Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Elevated showers so far across our northwestern CWA, but there is
a narrow axis of instability extending between the warm/stationary
front just east of the Red River and the cold front beginning to
move into our western counties. MLCAPE values still around 1500
J/kg and there is plenty of deep layer bulk shear near 50 kts.
Thus, a watch in eastern ND. Progression of the cold front may
limit severe on the northern edge of the watch, but with the
instability axis still there can't rule out the severe potential.
Short range models are in pretty decent agreement on activity
ramping up during the next few hours across the southeastern CWA
into the Red River Valley, so adjusted POPs to fit current CAM
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Big gradient in temperatures this afternoon, with mid 60s around
the Lake of the Woods to mid 80s near Gwinner North Dakota.
Surface moisture return is still pretty meager across most of the
FA, with mid 40 dew points around the Lake of the Woods. However,
they are higher to the west, where they are in the upper 50s from
Devils Lake to Gwinner. Not too much happening right now, there
are some elevated echoes on radar around Devils Lake, but not sure
these are even reaching the ground. The best instability axis lies
across south central North Dakota, but some CIN remains in place.
Looking for a kicker to arrive later this evening in the form of
the low level jet. This would be expected to get going sometime
around or after dark. Being early June, not too excited about the
prospects of severe weather getting going after dark. However,
timing for any strong to severe storms should be 8 to 9 pm in the
Devils Lake region and late evening to around midnight in the Red
River Valley. Think as the storms transition into Minnesota after
midnight they should gradually weaken. There may be some lingering
pcpn in Minnesota Wednesday morning, but the rest of the day looks
quiet.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Sfc high moves over region for Wed night as upper ridge begins to
amplify from northern tier thorugh Sask/Alb provinces. Will see a
break in activity through late Thursday evening, when next shortwave
moves into area with SW flow aloft from srn CA into the Dakotas.  At
the sfc, a warm frontal boundary sets up well south of ND/SD state
line and storms/showers will develop early Fri morning mainly across
sern zones. Frontal boundary lifts to near Hwy 2 corridor by 00Z and
POPs further north than fcst indicated 24 hrs ago. Low confidence in
the lower POPs on Sat as system moves out of area and ECMWF remains
drier than GFS , but easterly flow setting up Sat night into Sun
should keep most of area dry for latter part of the weekend...with
some low POPs for cntrl ND into the Devils Lake region.  A cold
front then moves across the region Sun night into Mon, and looks
like best chance for widespread shra/tsra activity in the Day 2
through 7 timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

All sites currently VFR, with convection expected to move in later
this evening at KDVL and around the 05-06Z time frame for KFAR and
KGFK. Have mostly VCTS and Tempo groups, but included TS at KFAR
in a prevailing group as most of the short range models have a
thunderstorm complex in that area. Most of the convection and
showers will be past us by 10-12Z in the morning, although some
periods of MVFR ceilings behind the system will be possible. All
sites will return to VFR by the end of the period. Winds will
shift around to the northwest behind the convection.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ014-024-026>030-038-039-
049-052-053-061500-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Grant-Benson-
Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
959 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible from 8 pm this evening until
midnight. The main hazard from these storms would be hail up to 1
inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph. Localized heavy rain
is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ004>009-017-024-032-NDZ006>008-015-016-054-061500-
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-South Beltrami-Hubbard-Wadena-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Western Walsh County-
959 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected during the evening and overnight hours.
However, these storms are not expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1053 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

NDZ026>029-060445-
Griggs ND-Nelson ND-Steele ND-Grand Forks ND-
1053 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...
SOUTHEASTERN NELSON...GRIGGS AND NORTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

At 1053 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Logan Center to near Sutton. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Aneta around 1055 PM CDT.
  Logan Center around 1105 PM CDT.
  Cooperstown and Kempton around 1125 PM CDT.
  Northwood around 1130 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4764 9850 4783 9820 4785 9735 4733 9811
      4741 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 279DEG 24KT 4778 9794 4745 9848

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1054 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

NDZ049-052-060430-
Sargent ND-Ransom ND-
1054 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RANSOM AND
NORTHWESTERN SARGENT COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glover, or 39 miles northwest of Britton, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Crete around 1115 PM CDT.
  Gwinner, Cogswell and Stirum around 1130 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4612 9801 4628 9801 4628 9803 4641 9803
      4638 9754 4607 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 288DEG 27KT 4627 9817

BP