Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
128 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 719 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/

UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

.Remnants of Michael To Track Across East and Central
Georgia...

Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach Florida as a
major hurricane at category 4 earlier this afternoon. It is now
making a rapid acceleration to the NE with outer rain bands
already affecting Central Georgia. The most immediate concern is
the tornado threat as CAPE values have increased to 2000 J/KG and
helicities will remain quite high through the entirety of this
tropical event. Tornado watch has been issued for all of central
Georgia and extending into the southern Atlanta metro.

Winds will be an increasing concern from late evening into the
overnight period as the initial tight wind circulation expands
allowing for a larger envelope of damaging winds. With a stronger
landfall, weakening will now only take this down to a Category 1
hurricane as it approaches the forecast area. As it tracks across
Central Georgia, hurricane force winds may transition to mainly
gusts but effects will remain the same with hundreds if not
thousands of trees and powerlines downed. Some could be without
power for several days or up to a week depending on how much
intensity is maintained with Michael. Have upgraded with the last
package the tropical storm warning to a hurricane warning for
Telfair and Wheeler counties. Remainder of warnings look on track.
Did not want to confuse remainder of the area with Wind Advisory
for now but did include in PNS that areas including the Atlanta
metro would see some damaging winds to down trees and powerlines
but no Tropical Storm force anticipated.

QPF with latest run has increased slightly and will now carry 4 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts but current flood watch is
unaffected.

In other news, Fall makes an appearance Thursday night into Friday
with lows for portions of the metro now expected in the upper 40s.
Something to look forward to for those that enjoy such weather.

Deese

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Little changes were made to the long term with the focus obviously
on Hurricane Michael. Did make minor tweaks to the extended
temperatures and pops to account for the latest thinking, including
a slight decrease in low temperatures next week. Otherwise, the
previous forecast discussion remains applicable and follows below.

31

A much quieter long term is expected with most precip
ended by Thursday night with just small chances for light showers
briefly over the far e central cwa. Dry and much cooler weather
is then expected for Friday and Saturday with temperatures within
about 5 degrees of normal.

Starting Sunday and beyond, a WSW flow aloft could have limited
moisture and a short wave or two in conjunction with a weak
cold front forecast to move across the area on Monday. This will
amount to slight chance to chance pops for light showers through
this timeframe. Instability will be very limited as well.
Temperatures will mostly warm to above normal but not as much as
previous.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Michael has picked up speed and will continue to rapidly pull off
to the east. The widespread precip will also begin to diminish
rapidly towards 12z. The diminishing precip trend in the TAF may
be on the slow side, but can be handled better in later AMDs if
needed. Winds are very close to shifting to the west side, and
think that should occur around 7Z. Frequent gusts to around 30kt
will continue overnight, with frequent gusts to around 25 kt
possible during the day on Thursday. VFR conditions expected after
18z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  51  76  52 / 100   5   0   0
Atlanta         78  51  72  53 /  60   0   0   0
Blairsville     72  44  69  46 /  90   0   0   5
Cartersville    77  48  71  49 /  60   0   0   5
Columbus        82  53  77  54 /  20   0   0   0
Gainesville     78  51  74  53 / 100   0   0   0
Macon           83  52  77  52 /  40   0   0   0
Rome            77  48  71  49 /  50   0   0   5
Peachtree City  79  49  74  51 /  50   0   0   0
Vidalia         85  57  79  55 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for the
following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...
Greene...Hancock...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...
Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Peach...
Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...Spalding...
Sumter...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...
Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...
Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...
Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...
Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...
Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach...
Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1020 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120230-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
1020 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Hurricane Michael will continue to have significant impacts in
central and a large portion of north Georgia tonight.

Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement /ATLHLSFFC/ the
Flash Flood Watch /ATLFFAFFC/ and the Tornado Watch /ATLWCNFFC/
for all the details on Hurricane Michael. Also, please visit our
web site at weather.gov/atlanta.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Strong gusty winds, heavy rains, and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to diminish through the day Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information this evening for
possible activation across north and central Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1241 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 WSW WARNER ROBINS     32.61N  83.66W
10/11/2018                   HOUSTON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON APARTMENTS AT THE 100 BLOCK OF
            SPRINGHILL DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800891

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 WSW PERRY             32.45N  83.75W
10/11/2018                   HOUSTON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE AT THE 300 BLOCK OF FAYE
            CIRCLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800892

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 ENE PERRY             32.47N  83.72W
10/11/2018                   HOUSTON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE AT THE 1700 BLOCK OF
            KINGS CHAPEL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800893

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     TROPICAL STORM   PRESTON                 32.07N  84.54W
10/11/2018                   WEBSTER            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALL COUNTY ROADS BLOCKED BY TREES DOWN ALONG THE
            ROADWAYS IN WEBSTER COUNTY. SOME DAMAGE TO HOMES
            THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY, WITH NO INJURIES REPORTED AT THIS
            TIME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800894

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 ENE MACON             32.84N  83.63W
10/10/2018                   BIBB               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT BIBB COUNTY, GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800895

KING

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