Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
301 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Severe weather and the potential for heavy rain remain the main
forecast concerns for the short term. Currently have a surface low
in South Dakota, with an arcing warm front up into some of our
west central MN counties. Not much happening yet, the complex of
storms from this morning have shifted into the MN arrowhead. There
are also some weak storms entering the Devils Lake region. Latest
high resolution model guidance seems to hold off on much storm
development until the early evening, sometime after 5 pm. Even
then, there are some solutions that show the most development
holding off until even later. So will just be in a monitor mode
until then.

There is still a lot of available moisture across southeast ND and
west central MN. Pretty soupy surface air with precipitable water
values over 1.50 inches. After portions of southeast ND and west
central MN picked up 1-2 inches of rain this morning, think they
are susceptible for additional rain tonight. With the models
indicating the potential for heavy rain across this same area
tonight, coordinated with neighbors and plan on issuing a flash
flood watch for southeast ND and west central MN tonight. Think
the severe threat should end by late evening, but there could
still be lingering storms and heavy rain across portions of the
area into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

The stalled frontal boundary that will be residing across the
eastern Dakotas through Minnesota will be gradually shifting to the
southeast by Sunday night. As this occurs surface high pressure will
begin to build across the western and central Dakotas as upper level
ridging builds over the northern U.S.. A general trend has been
noted in recent model runs that shifts the heavier precipitation
during the Sunday night period slightly southward into eastern
SD/western MN. This trend will have to be monitored due to potential
flooding concerns for the southern RRV and parts of
western/northwestern MN this weekend.

The surface high pressure that will begin to move in late Sunday
night will persist for much of the upcoming work week as a cut off
low and upper level ridge persist over the western and central U.S.
respectively. This will allow for warm weather to return to the
region with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s, relatively light
winds at 5 to 10 mph, and mostly clear skies.

As the weak upper level low slowly begins to push eastward during
the late week period, low level southerly return flow will allow for
low level poleward moisture flux. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase late Thursday night and into Friday as an attendant
surface low translates northward in response to upper level dynamics
form the weak upper level trough. Although exact details are still
uncertain, most ensemble and deterministic guidance suggests the
next rain chance for much of the region will come during this late
Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Looks like there will be a break in the TSTM activity most of the
rest of the afternoon. Then by early evening, there should be more
TSTMs around again, especially at KFAR and KBJI. Tried to put in
the best timing estimate for storms. It could be a prolonged
period of storms for southeast ND and west central MN. By morning
this may result in some patchy fog and lower ceilings.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for MNZ003-024-027>032-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

MNZ004-005-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-054-171800-
Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Western Walsh County-
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight.
Some storms may be strong, however severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Chances for thunderstorms return next Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ001-006-008-013-014-NDZ024-026>030-038-171800-
West Polk-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-
Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from 5 pm to midnight.
The primary threats will be hail up to 2 inches in diameter,
winds gusts to 75 mph or possibly higher, and perhaps a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The
primary threat location for strong thunderstorms will be across
the southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota. Chances
for thunderstorms return next Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ002-003-009-015>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-
171800-
Norman-Clay-North Beltrami-East Polk-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the area from 5 pm to
midnight. The primary threats will be hail up to 2 inches in
diameter, winds gusts to 75 mph or possibly higher, and possibly
tornadoes. Periods of heavy rain and localized flooding is
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The
primary threat location for strong thunderstorms will be across
the southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota. Chances
for thunderstorms return next Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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