Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Grand Forks, ND

234 
WWUS53 KFGF 282023
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
323 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

NDC063-282033-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-180628T2045Z/
Nelson ND-
323 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NELSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4805 9724 4767 9713 4768 9769 4784 9786
      4792 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 243DEG 28KT 4785 9764 

$$

NDC035-282045-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-180628T2045Z/
Grand Forks ND-
323 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY...

At 323 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kempton, or 26
miles west of Grand Forks, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Larimore around 330 PM CDT.
  Arvilla and Turtle River State Park around 340 PM CDT.
  Emerado, Grand Forks AFB and Mekinock around 345 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Grand Forks.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4805 9724 4767 9713 4768 9769 4784 9786
      4792 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 243DEG 28KT 4785 9764 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BP

538 
WWUS53 KFGF 282041
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
341 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

NDC035-282051-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-180628T2045Z/
Grand Forks ND-
341 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Grand Forks.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
portions of Walsh, Grand Forks, and Polk counties until 430 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4805 9724 4767 9713 4768 9769 4784 9786
      4792 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 260DEG 32KT 4788 9742 

$$

BP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Adjusted PoPs/Wx to account for current radar and trend in CAMs
today. Warm front lifting north has aided in local thunderstorm
development. So far this activity has remained below severe
levels and elevated. South of the warm front better instability
is beginning to spread into our south, with effective shear values
in excess of 50kt. Organized upper level forcing is still lacking
over our CWA and mixed layer is still capped, but if this cap
erodes despite warmer 700mb temps we could see isolated severe
convection through the afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 704 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

There have been a few storms in the Mayville to Mahnomen area this
morning. Nothing strong or severe, but have seen some nice sunrise
photos on social media on them.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

It is definitely a busier short term period. There are strong to
severe storms ongoing back around the Bismarck area. These storms
have quite a bit of shear to work with, not as much help from the
low level jet and warm advection. Most high resolution model
guidance does track a few of these storms into our FA, mainly
south of the highway 200 corridor this morning. It would not be a
lot of activity, just a few cells here and there.

This type of thing is expected into the late morning, through the
afternoon, and into the early evening. An east to west boundary
will set up over the center of the FA, with the best capping
(which can help suppress storm activity) south of the boundary.
Therefore during this time frame, the best chances for isolated to
scattered convection will most likely be between the highway 2
and 200 corridor. Again, not expecting a lot, but the potential is
there for some scattered strong to severe cells. High
temperatures for most of the last week have been warmer than
expected, so have bumped up highs in the Red River Valley to the
90 degree mark today. Also expect higher dew points south of the
east to west warm front today.

Looking ahead into tonight, and meaning more after midnight, comes
the best chances for severe storms. Most models are consistent
with this signal, but exact timing does still differ somewhat.
Will be able to watch and see how the storms initially fire
across western and central ND during the late evening. These
storms should congeal into a bowing line, and track eastward
through this FA. These storms have the potential to produce large
hail, but especially damaging winds. This line of storms will
likely be moving very quickly too, the bowing line could move
through the entire FA in just a few hours. Since it will occur
when most people are sleeping, and with many people camping and at
the lake, it will be important for people to set up a way to
receive watches and warnings that will wake them up if need be.
Widespread damaging winds can cause a lot of tree damage, and is
particularly dangerous to people in tents and campers. Have a plan
of action before going to bed tonight!

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Thursday night's severe thunderstorms could be exiting northwest
Minnesota to the east Friday morning. Although confidence is
somewhat low on whether convection will still be present by day
break Friday or if it will have already passed through. The parent
cold front birthing these storms will be strolling through the CWA
from west to east. Over the past 24 hours, guidance has delayed the
passage of this cold front allowing for the chance of scattered
thunderstorms to remain possible in far southeastern North Dakota
into west-central Minnesota. While ample instability and shear will
be present, a lack of forcing for ascent may preclude more
widespread and robust thunderstorm development. Still there will be
a chance for hail and strong winds in these areas should
thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon/evening. More perceivable
will be the very warm conditions poised to grip portions of the
Upper Mississippi Valley ahead of this cold front. High temperatures
around 90 near and ahead of the cold front within far southeastern
North Dakota into west-central Minnesota combine with high moisture
content noted by dew points into the lower 70s. This will make for a
hot and muggy Friday afternoon pushing heat indices into the lower
to mid 90s.

