Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
719 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

..Remnants of Michael To Track Across East and Central
Georgia...

Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach Florida as a
major hurricane at category 4 earlier this afternoon. It is now
making a rapid acceleration to the NE with outer rain bands
already affecting Central Georgia. The most immediate concern is
the tornado threat as CAPE values have increased to 2000 J/KG and
helicities will remain quite high through the entirety of this
tropical event. Tornado watch has been issued for all of central
Georgia and extending into the southern Atlanta metro.

Winds will be an increasing concern from late evening into the
overnight period as the initial tight wind circulation expands
allowing for a larger envelope of damaging winds. With a stronger
landfall, weakening will now only take this down to a Category 1
hurricane as it approaches the forecast area. As it tracks across
Central Georgia, hurricane force winds may transition to mainly
gusts but effects will remain the same with hundreds if not
thousands of trees and powerlines downed. Some could be without
power for several days or up to a week depending on how much
intensity is maintained with Michael. Have upgraded with the last
package the tropical storm warning to a hurricane warning for
Telfair and Wheeler counties. Remainder of warnings look on track.
Did not want to confuse remainder of the area with Wind Advisory
for now but did include in PNS that areas including the Atlanta
metro would see some damaging winds to down trees and powerlines
but no Tropical Storm force anticipated.

QPF with latest run has increased slightly and will now carry 4 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts but current flood watch is
unaffected.

In other news, Fall makes an appearance Thursday night into Friday
with lows for portions of the metro now expected in the upper 40s.
Something to look forward to for those that enjoy such weather.

Deese

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Little changes were made to the long term with the focus obviously
on Hurricane Michael. Did make minor tweaks to the extended
temperatures and pops to account for the latest thinking, including
a slight decrease in low temperatures next week. Otherwise, the
previous forecast discussion remains applicable and follows below.

31

A much quieter long term is expected with most precip
ended by Thursday night with just small chances for light showers
briefly over the far e central cwa. Dry and much cooler weather
is then expected for Friday and Saturday with temperatures within
about 5 degrees of normal.

Starting Sunday and beyond, a WSW flow aloft could have limited
moisture and a short wave or two in conjunction with a weak
cold front forecast to move across the area on Monday. This will
amount to slight chance to chance pops for light showers through
this timeframe. Instability will be very limited as well.
Temperatures will mostly warm to above normal but not as much as
previous.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Hurricane Michael will continue moving across central GA tonight
exiting into South Carolina early Thursday. The highest winds will
be in the MCN area. Rain and MVFR/IFR cigs will spread across the
region this evening and continue through tonight, exiting from
the west Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR cigs will become VFR toward
mid day Thursday as drier air spread across the forecast area.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on cig heights.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  80  51  76 / 100 100   5   0
Atlanta         71  78  51  72 / 100  60   0   0
Blairsville     66  72  44  69 / 100  80   0   0
Cartersville    69  77  48  71 / 100  60   0   0
Columbus        72  82  53  77 / 100  30   0   0
Gainesville     70  78  51  74 / 100  90   0   0
Macon           73  83  52  77 / 100  60   0   0
Rome            70  77  48  71 /  90  50   0   0
Peachtree City  71  79  49  74 / 100  50   0   0
Vidalia         75  85  57  79 / 100  80   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for the following zones:
Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...
Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...
Greene...Hancock...Harris...Henry...Houston...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...
Rockdale...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...
Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...
Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...
Chattahoochee...Crawford...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...
Hancock...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach...
Putnam...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Toombs...Treutlen...
Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Bleckley...Crisp...
Dodge...Dooly...Houston...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Pulaski...
Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Telfair...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Hurricane Michael will have significant impacts for central
and a large portion of north Georgia today and tonight.

Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement /ATLHLSFFC/
and the Flash Flood Watch /ATLFFAFFC/ for all the details
due to Hurricane Michael. Also, please visit our web site
at weather.gov/atlanta.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Strong gusty winds, heavy rains and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to diminish through the day Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information this afternoon and
evening for possible activation across north and central Georgia.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
434 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

GAZ067-069-079-102100-
Upson GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-
434 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN UPSON...SOUTHEASTERN
MERIWETHER AND NORTHERN TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Lincoln Park, or near
Thomaston...moving northwest at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Thomaston, Manchester, Woodbury, Warm Springs, Sunset Village,
Lincoln Park, Sprewell Bluff State Park, Raleigh and Sunnyside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3286 8428 3278 8432 3285 8468 3300 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 114DEG 30KT 3283 8437

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TORNADO          4 W HORNS               32.68N  84.08W
10/10/2018                   CRAWFORD           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN FLINT RIVER ESTATES ON
            HWY 128 WEST OF ROBERTA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800867

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
604 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TORNADO          4 W HORNS               32.68N  84.08W
10/10/2018                   CRAWFORD           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE STRUCTURES DAMAGED ALONG WITH TREES AND POWER
            LINES DOWN ON FLINT RIVER ESTATES RD ON HWY 128 WEST OF
            ROBERTA.

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800867

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 SSE SHILOH            32.76N  84.67W
10/10/2018                   TALBOT             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ON JUNIPER TRAIL IN
            OAK MOUNTAIN ESTATES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800868

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
623 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

GAZ032-033-043-044-102300-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-South Fulton GA-
623 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN COBB AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

At 622 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Lakewood Park, or near
Atlanta...moving northwest at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Smyrna, East Point, College Park, Austell, Hapeville, Grant
Park-Zoo Atlanta, Midtown, Lithia Springs, Sweetwater Creek State
Park, West End, Sweet Auburn, Turner Field, Bankhead, Six Flags Over
Georgia, Cascade Heights, Lakewood Park, Sandtown and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3389 8460 3376 8435 3369 8435 3365 8437
      3365 8444 3367 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 116DEG 19KT 3371 8437

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