Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

To begin the short term period, deep easterly flow is in place
across our forecast area ahead of Hurricane Michael, which will
continue to moisten the airmass. As this moistening occurs, there
will be thickening cloud coverage and an increasing chance of
precipitation. The enhanced cloud cover will inhibit the surface
instability, which will in turn limit the chance of thunderstorms
this afternoon. Have accordingly capped the coverage of
thunderstorms to isolated through this afternoon. The wind gradient
has tightened as Hurricane Michael has begun to interact with the
ridge in place across the east coast, and therefore gusts of 20 to
25 kts are possible throughout the day today.

Michael is currently expected to make landfall along the central
Florida panhandle early Wednesday afternoon, then rapidly accelerate
northeastward later Wednesday into Thursday. The primary hazards
associated with Michael will be heavy rainfall and sustained
tropical storm force and possible hurricane force wind gusts.
During the height of the storm, sustained winds of 30 to 40 kts
will be possible with gusts as high as 65 kts across portions of
central Georgia. The strongest winds are expected along and south
of a line from Muscogee county to Jefferson county. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect for areas along and south of a line from
Madison county to Chattahoochee county, where widespread rainfall
totals between 3" and 5" are expected, along with some locally
higher amounts. See Hydrology discussion below for more details.
Moreover, east-central Georgia will be a favored location for some
isolated tornadoes as rainbands in the northeastern quadrant of
Michael passes over the area.

The worst of Michael is expected to exit the area late Thursday
afternoon, with rain chances ending overnight and into the early
morning hours on Friday. While confidence is increasing in the storm
track as Michael gets closer to making landfall, there still remains
some uncertainty regarding impacts. The axis of heaviest rainfall
and maximum wind gusts could be subject to change even if minor
adjustments to the track are made with respect to speed or location.
All interested parties are strongly advised to continue to monitor
all forecast updates for any potential developments with Hurricane
Michael.

Temperatures will remain above climatological normals through the
period, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low
temperatures and dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and low 70s,
courtesy of the deep moist flow over the area.

King

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...

After the remnants of Michael move northeastward out of the area and
into the Mid-Atlantic states, strong high pressure will build into
the area and remain in place into the early weekend. As a result,
long-awaited fall-like temperatures can be expected, with high
temperatures in the 70s and low temperatures in the 50s during the
weekend and early next week. Models are in fairly good agreement
that on Sunday, the high pressure will move off to the east as a
frontal boundary approaches the area. This cold front is expected to
bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area on Monday into early
Tuesday morning.

King

&&

HYDROLOGY...
Currently, the heaviest rainfall axis associated with Michael is
expected to be south and east of a line from Athens to Columbus.
The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. Widespread totals of 3" to 5" are
possible, with some locally higher amounts between 6" and 7". For
areas just north and west of the Athens to Columbus line (along
the I-85 corridor), will be in the gradient between the highest
rainfall amounts to the southeast and the lowest across northwest
GA. In the 85 corridor, amounts between 1" to 3" are possible,
with some locally higher amounts. If the track/speed of Michael
changes, this could make big changes to the rainfall forecast,
especially in the aforementioned I-85 corridor. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued along and southeast of the line from
Madison County to Chattahoochee County.

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Isolated to scattered showers are ongoing across north and central
Georgia and are expected to remain through the afternoon and
evening. Chance too low for a thunder mention for this afternoon
and evening, so will cover with VCSH at all TAF sites with TEMPO
group for SHRA at the metro sites. Deep easterly flow will keep
winds E throughout the period, with winds gusting up to 20-25 kts.
More widespread precipitation and stronger winds associated with
Michael will move in beginning Wednesday afternoon, particularly
across the southern TAF sites at MCN/CSG.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  80  71  79 /  60  80 100  90
Atlanta         71  80  71  79 /  50  70  90  70
Blairsville     66  74  66  73 /  60  70  90  80
Cartersville    70  81  70  78 /  40  70  80  70
Columbus        73  82  73  83 /  40  80 100  70
Gainesville     69  77  70  77 /  60  70  90  80
Macon           72  83  73  82 /  50  80 100 100
Rome            70  81  70  79 /  40  60  80  70
Peachtree City  71  81  71  81 /  40  80  90  80
Vidalia         73  84  75  84 /  60  80 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
afternoon for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...
Chattahoochee...Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...
Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...Madison...
Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Bibb...Bleckley...
Chattahoochee...Crawford...Emanuel...Glascock...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Montgomery...
Peach...Schley...Stewart...Taylor...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Washington...Wheeler...Wilkinson.

Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...
Pulaski...Sumter...Telfair...Webster...Wilcox.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Crisp...Dodge...
Dooly...Pulaski...Sumter...Telfair...Webster...Wilcox.

&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...King

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
350 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

GAZ083-084-096-097-092015-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
350 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILKINSON...NORTHWESTERN
LAURENS...NORTHEASTERN BLECKLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Harlow, or near
Dublin...moving northwest at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...30 to 40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dublin, Jeffersonville, East Dublin, Dexter, Dudley, Danville,
Montrose, Allentown, District Path, Harlow, Chappells Mill and
Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8286 3239 8298 3258 8341 3281 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 124DEG 29KT 3251 8300

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
442 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

GAZ071>073-080>084-094-095-092115-
Peach GA-Wilkinson GA-Baldwin GA-Monroe GA-Taylor GA-Bibb GA-
Houston GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
442 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEACH...NORTHWESTERN WILKINSON...
SOUTHERN BALDWIN...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...NORTHERN TAYLOR...BIBB...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...CRAWFORD...JONES AND NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near McIntyre to Lakewood...and moving northwest at 30
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Fort Valley, Gray, Roberta, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron,
Gordon, Reynolds, Ivey, McIntyre, Payne, Culloden, Robins Air Force
Base, Payne City, Midway-Hardwick, Postell, Wayside, Griswoldville
and Round Oak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8411 3267 8437 3268 8434 3271 8434
      3274 8428 3272 8426 3274 8424 3272 8424
      3272 8422 3269 8420 3280 8415 3280 8412
      3284 8412 3317 8359 3317 8352 3295 8307
      3293 8306 3251 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 114DEG 26KT 3291 8318 3258 8373

WIND...50MPH