Late Friday into Saturday, a mid level shortwave embedded within
southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper level trough moves
through the region. This will create a jump in shower and
thunderstorm activity, best chances within Minnesota. Severe
potential will be limited as the previously mentioned cold front
continues to slowly move away from the region and its pre-frontal
instability along with it. Because of the expected precipitation and
cloud cover, Saturday will be mild with highs remaining closer to
80. The upper trough axis then swings through the region Sunday
producing another chance for showers and thunderstorms, although
coverage should be more on the widely scattered spectrum with
best chances closer to the international border.

Zonal flow transitioning to southwesterly flow aloft is forecast
for the region yet again as a strong anticyclone develops over the
Central Plains and upper troughing over the Pacific Northwest. This
will put the Northern Plains on the northern periphery of deep
ridging, while the upper trough pins the jet stream in the vicinity
of North Dakota. This would promote a warming trend, possibly very
warm as signaled by some ensemble guidance, while keeping periods of
thunderstorm chances accompanied by the passage of any disturbances
embedded within the jet stream.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Scattered thunderstorm activity currently extends from KGFK to
near KBJI and is slowly drifting east. Additional activity may
begin to develop as warm front lift north through this afternoon,
though there should be a lull in activity late this afternoon or
evening across much of eastern ND/northwest MN before thunderstorm
activity overspreads the region from western ND after 07Z and into
northwest MN after 09Z. Moderate rain may result in drops in
vis/cigs to MVFR, while stronger storms (particularly late
tonight) would support IFR conditions. Still some uncertainty
regarding exact timing/coverage of stronger activity, so smaller
adjustments made to catch current conditions and trend towards
latest models.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-290900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
early this morning, mainly south of the highway 200 corridor. By
late this morning, through the afternoon and into the early
evening, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible,
but mainly between the highway 2 and 200 corridor. Finally, after
midnight, the greatest risk for severe storms will arrive. These
storms will mainly affect areas along and north of the Interstate
94 corridor, but could also affect areas to the south as well.
These storms will have the potential to produce hail of 2 inches
in diameter or larger, wind gusts of 75 mph or greater, isolated
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain. Since the greatest risk for
storms will occur when most people are sleeping tonight, plan to
have a way to receive watches and warnings if and when they are
issued. Have a plan of action before going to bed tonight!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

It will stay active, with periodic chances for thunderstorms
throughout.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
114 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MNZ001-013-014-281845-
Red Lake MN-Pennington MN-West Polk MN-
114 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN RED LAKE...WEST CENTRAL
POLK AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Davidson, or 12 miles east of Grand Forks, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crookston, Fisher, Euclid, Gentilly, Huot, Dorothy and Davidson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4776 9634 4776 9635 4769 9636 4777 9683
      4787 9690 4799 9680 4802 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 285DEG 23KT 4789 9680

BP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
151 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MNZ016-017-281930-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
151 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BELTRAMI
AND CENTRAL CLEARWATER COUNTIES...

At 150 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Clearbrook,
or 32 miles northwest of Bemidji, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blackduck, Clearbrook, Gonvick, Tenstrike, Lavinia, Turtle River and
Hines.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If you are on or near lakes in this area, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4762 9554 4780 9553 4774 9451 4744 9457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 284DEG 23KT 4771 9548

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
153 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             CROOKSTON               47.77N 96.61W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
223 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             TURTLE RIVER            47.59N 94.76W
06/28/2018  E0.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   911 CALL CENTER

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
238 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             8 NE BEMIDJI            47.56N 94.76W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Beltrami           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
247 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             9 ENE BEMIDJI           47.53N 94.70W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Beltrami           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

GGUST