Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

This morning's low- to mid-level cloud cover has keep temperatures
across much of the region cooler than expected, and thus convective
activity has been hampered. So far the only areas that have been
unaffected has been in the mountains where showers and isolated
thunderstorms have been ongoing. Some convective CU development is
ongoing to the SE of far southern portions of the forecast area but
currently no convective precip has been produced. Isolated
thunderstorms (possibly elevated) will still be possible later this
afternoon and evening, but coverage and chances are low enough to
warrant no higher than 40% across the area.

Friday, precip coverage will be more focused to the northeast as the
moisture axis pivots to align along the Appalachians, but once again,
overnight cloud cover lingering into the morning may once again
dampen precip chances.

High temps continue to be slightly cooler than norms for areas other
than east central GA given aforementioned moisture but still getting
into the upper 80s before any storms cool us off.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. A weak upper trough
will be located just west of the forecast area to start the long
term. Weak but deep southerly flow will also continue as the nose of
the upper ridge will be over the east side of the forecast area.
Over the weekend the upper trough weakens and the upper ridges noses
a little farther west over the southeastern U.S. This will tend to
keep rain chances very summer-like with a very diurnal trend. Pops
will stay in the 30-40 percent range, with just slightly higher in
the NE mountains due to orographic lift.

Easterly upper level flow will dominate the rest of the long term
with the upper ridge building over the mid Atlantic and eastern
states.  This will Tend to favor central GA with the highest rain
chances but still very diurnal. The European is still the most
consistent with forecasting a tropical wave moving across FL and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night Through Wednesday, and headed
toward the Mobile Bay area. This would bring enhanced shower and
thunderstorm chances to GA, should this forecast pan out. The GFS
has a similar wave but slower, less developed, and farther south. So
it will be a watch and see for now.

Forecast temperatures are running close to normal throughout
the long term forecast period.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions this afternoon, with some MVFR ceilings by CSG that
should erode in the next couple hours. TSRA chances have decreased
for ATL enough to remove TEMPO from TAFs but isolated elevated
storms later this evening are possible and conditions will need
to be monitored. Winds will stay light and primarily out of the
S-SSE. Tomorrow morning may have some borderline MVFR cigs, but
VFR will be expected again by late morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Moderate confidence on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  88  70  88 /  10  20  20  30
Atlanta         71  87  72  87 /  20  30  20  40
Blairsville     64  82  65  82 /  30  40  30  50
Cartersville    69  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  40
Columbus        71  88  72  89 /  30  20  20  40
Gainesville     70  85  70  85 /  20  30  20  40
Macon           70  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  30
Rome            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  20  40
Peachtree City  69  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  40
Vidalia         72  91  73  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
238 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
238 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected over most of north and
central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few storms will be
strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the
area. At this time, the threat for any severe weather is low,
however, a few storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
453 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

GAZ111>113-302145-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Montgomery GA-
453 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOOMBS...EASTERN WHEELER AND
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 453 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Plant Hatch...moving
northwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lyons, Uvalda, Santa Claus, Alston, Center, Toombs Central, Ohoopee,
New Branch, Ponderosa, McNatt Falls, South Thompson, English Eddy,
Grays Landing, Rock Springs, Cedar Crossing, Johnson Corner and
Charlotteville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3194 8228 3193 8230 3195 8231 3193 8231
      3194 8238 3196 8238 3195 8239 3197 8244
      3197 8249 3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8251
      3196 8254 3205 8265 3224 8221 3216 8218
      3214 8220 3191 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 149DEG 8KT 3193 8232

WIND...40MPH