Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

The short term period continues with wet weather in place and
increased chances for precipitation ahead of the approaching cold
front. For the rest of this afternoon and evening, showers and
thunderstorms are likely especially across northern and northwestern
Georgia as the front starts to move into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue into the overnight, especially
across northern and northwestern Georgia where high pops remain
overnight.

For Thursday, the front will continue to push into the area,
enhancing chances for showers and thunderstorms. As such, in the
vicinity of the front likely to categorical pops have been included.
SPC also has a marginal risk of thunderstorms across portions of
eastern GA out ahead of the front for Thursday. The main hazard will
be gusty winds within any thunderstorms.

QPF through Thursday evening is still around 2 to 3 inches across
northwestern and northern Georgia, with locally higher amounts
possible. Still watching these amounts as many of these areas have
already received ample precipitation over the last few days. A Flash
Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday evening. For more
information see the Hydrology section below.

High temperatures this afternoon are generally in the high 70s and
mid 80s across northern Georgia with low 90s further south. For
Thursday, temperatures are fairly similar with upper 70s and low 80s
across the north due to added cloud cover and precipitation and
upper 80s to low 90s further south. Overnight lows tonight are in
the 60s in the north with low 70s further south.

Reaves

Hydrology...

A Flash Flood Watch is in place for far northwest Georgia for today
and Thursday. Additional counties have been added to the Flash Flood
Watch with the recent update. Rainfall amounts are still expected to
be in the 2 to 3 inch range, with locally higher amounts possible.
Over the past few days, areas of north and northwest Georgia have
received 4 to 5+ inches of rain. As such, flash flooding could
result from the additional rainfall combined with antecedent
conditions of already saturated soils. WPC has a Slight Risk of
enhanced rainfall for today in the northwestern corner with a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across the rest of north
Georgia. For Thursday, there is a Marginal Risk of enhanced rainfall
across mainly far northern Georgia.

Reaves

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Not much change to the long term. A frontal boundary persists
vicinity of the northwest corner of GA through the end of the
week and models in good agreement. After that...GFS and ECMWF
still having differences for late weekend into the middle of next
week. GFS still wants to push drier air into the state while the
ECMWF tries to keep us in a moist airmass...while both keep us
under the ridge aloft. For consistency we have left low pops in
across much of the area for the weekend and beyond. The previous
discussion is included below.

41

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018/

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Models in good agreement for the first half of the extended
portion showing frontal boundary sagging through the area into
Friday afternoon. Precipitable water will be in excess of 2 inches
and although instability will tend to be on the weak side, a
subtle shortwave will make up for this adding lift to a saturated
environment. All this leads to high end chance to low end likely
for northern portions.

GFS is aggressive in sinking front well into Central GA through
Sat afternoon but ECMWF continues to lag the front just a bit but
also shows some displacement to the south from previous runs. Not
buying off on front making it this far just yet as models have
shown a wide variance the past couple days in positioning of
front. Will keep in low end chance for the northern tier for now
with mid range chance for southern sections.

High pressure builds in from the Carolinas with a wedge like
feature into early next week. Again, the GFS is more aggressive
with the dry air and will lean toward the slightly wetter ECMWF
for now which keeps in slight to low end chance for the remainder
of the period.

Temperatures to remain above normal through the period although
some reduction in low temps possible by early next week given
drier air.

Deese

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
MVFR and VFR conditions exist across the area with SHRA/TSRA
ongoing around the taf sites. Have tempo for TSRA at all sites
from 18-23z as convection began earlier today, and could be pushed
later into the evening as precip could linger overnight. Winds
are currently W/SW and will remain fairly light through the
period, less than 10 kts. Winds should shift back S/SW by Thursday
morning. Gusty winds expected in/near any convection. MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsbys are possible Thursday morning across the metro taf
sites, but should lift to VFR by 16/17z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on low cigs/vsbys Thursday AM. Medium
confidence on all other elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  85  68  83 /  50  70  60  50
Atlanta         71  83  70  83 /  50  70  60  50
Blairsville     65  74  63  76 /  70  80  70  60
Cartersville    68  80  67  81 /  70  80  70  50
Columbus        72  87  71  86 /  60  60  60  40
Gainesville     69  79  68  80 /  60  80  70  50
Macon           71  90  70  87 /  40  50  30  30
Rome            68  79  67  81 /  70  80  70  50
Peachtree City  69  84  68  83 /  50  70  60  40
Vidalia         73  91  72  90 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for the following
zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Fannin...Floyd...
Gilmer...Gordon...Murray...Pickens...Polk...Towns...Union...
Walker...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Reaves

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
403 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-272015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
403 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight...

...Flash Flood Watch In Effect Through Thursday Evening For
Portions of North and Northwest Georgia...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northwest portions of the area today. Up to 5 inches of rain have
fallen across this area over the last 2 days. With additional
totals of 2 to 3 inches expected, isolated instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

This activity will spread southward to affect the Atlanta metro
and Central Georgia with numerous storms. A few storms could be
strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected daily through the week. A few strong storms will be
possible with gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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