Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Mid-level clouds from this morning have been keeping widespread
showers at bay. With only isolated showers fringes of the forecast
area, and isolated thunderstorms in the mountains, POPs have been
reduced for this afternoon, especially where mid-level clouds
remain. For areas where the cloud deck has broken, enough heating
and moisture has is in place for low-level CU development, and these
will be the areas with the highest likelihood for precip
development through sunset. Similar to the last few evenings, the
sea breeze front may kick off additional convection early into
the overnight period. Severe thunderstorm chances remain minimal,
but an isolated strong storm or two with gusty winds cannot be
ruled out.

Tomorrow, a slight shift in the overall pattern as the Atlantic
ridge moves slightly inland and northward placing the forecast area
in easterly flow and moves an area of drier air into the area
tomorrow afternoon. This will once again help to keep
precip/thunderstorm chances lower (between 15-30%) once again.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

No changes made to the extended forecast. Bermuda like surface to
upper level ridge will continue to keep the southeastern U.S. in
moist southerly flow through the foreseeable future. Most days should
see largely diurnally driven convective chances in the 20-40 percent
range and some orographic enhancement in the far NE. The main
feature to watch would be a possible tropical low approaching FL by
late Monday then progressing northwest toward the lower MS Valley by
late Tuesday/early Wed. Both GFS and Euro are similar in timing but
the Euro is a bit less organized and is just a bit further south
with its westerly progression. Keeping chance pops to central GA for
Tues and Wed but will need to monitor future trends with this. NHC
currently has a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation in the next 5
days.

Temps continue to look near to slightly below climo norms thru
period.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions will predominate across the forecast area through
the majority of this forecast period. The biggest exception being
an early morning cloud deck with MVFR cigs which is expected at
CSG/MCN, and possible at AHN/ATL sites. TSRA will be possible
through approximately 03Z this evening with convection coming up
from the south, but is expected to be isolated enough to not
include in the TAFs outside VCSH. Winds will be light and out of
the southeast with VSBY affecting only MCN for a few hours
tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  70  89 /  20  20  20  20
Atlanta         72  88  72  88 /  20  20  10  20
Blairsville     64  84  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    70  89  71  89 /  20  20  10  20
Columbus        72  90  72  90 /  30  20  20  20
Gainesville     70  87  70  86 /  10  20  10  20
Macon           71  91  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
Rome            69  90  70  90 /  20  20  10  20
Peachtree City  70  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  20
Vidalia         73  90  72  89 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
245 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected over most of north and
central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few storms will be
strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the
area. At this time, the threat for any severe weather is low,
however, a few storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

GAZ008-009-312115-
Union GA-Towns GA-
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION AND
NORTHWESTERN TOWNS COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Gumlog, or near
Blairsville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Young Harris, Gumlog, Ivy Log and Alexanders Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3488 8384 3491 8408 3499 8406 3499 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 338DEG 1KT 3495 8395

WIND...40MPH