 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4615 9601 4659 9551 4636 9515 4634 9516
      4610 9576 4611 9593
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 230DEG 26KT 4614 9585

JK

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